Sunday, December 31, 2017

Football Picks, Week 17

And we end 2017 with the final NFL games of the season.  We've heard a lot of coaching rumors, and I wonder how many of these coaches will be let go on Sunday night for tax purposes, just so they're not on the team's books for 2018.  After all, the teams that are getting rid of their coaches have to know already.

Anyway, we already know 75 percent of the playoff field, and eight of the 12 playoff teams will be different than last season.  In the NFC, only the team that emerges from Atlanta and Seattle will be a repeat participant, while in the AFC, Kansas City and Pittsburgh defended division titles.  It's also an NFL rule that the Patriots receive a first-round bye.  They haven't locked up home field yet, though, which means Patriots-Jets is one of the 11 games that actually matters this week (to varying degrees).  And we start the picks with those 11...

Jets (5-10) at Patriots (12-3): New England-All the Patriots need to do in order to wrap up home field advantage for the 35th consecutive year is beat the Jets at home.  Seems pretty simple, right?  The question now becomes whether or not somebody can actually beat them in the playoffs or if another Bradicheck Super Bowl appearance is inevitable.

Browns (0-15) at Steelers (12-3): Pittsburgh-Can Cleveland pull the upset of all upsets and avoid the second 0-16 season in NFL history?  Seems unlikely.  Pittsburgh's still clinging to those slim hopes at clinching home field, but the Steelers also know that ship sailed when they lost to the Patriots.  But there's still a chance.  And the embarrassment of losing to a winless team (and a rival at that) in the last game of the season when you're headed to the playoffs would sit even worse with the Pittsburgh faithful.

Bengals (6-9) at Ravens (9-6): Baltimore-Baltimore's route to the playoffs is the easiest of all four teams in the hunt for the wild card.  Beat the Bengals at home, the Ravens are the 5-seed and head to Kansas City.  It's that simple.  That would also eliminate the Bills and take the complicated four-way tie at 9-7 out of play (although Baltimore still gets in at 9-7 if it's a three-way tie).  They probably won't have to worry about that.  They'll take care of business and book another playoff trip for John Harbaugh, one of the most underappreciated coaches in the league.

Jaguars (10-5) at Titans (8-7): Tennessee-Jacksonville has already locked up the 3-seed in the AFC, but I expect them to go all-out against the Titans.  Why?  Because they lost the first meeting with Tennessee, and they might end up facing them again next week.  It was 18 years ago, but the season the Titans made the Super Bowl, Jacksonville was 15-3 overall...with three losses to the Titans.  That was a generation ago obviously, but you know the Jaguars will play all out just to gain that confidence.  However, the Titans will also go all out, seeing as their once guaranteed playoff spot is now hanging by a thread.  I do think they'll salvage it, though.

Bills (8-7) at Dolphins (6-9): Buffalo-The Bills have the worst playoff odds of the four AFC wild card contenders, but the scenarios that put them in the playoffs aren't completely unrealistic.  First things first, though.  They have to take care of the Dolphins before they can even think about looking at the scoreboard.  And, frankly, doing their part should be easy.  Then it's a matter of hoping the Bengals beat the Ravens (that's their easiest route).

Raiders (6-9) at Chargers (8-7): Chargers-After starting 0-4, the Chargers actually have a chance to clinch a playoff berth with a win over the Raiders and some help.  An incredible turnaround for a team that's really gotten a raw deal for the past couple of seasons.  It's not going to be easy.  The Raiders have had a disappointing year, but they'll be game, just like they were in Philly on Christmas night, and they'd love to play spoilers.  I think the Chargers will take care of Oakland, which will at least give them a winning record.

Saints (11-4) at Buccaneers (4-11): New Orleans-I don't know about any of you, but I'm excited to see the Saints in the playoffs.  That New Orleans offense is incredible, and Drew Brees has proven once again why he'll get a bust in Canton someday.  They're guaranteed at least the 5-seed, and they'll clinch their first division title in six years with a win in Tampa.  They know they're playing next week.  They'll make sure that game is at home.

Panthers (11-4) at Falcons (9-6): Atlanta-Why is this game not the Sunday night game?  The NFL can offer all the reasons they want why there isn't a Sunday night game, but call a spade a spade.  It's because it's New Year's Eve.  If it wasn't, this would've been the Sunday nighter.  Which it should've been.  Because a Falcons win puts them in the playoffs and gives the Saints the division, while a Panthers win could conceivably move around the entire NFC playoff seeding.  I think the Saints win to clinch the division and lock Carolina into the 5-seed (and a trip to the Superdome next week).  Either way, New Orleans will get the division.  Because Atlanta wins this one to grab that final spot.

Cardinals (7-8) at Seahawks (9-6): Seattle-When the Falcons beat the Seahawks on that Monday night in Week 11, everyone was talking about the playoff implications of that victory.  Sure enough, six weeks later, that game could end up being the reason Atlanta makes the playoffs and Seattle doesn't.  Great job by the Seahawks to recover from that shellacking by the Rams to win in Dallas last week, but it's all for naught if the Falcons win.  All they can do is beat the Cardinals and hope for a Panthers victory.

Bears (5-10) at Vikings (12-3): Minnesota-Last week's trip to Lambeu could've represented the Vikings' last foray outside their home state all season, barring a potential trip to Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game.  Although, if the Eagles are upset in the Divisional round (which definitely seems possible), the Vikings won't leave the comforts of their own home at all.  They have to take care of one last little bit of business first, though.  They have to beat the Bears to secure that pesky little bye they haven't locked up yet.  (They don't even necessarily need to win, seeing as their loss to Carolina is the only reason they haven't clinched a bye already.)

49ers (5-10) at Rams (11-4): Rams-For some reason, the Rams-49ers result has an impact on whether or not Minnesota gets a bye (a point that will be moot if the Vikings win).  The Rams, meanwhile, know they're either the 3- or 4-seed, and they know they're playing an NFC South opponent, so I doubt it really makes much of a difference to them.  Which means a 49ers upset here is a real possibility.  San Francisco is a different team over the last month and is definitely one to watch out for next season.  I do think the Rams will win, but this game has all the makings of being just as entertaining as that 41-39 Thursday night game in Week 3.

Texans (4-11) at Colts (3-12): Houston-On to the irrelevant games, starting in Indianapolis.  This is probably Chuck Pagano's last game as Colts coach, while I don't think Texans coach Bill O'Brien should be fired, and I doubt he will.  Houston has been dealt so many injuries this year, and next season, when they get their franchise quarterback and the best defensive player in football back, they could easily be right back on top of the division.  Even after going just 5-11 this season.

Chiefs (9-6) at Broncos (5-10): Kansas City-Does Andy Reid rest his starters for a meaningless season finale in Denver?  Probably.  Which makes a Broncos win here a definite possibility.  Especially since Denver's going to make some evaluations of players for next season.  Regardless, I'm going to give the AFC West champs the nod.

Cowboys (8-7) at Eagles (13-2): Philadelphia-Speaking of resting starters, the Eagles have indicated they won't against the Cowboys.  And they shouldn't.  Because Philly might have home field, but they've also looked incredibly shaky in their last two games, especially last week against the Raiders.  And that doesn't exactly inspire confidence in a team with Super Bowl aspirations.  Don't go crazy, but you've got next week off.  Your starters don't need two.  Use this week to right the ship.

Packers (7-8) at Lions (8-7): Detroit-What a difference a year can make.  When these two met in Week 17 last season, they were both headed for the playoffs and it was for the NFC North title.  This year?  Nothing's at stake.  Which is incredible considering this is the Green Bay Packers we're talking about!  It's absolutely ridiculous that they're saying Lions coach Jim Caldwell is on the hot seat.  He shouldn't be.  Not at all.  Hopefully a sweep of the Packers will convince skeptical Detroiters he should stay.

Redskins (7-8) at Giants (2-13): Washington-Finally the game involving the team whose players and fans just want the season to end.  It's 10 degrees outside, the Giants are 2-13, and it's New Year's Eve.  No one wants to go to this game!  People are literally giving their tickets away!  Mercifully, the season will be over soon.  And when it is, the Redskins will be .500 and the Giants will have the No. 2 pick in the draft.

Last Week: 10-6
Overall: 152-88

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