Saturday, December 23, 2017

Football Picks, Week 16

Finally, no more Thursday Night Football!  Instead, we've got a pair of Saturday games for the second straight week, one of which is technically the Sunday night game a day early.

We've got pretty much a full slate on Christmas Eve, and we should have a lot more clarity on the playoff picture before it's time to open the presents.  We won't know everything though.  Both AFC wild cards won't be determined until next week.  Although, the Ravens, Bills, Titans and Chargers will all know exactly what they need to do to get in.  That all depends on what they do this week, of course.

Colts (3-11) at Ravens (8-6): Baltimore-Baltimore's currently on the outside looking in, but the Ravens will get one of those wild card spots if they win their last two.  At home.  Against Indianapolis and Cincinnati.  So, basically, things are looking good for the Ravens to make the playoffs.  Much like the Lions last week, they'll take care of business in the Saturday afternoon game against a far inferior team.

Vikings (11-3) at Packers (7-7): Minnesota-After that grand return last week to "save the Packers' season," Aaron Rodgers is on IR and Green Bay has been eliminated from playoff contention.  It's strange to think that the Packers will be playing only for pride over the final two weeks, but that's exactly the situation they're in.  It just wasn't their year.  If they upset Minnesota, it clinches home field for Philadelphia.  I think the Vikings are just too strong, though.  They want this game to be their last one away from home all season.

Browns (0-14) at Bears (4-10): Cleveland-Last year's Browns victory came on Christmas Eve.  Can they get their only win of the season on Christmas Eve again?  If they don't, they'll become just the second 0-16 team in NFL history.  Because they ain't winning next week in Pittsburgh!  Call me crazy, but I think the Browns get it done in what amounts to their last chance.  They get a win exactly one year to the day after their last one.

Lions (8-6) at Bengals (5-9): Detroit-Marvin Lewis will coach a game in Cincinnati for the final time.  And he'll do it against a Lions team that is clinging ever so slightly to their playoff hopes.  One loss eliminates Detroit because of that loss to Atlanta.  All the talk about the Steelers-Patriots game and whether or not it was a catch got me thinking about that game during the week.  The Lions, of course, lost that one because the officials overturned a touchdown call, but Detroit was never allowed to have a final play because of that ridiculous 10-second run-off rule (which also needs to be looked at in the offseason).  How big was that overturn?  Well, it could end up putting the Falcons in the playoffs instead of the Lions, so I'd say it was pretty big.

Rams (10-4) at Titans (8-6): Tennessee-Suddenly, the Titans face a must-win situation.  But after two straight road losses to NFC West teams, they'll have to beat the NFC West champs if they want to have any shot at winning the division.  The Rams have the luxury of a two-game lead after kicking the Seahawks' butts last week.  I think the home-cooking will do Tennessee good in a game that matters much more for them than the Rams.

Dolphins (6-8) at Chiefs (8-6): Kansas City-I think it's safe to say the Chiefs have righted the ship.  Because they've looked awesome the last two weeks, and, as a result, they can wrap up their second straight AFC West title with a win over Miami.  They know they're going to be the No. 4 seed in the AFC playoffs, which means they'll have the luxury of resting starters next week after they eliminate the Dolphins (who are somehow still mathematically alive).

Bills (8-6) at Patriots (11-3): New England-Imagine if the Bills beat the Patriots, making up for last week and keeping their own playoff hopes alive in the process.  I understand this scenario is highly unlikely to happen, but a guy can dream.  It would also be poetic justice to see Gronkowski get repaid for that cheap shot in Buffalo.  A loss here won't eliminate the Bills, but it'll make their season-ending showdown with the Dolphins that much bigger.  The Patriots, meanwhile, can only clinch home field with a win and a Jaguars loss.

Falcons (9-5) at Saints (10-4): Atlanta-The winner of this game clinches a playoff berth, and the Saints can actually clinch the division with a win and a Panthers loss.  Meanwhile, if Atlanta wins out, they win the division.  It's going to be a crazy final two weeks in the NFC South.  Especially since they all play only each other.  The Falcons won the first meeting between these two, which was just two weeks ago.  That's advantage Falcons.  Even with a loss, Atlanta's in good shape to make the playoffs.  But they know they need to win at least one of the last two in order to eliminate any doubt.

Chargers (7-7) at Jets (5-9): Chargers-It was at Met Life Stadium that the Chargers started their about-face and turned their 0-4 start into a possible postseason run.  After last week's loss in Kansas City, the AFC West is essentially out the window, which means their playoff hopes are pretty much limited to a wild card.  And that could be quite a battle for those two AFC wild card spots next week.

Broncos (5-9) at Redskins (6-8): Washington-Both teams are coming off wins.  For the Broncos, it was their second straight after that nine-game losing streak.  The Redskins, meanwhile, still have a chance at finishing .500, which is only possible with wins in their final two games.  The real pressing question surrounding this game, though, is whether or not this will be the final time Redskins fans see Kirk Cousins under center as their quarterback.

Buccaneers (4-10) at Panthers (10-4): Carolina-Despite everything going on with their owner, the Panthers rallied to earn a huge win over the Packers last week.  Now they face the Bucs with a chance to clinch a playoff spot.  A win also still gives them a shot at the division title, which will almost certainly be decided next Sunday in Atlanta (either Panthers-Falcons or Jaguars-Titans will be the Sunday night game next week).  The Panthers will do their part to set up that scenario by knocking off Tampa Bay.

Jaguars (10-4) at 49ers (4-10): Jacksonville-Referring to Jacksonville as "playoff-bound" still feels weird.  It also sounds weird to call this a potential "trap game."  But that's exactly what we've got.  The Jaguars can clinch the division with a win, rendering next week's showdown with the Titans meaningless.  Although, part of the reason for that is because the 49ers beat those very same Titans last week.  San Francisco has won four out of five since the Jimmy Garoppolo trade, so they're definitely not the pushover they were earlier in the season.  I'm still taking the Jaguars, but this one's going to be a battle.

Seahawks (8-6) at Cowboys (8-6): Dallas-Ezekiel Elliott returns as Dallas clings to faint playoff hopes.  The Seahawks know theirs are virtually nonexistent.  And the loser of this game is officially out (in fact, a tie clinches all four of the remaining NFC playoff spots).  Seattle has lost two straight, including last week's shellacking at the hands of the Rams (in Seattle!).  They're trending downward.  The Cowboys should beat them and still have a shot (at least mathematically) next week.

Giants (2-12) at Cardinals (6-8): Arizona-Is there a better way to spend Christmas Eve than watching the Giants clinch at least the No. 2 pick in the draft?  I didn't think so.  On paper, this looked like a really good late-season matchup.  In reality, it's not.  Fortunately, there are only two Giants losses left this season.

Steelers (11-3) at Texans (4-10): Pittsburgh-For the second straight year, Pittsburgh plays on Christmas afternoon.  And the Steelers know that even if they win their last two games (which they should), their fate is no longer in their hands after giving one away last week.  To make matters worse, two of their three losses are to the Patriots and Jaguars, which means they don't have the tiebreaker over either one.  If they're not careful, they could end up playing on Wild Card Weekend.  In other words, they'd better not take the Texans for granted.

Raiders (6-8) at Eagles (12-2): Philadelphia-Monday Night Football concludes its season with the Raiders traveling cross-country for a matchup with the Eagles.  This is the Raiders' third primetime game against the NFC East this season.  I don't get the NFL's obsession with the matchup!  They lost to the Redskins.  They lost to the Cowboys.  They'll lose to the Eagles.  And the Eagles will bask in the knowledge that the next time they leave Philadelphia, it'll be for the Super Bowl.

Last Week: 13-3
Season: 142-82

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