Sunday, December 3, 2017

Football Picks, Week 13

Well, a lot sure has changed in the 10 days since Thanksgiving.  And this NFL season continues to get crazier and crazier.  But as the season enters its final month, we do know a few things...That Patriots-Steelers game will decide the 1-seed in the AFC, which already seemed obvious, and the NFC playoff race is going to be great.  We're going to see a 10-6 team miss the playoffs in the NFC, while the AFC is a two-horse race that will see one of the wild cards (and potentially the AFC West winner) get in at 9-7 or even 8-8.

Vikings (9-2) at Falcons (7-4): Minnesota-The Vikings have visions of a home Super Bowl.  And why shouldn't they?  They're right up there among the best teams in football.  Now they head to Atlanta to face last year's Super Bowl participants, who have been on quite a run themselves.  The Falcons have worked themselves back into the playoff picture.  This is a big one for both teams.  A Vikings win, and they still have a shot at their not leaving Minnesota at all dream.  A Falcons win, and their playoff chances become that much better.

Patriots (9-2) at Bills (6-5): New England-New England's got another division title all but wrapped up, and a victory in Buffalo will virtually seal it.  Except...the Bills might be the only team in the division that has a chance at actually beating the Patriots.  Buffalo already has wins over Kansas City, Atlanta and Oakland, and they're legitimately thinking about finally ending that playoff drought.  Do they have enough to beat the Patriots?  Probably not.  But they should be able to at least keep it close.

49ers (1-10) at Bears (3-8): San Francisco-Even the bad teams have to play somebody!  The 49ers got their only win of the season against one of the other bad teams (the Giants), and this looks like a golden opportunity to get their second.  We'll likely see Jimmy Garroppolo in a 49ers uniform for the first time.  Which means we'll get to see if there's any hope for them moving forward.  At least Kyle Shanahan knows his job is most likely safe.  Unlike John Fox's.

Buccaneers (4-7) at Packers (5-6): Green Bay-They're actually projecting a Week 15 return date for Aaron Rodgers.  Which is crazy.  But it's also an indication the Packers still think they're in it.  Although...they were also 5-6 last year before closing the season on a five-game winning streak to take the NFC North and eventually get to the NFC Championship Game.  While I don't see that happening this year, they should even their record against the Bucs.

Texans (4-7) at Titans (7-4): Tennessee-Tennessee has suddenly moved into the 3-seed in the AFC.  They've still got that Week 17 matchup with the Jaguars that will likely determine the division, but they're in good shape to make the playoffs one way or the other.  The Texans aren't.  Houston knows winning out is the only way to have any chance.  Which is simply too big of an obstacle for them to overcome.  The Titans should help get that vision out of their minds this week.

Broncos (3-8) at Dolphins (4-7): Miami-Can the Dolphins go on a late season run and actually make themselves relevant in the playoff conversation?  Probably not.  They've dug themselves into too big of a whole.  Although...9-7 is probably gonna get it done in the AFC, so it's still possible.  Anyway, the Broncos have been free-falling worse than the rest of the AFC West, so Miami should be able to pull off a victory and keep hopes alive until New England ends them next Monday night.

Chiefs (6-5) at Jets (4-7): Kansas City-Two weeks ago, the Chiefs went into Met Life Stadium and somehow managed to lose to the Giants.  Now they return for a matchup with the Jets looking to salvage something.  They were running away with the AFC West.  But, five losses in six games later, their lead is down to just one game over the Chargers and Raiders.  Can they stop the free fall heading into that three-game homestand they've got coming up?

Colts (3-8) at Jaguars (7-4): Jacksonville-What is this world we're living in?  The Jaguars are tied for first place as we hit December!  And three of their last five games are in the division (with another against San Francisco), it's not at all crazy to think they can get to 10 wins.  This week against a pathetic Colts team, they should guarantee themselves at least a .500 record, which is something you never hear yourself saying about the Jaguars.

Lions (6-5) at Ravens (6-5): Baltimore-Baltimore is the quietest playoff contender out there.  Probably because the Ravens are so confusing.  They get slaughtered one week, then pitch a shutout the next.  You really don't know which Ravens team is showing up from one week to the next.  Yet here they are sitting on the 6-seed in the AFC.  The Lions saw their playoff chances take a big hit with their Thanksgiving loss to Minnesota.  Detroit will be all but eliminated if they can't find a way to take this one, but I simply don't see it happening.

Browns (0-11) at Chargers (5-6): Chargers-Last year's Browns win came against the Chargers.  And the Chargers were so embarrassed by it that they moved two hours north.  Besides now playing in Los Angeles, this year's version of the Chargers is vastly different than last year's.  For starters, they look like the only team with any interest in actually winning the AFC West.  They're 5-2 after that 0-4 start and only a game behind free-falling Kansas City.  And...this might be the only time all season they play a home game without fans of the opposing team taking over the stadium.

Giants (2-9) at Raiders (5-6): Oakland-This very un-Giantslike season has turned even more ridiculous.  First, Ben McAdoo benched Eli Manning for no apparent reason, now the rumor is that they won't even wait until the end of the season to fire him.  They might just leave McAdoo in Oakland.  Not that it wouldn't be deserved.  I'm actually hoping they get their asses kicked more than they did on the other side of the Bay.  It would be a fitting end to McAdoo's tenure.

Panthers (8-3) at Saints (8-3): New Orleans-New Orleans saw its eight-game winning streak come to an end last week at the LA Coliseum.  And, as a result, they've suddenly got a division race on their hands.  If they don't win this week, their playoff chances even come into question.  It's possible, but unlikely.  They know the importance of this game.

Rams (8-3) at Cardinals (5-6): Rams-That win over the Saints last week was huge.  It showed that the Rams are legitimate contenders in the NFC, not just the best in a weak division.  They've got a couple tough ones coming up against Philadelphia and Seattle, which made last week even more vital.  It'll mean nothing, though, if they don't back it up with a win in Arizona.

Eagles (10-1) at Seahawks (7-4): Seattle-Because of the Cowboys win on Thursday night, the Eagles didn't enter December with the NFC East already clinched.  So, they'll just have to take care of it themselves, which they can do on Sunday night.  Except the Seahawks know they can't afford another loss.  Seattle essentially has to win out, which won't be easy with a trip to Jacksonville and a matchup against the Rams coming up in the next two weeks...then a Christmas Eve showdown in Dallas.  Especially for a team that has a reputation for being tough at home, this is a virtual must-win.

Steelers (9-2) at Bengals (5-6): Pittsburgh-On Monday night, it's the Steelers and the Bengals.  Pittsburgh hosts Baltimore and New England in the next two weeks.  They've got the AFC North on lockdown (although the Ravens are making a run).  They're thinking about home field advantage and finally knocking the Patriots off their perch.  They know they can't afford any slip ups.  Which is why I don't think we'll see one here.

Thursday Night: Washington (Loss)

This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 12-4
Overall: 107-70

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