Tuesday, May 23, 2017

Who Goes First: LA or Paris?

It's becoming more and more clear that the IOC wants to award both the 2024 and 2028 Olympics to Los Angeles and Paris (or Paris and Los Angeles) when they vote in September.  What's unclear is which city will get which.

They've both insisted that they're only interested in 2024, but IOC Vice President Juan Antonio Samarach, Jr. (the son of the longtime IOC President) has indicated that for the joint-award to work, somebody's got to take the later edition.  And he'd like the two cities to agree which one gets 2024 and which one waits until 2028 prior to the vote.  That could be where things get complicated.

I've long believed that Paris is the IOC's preferred choice for 2024, for a number of reasons.  After two recent failed bids, Paris feels it's finally their turn.  Likewise, 2,024 will be 10 years since Sochi, the last Olympics in Europe, and 12 since London, the last Summer Games in Europe.  That's way too long for the mostly-European IOC membership.  Not to mention the fact that it'll be the 100th anniversary of the last time Paris hosted the Olympics in 1924.

However, the IOC is also weary of once again leaving the USOC out in the cold.  The Olympics haven't been in the U.S. since Salt Lake 2002, and the Summer Games haven't been here since Atlanta 1996.  That's also the last time any North American city hosted the Summer Olympics.  Since then, there have been failed bids from New York and Chicago.  Do you really want to reject the first, second AND third most-populous cities in the country whose broadcast rights produce the greatest portion of your revenue?

The IOC is in a very interesting (and unenviable) spot.  Both bids are strong.  They want them both to host.  They know that the "loser" won't come back for 2028, and probably won't bid again for a loooong time.  That's why they're trying to figure out a way to make both cities happy, which is where this joint award idea came from.  And the joint award makes a lot of sense.  As long as they can figure out which city goes first.

While remaining publicly committed to 2024 without talking about 2028, Los Angeles certainly appears to be more receptive to the idea of taking the later Games than Paris does.  Paris has listed all kinds of reasons why it can only host in 2024 and flat out rejected 2028.  LA hasn't.  Since LA's venue plan calls for permanent arenas/stadiums that already do or will exist (the Rams/Chargers stadium), the four-year delay seems like it would be less of a problem in Southern California.

Is some of this willingness because LA views itself as the underdog in this race?  Perhaps.  But it could also be that the LA organizers welcome the opportunity to have 11 years to get ready for an Olympics instead of seven.  Think about the number of cross-promotional opportunities that exist between now and then.  LA's going to have at least one Super Bowl, and you'd have to figure the final of the 2026 World Cup will be at the Rose Bowl.  Those are two huge events for a sponsor to attach itself to.

Of course, there are still a lot of steps to be taken before the joint 2024-2028 plan comes to fruition.  First and foremost, the main job of IOC members is to vote in host city elections.  For many, that's their only real function.  So, they understandably want to keep it.

How would this double-awarding work anyway?  Do they vote for 2024, with the loser getting 2028 as a consolation prize?  Or do the cities agree prior to the IOC Session, rendering a vote pointless?  Likewise, if they're awarding 2028 now, what do they do at the 2021 IOC Session, when they would normally choose the host?  (Although Thomas Bach's eight-year term as IOC President expires in 2021, so maybe they'll have a Presidential election if he doesn't just get automatically reelected, which is what usually happens.)

Some critics have pointed to the potential dual-awarding as a response to the last two bid cycles, which only saw two finalists each.  Samaranch quickly shot down that notion, suggesting that Madrid, Istanbul and Australia are all possible bidders.  Are any of them as strong as Paris and Los Angeles, though?  I don't think so.  And I think that's the real reason for this push to make sure both cities get an Olympics.

Both Paris and Los Angeles are capable of putting on a great Olympic Games.  The IOC understands that and wants to make sure they take advantage of the opportunity they have in front of them.  And, if they can stabilize themselves for more than a decade while they figure out a way to improve the bid process, that's just a bonus.  That might be part of their motivation, but it's not the only one.

If I had to put odds on it, I'd say there's a 75-80 percent likelihood that we'll see the IOC award both the 2024 and 2028 Olympics in September.  They wouldn't be talking about it if they weren't going to do it.  The order is the real question.  Although, my feeling is that Paris will go first, followed by LA in 2028.

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