Saturday, May 27, 2017

Can Anybody Beat Nadal?

Rafael Nadal used to win the French Open every year.  It was more automatic than LeBron James playing in the NBA Finals (more on that next week).  Then Rafa started letting some other people win.  Stan Wawrinka was the 2015 champion, and Novak Djokovic completed that incredible Djoker Slam with his victory here last year.

A lot has changed in the last 12 months.  Djokovic suffered early exits at Wimbledon and the Australian Open and Nadal looks like the Nadal of old.  He's been the best player on tour not named Federer this year, and with Roger opting to sit out the entire clay court season to prepare for Wimbledon, it looks like this is Rafa's tournament to lose.  And how important was Roger's win in Australia?  That gave him an 18-14 lead over Nadal in career Grand Slam titles.  Had Nadal won that match, it would be 17-15, meaning he'd pull within one with his 10th Coupe des Mousquetaires.

I'm not saying a Nadal victory is guaranteed.  I'm just saying he enters the tournament as the overwhelming favorite to win the tournament he won nine times in 10 years from 2005-14.  Especially because Nadal is once again the clear-cut best player on clay.

So who can beat him?  Well, let's start with the two guys that have lifted the trophy more recently than Rafa has.  Djokovic finally won the title last year after losing in the previous two finals.  He's played for the title in four of the last five years, so he's no stranger to an extended stay in Paris.  However, Djokovic has had some puzzling results this year, starting with his third-round loss at the Australian Open.  And he wasn't done any favors by drawing Nadal in the semis.  The last time they played at the French, Djokovic won a 2015 semifinal, only to run out of gas against Wawrinka in the final.

Don't be surprised if the same thing happens again this year, as you've got Nadal and Djokovic on one side, with Wawrinka and Andy Murray on the other.  Murray is ranked No. 1 and made the finals here last year, but this is his toughest Grand Slam.  He's got a tough draw before he gets to Wawrinka, too (although Wawrinka could face two of the three seeded French guys back-to-back in the fourth round and quarters).

Should Wawrinka get through Gasquet/Monfils and Tsonga, and I think he will, I give him the edge in that semi, regardless of who he plays.  Meanwhile, I see Nadal winning that marquee semifinal against Djokovic.  That sets up a Nadal-Wawrinka final, which I see Nadal winning.  And if he does, that would mean each of the last five Grand Slam tournaments would've been won by a different member of the Big Five.

On the women's side, there's no Serena, who incredibly won the Australian Open while two months pregnant, and no Maria, who wasn't granted a wild card after returning from her suspension.  The two of them spent four years passing the trophy back-and-forth from 2012-15, only to see Serena upset by Garbine Muguruza in last year's final.

With the two biggest names in women's tennis missing, this has to be one of the most wide-open Grand Slam tournaments in recent memory.  I guess Muguruza should be considered the favorite as the defending champion, but there's any number of women who can win this thing.  Angelique Kerber is ranked No. 1, but her best result here was a quarterfinal (once, five years ago).  That was the only time she's even made the second week at the French.  She's lost in the first or second round five times, and she lost in qualifying once, too.  I'm not saying Kerber should be counted out, though.  She's No. 1 for a reason, after all.

But I'm looking at the bottom half of the draw.  Specifically I'm looking at No. 3 seed Simona Halep.  She almost won the tournament in 2014, losing 6-4, 6-7, 6-4 to Sharapova in the final.  Halep then went on to make the semis of Wimbledon.  She lost in the first round at the Australian Open (which has little relevance), but won the big French Open tune-up in Madrid.  She looks ready to make a run.

Unfortunately for Halep, her potential quarterfinal opponent is the hottest player on tour--Elina Svitolina.  Svitolina has won four tournaments this year, including the Italian Open last week, where she beat Halep in the final.  The winner of that quarterfinal is my pick to win it all.  As for which one will win the quarter, I'm going with Halep.

This tournament is so wide open, though, that it's got surprise semifinalist, or even surprise finalist, written all over it.  Maybe somebody like Lucie Safarova, who wouldn't actually be that big of a surprise since she almost beat Serena in the final two years ago.  But Safarova enters the French Open unseeded, so if she does, make a deep run, it'll probably turn some heads.

Meanwhile, other than Halep and Muguruza, most of the top women have no real French Open success to speak of.  That's going to make it fun to watch.  No result will really be that big of a shock and nobody has any idea who's going to win.  I just have a feeling about Halep, though, so she's my pick.  And for some reason, I think Dominika Cibulkova will be the other finalist.  Don't ask me why.  For a change, I expect by prediction for a Grand Slam event to be way off.  On the women's side at least.  I fully expect to see Rafa win the men's tournament.  Again.

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