Most people are picking the Penguins in the Stanley Cup Final. I don't blame them. It's the logical pick. Pittsburgh is the defending champions, had the second-most points in the entire league during the regular season, and boasts the best player on the planet. The Penguins are understandably the favorites against Nashville as they look for their third Cup of the Crosby/Malkin Era.
But I'm a believer in the Predators. I don't just think Nashville can win the Cup. I think the Predators will. They dispatched the top two teams in the West, including a sweep of Chicago, and they've got the defense to stop the Penguins' offense. More importantly, playing on the road doesn't phase them at all. As the 16th-best of the 16 playoff teams, they knew there were gonna have to win on the road to keep playing, and so far they've done it. (We also saw the Kings win the Cup as an 8-seed a few years ago.)
For the Predators to win, they really just need to keep doing what they've been doing. Their defense has been incredible, and Pekka Rinne is playing out of his mind. And you can't really argue that the Penguins have a better offense than the teams Nashville has faced already. Because the Predators played the Blackhawks and Ducks! So, their offense has been shutting down some pretty good offensive teams.
They haven't been all defense, either. The Predators have scored just enough to not have to rely strictly on Rinne. Consider: outside of the six-goal clincher against Anaheim, Nashville went 10 straight games scoring three goals or fewer, and went 6-4. If they get three and Rinne keeps playing at the same level he was at in the first three rounds, that should be enough, And, no offense to Craig Anderson, but he's not Pekka Rinne.
One of the great things about Nashville's defense is that they have enough horses to stick with multiple scorers. Kane and Toews did nothing. Getzlaf and Perry did nothing. Sure, Pittsburgh's more than just Crosby and Malkin. They'll have to shut down the likes of Phil Kessel, as well. But Nashville's formula has worked so far, and I don't see them changing it. And I think the reason it's worked is because they don't have to rely on just one defensive stopper, which is essentially how Ottawa tried to beat Pittsburgh.
I also wonder how much the rest factor is going to come into play. The Penguins have played 14 games in the last two rounds. The Predators had one of only two sweeps in the entire playoffs, which gave them a six-day break before the St. Louis series. Then they got five days between the Blues and Ducks (while Anaheim got one). Now they head into the Final with a full week of rest, while the Penguins went to double overtime on Thursday night. Everyone's tired at this time of year. Nashville's had all that extra time off. That can only be a good thing.
It's obvious who's got the goalie advantage, too. Pekka Rinne is probably the leading candidate for the Conn Smythe Trophy right now. He's the anchor of Nashville's team. The Penguins have long been successful despite their goalie(s). They started the playoffs with Marc-Andre Fleury, until he had a very Fleury-like performance in Game 3 against the Senators and was replaced by Matt Murray. This is a typical scenario for the Penguins, who usually find a way to overcome their goaltending issues.
Of course, the Penguins know that while goaltending might be their Achilles Heel, they generally need it to just be good enough. Especially with the quality of their offense. It took that offense a little while to come around, but they finally turned the corner with that 7-0 win in Game 5 of the Senators series.
Although, some of their early struggles against Ottawa were due to the Senators' style of play, which is basically lulling you to sleep. And that strategy almost worked. Nashville 's strategy has been similar to Ottawa's. Except, in addition to being an overall better team than the Senators, the Predators have the offense to back up their outstanding defense. The defense that they used to shut down the top two teams in the Western Conference.
As I've said through each successive round of the playoffs, Nashville was a very popular Stanley Cup pick in the preseason. The Predators have shown why over the last six weeks. They didn't just get lucky. They're a good team that got hot at just the right time. If they stay hot for the next two weeks, the Predators might very well be skating the Cup around their home ice at Bridgestone Arena. Because I think the team that's 5-3 on the road in the playoffs will get to clinch it at home in Game 6.
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