As the Copa America continues across the U.S., the soccer world prepares for another continental championship. This one is much more significant and will certainly capture much more attention worldwide. At the very least, I guarantee we won't see the half-empty stadiums like the Copa has had in Seattle and Orlando. The Euro is considered by many to be the second-best international tournament in the world, behind only the World Cup. And, frankly, it's hard to argue that.
This year's Euro is the first with an expanded 24-team field. It was 16 for the last 20 years (five editions), but with the number of national federations now in the 50s, it made sense to increase the size of the continental tournament. The little guys had virtually no chance at qualifying when it was 16 teams. Now that it's 24, we're seeing the likes of Iceland, Albania, Northern Ireland and Wales competing alongside the European heavyweights (although, remarkably, even with eight extra teams in the tournament, the Netherlands somehow didn't qualify).
So who are the favorites? Well, Germany is the reigning World Cup champions, so I'd say on paper it's got to be them. Also, fun fact, Germany's last Euro title was in 1996, which was the first year with 16 teams. Their previous win before that was in 1980, which was the first eight-team tournament. Will the trend of Germany winning when the field expands continue?
Spain, meanwhile, is the two-time defending champions. Although the Spanish aura of invincibility is most certainly gone. That team got old in a hurry, which we saw on full display in Brazil two years ago. Then there's France. The French have a reputation of choking in major tournaments. Except when they host. The last time they hosted the Euro in 1984, they won it. They hosted the World Cup in 1998, and won it, then followed that up with a Euro title two years later. If I had to pick a favorite, it'd have to be one of those three.
France's competition in Group A isn't that daunting. Switzerland is probably the best of the other three teams. Remember, because of FIFA's screwed up rankings, they ended up seeded at the World Cup last year. Just like Romania, which is also in Group A, got seeded for 2018 World Cup qualifying. On home turf, I expect France to beat both, but with the third-place wild cards in play at a Euro for the first time, I'd be surprised if Switzerland and Romania didn't both join them in the knockout round. Kudos to Albania, which is playing in a major tournament for the first time.
On paper, Group B might be the weakest in the tournament. Seeded England, which needs to overcome some major tournament choking questions of its own, is only ranked 11th in the world (sixth in Europe). This group works in their favor, though. Slovakia and Russia will both be tough games, and the Wales match will be significant for another reason. But I don't see any way England doesn't come out of this. Russia needs a good showing heading into the Confederations Cup and World Cup that they'll be hosting in the next two summers, and reaching the round of 16 would certainly qualify.
Germany (which is somehow only ranked fourth in the world and second in UEFA, gotta love those FIFA rankings!) is joined in Group C by Ukraine, Poland and Northern Ireland. Like Wales, Northern Ireland is making its Euro debut, and it's been 30 years since their last major international tournament of any type--the 1986 World Cup. Also like Wales, I think Northern Ireland's stay in France will be limited to the three group games. I'll give Ukraine second place behind the Germans, but Poland should also advance as one of the best third-place teams.
While Group E is viewed as the Group of Death, I'd argue that Group D is just as tough. You've got Spain, the two-time defending champions, the Czech Republic, which is better than its ranking, perennial World Cup participant Croatia, and Turkey. Spain is still the group favorites, but the battle for the other two qualifying places will be a good one. I'm going to say Croatia finishes second and the Czechs advance in third, but I'm not sleeping on Turkey. They made the semis eight years ago , beating both the Czech Republic and Croatia along the way.
I never fare well when I try to predict what's going to happen in a Group of Death. But I guess that's what happens when you have four good teams, which is certainly the case with Belgium, Italy, Ireland and Sweden. I still have absolutely no idea how Belgium is so highly ranked, let alone No. 2 in the world! (Again, Germany is the World champions.) Italy's out to redeem itself after the World Cup, and, frankly, I think they're better than Belgium. I give them the group win and Belgium the No. 2 spot. The Ireland-Spain game will decide who advances in third place, and I'm gonna say that's Sweden.
Finally, Group F, which contains two top-10 teams according to the latest FIFA rankings in Portugal and Austria. Not having seen Austria, I don't know if they have a smoke-and-mirrors ranking some of these European teams have become known for. But Portugal is a known commodity, and Cristiano Ronaldo is arguably the best player in this tournament. These two advance, and I think this will be the other group where only two move forward. Hungary will be dangerous down the road, but I don't think they'll be a major threat here. Congratulations to Iceland on qualifying for a major tournament for the first time (after just missing out on making the World Cup in the home-and-home playoffs).
It's harder to handicap the knockout round since the matchups are in flux until you know the third-place teams. According to the way I have group play going, though, this would be the round of 16: Switzerland-Ukraine, Spain-Sweden, England-Croatia, Portugal-Belgium, Germany-Romania, Italy-Czech Republic, France-Poland, Russia-Austria. My quarterfinals are then Switzerland-Spain, England-Portugal, Germany-Italy and France-Austria. Give me Spain-Portugal and Germany-France as the semifinals and Germany over Portugal in the final (which would give Portugal a trip to Russia for the Confederations Cup since Germany's already going as World Cup champs).
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