Jurgen Klinsmann has said that he thinks Copa America will be a better tournament than Euro 2016. While that's a bit ridiculous on the surface, you can see his point. This will be the best tournament on American soil since the 1994 World Cup, and it's the first time the U.S. is hosting a major international tournament it actually has a chance to win.
No, I don't think the U.S. is the favorite heading into the Copa. Argentina and Mexico are the two best teams in the Americas, so that's my pick for the final. But the 1994 World Cup was definitely a happy to be there type of situation. This one is much different. It feels much different. There's a chance for disappointment. We didn't have that 22 years ago.
This is also much different than any of the tournaments the U.S. hosts on a regular basis. Why? Because it's not just CONCACAF teams. It's no secret that, along with Costa Rica, the U.S. and Mexico are the top teams in CONCACAF. So, it's actually kind of refreshing to see some other nations for a change. And the fact that the Copa is combining both Americas for the first time is pretty freakin' awesome, too! Because, while Klismann's claim that this tournament will be better than the Euro is a stretch, it's still gonna be pretty good. There are a lot of quality teams in the Americas.
As it stands, the U.S. might not be the favorites in Group A (which is actually fine with me, since a second-place finish would mean I see the U.S. in the quarterfinals at MetLife Stadium). Although, who can forget that memorable win over Colombia at the Rose Bowl during that 1994 World Cup? Well, as fate would have it, what's the opening game of the Copa? Should the Americans beat James and Co. (or even get a draw), winning the group is entirely plausible.
Either way, I think the U.S. and Colombia will be the two teams to advance out of Group A. Costa Rica is the strongest unseeded CONCACAF team, but the USA typically handles the Costa Ricans in the home game during World Cup qualifying (and even in the Gold Cup when they actually play each other), so I don't see why this would be any different. I'm not discounting Paraguay, which is the best of the four bottom-ranked South American squads, but I think if either of the two favorites is going to get upset, it'll be by Costa Rica.
While the U.S. and Colombia were handed the most difficult opponents possible, that wasn't the case for Brazil. Somehow, the Brazilians ended up with the weakest group of them all. And it's not even close. I'll be surprised if they give up a goal in the group stage. There probably won't even be much suspense over who'll finish second. Ecuador is by far the second-best team in Group B. Haiti's the worst team in the tournament.
Group C features Mexico and Uruguay, which will be a great opening game in Phoenix on Sunday night (Sunday Night Futbol?) The winner of that one has the inside track on first place in the group. Although, I think they'll both advance fairly easily. Jamaica and Venezuela aren't remotely on the same level as those two regular World Cup participants, both of whom have legitimate reasons to think they can win this tournament (which, for Mexico, would go along with its 2015 Gold Cup title).
Chile beat Argentina in penalty kicks to win last year's Copa America and keep Messi's streak of never having won a major tournament in tact. After finishing second in the World Cup (in Brazil) and the Copa America (in Chile), the top-ranked Argentines will leave their home continent and head north to try and finally get that monkey off their backs.
But, of course, they're not just in the same group as Chile, that's their opening game. Winning this one is nowhere near as important as the final, but it'll set the tone for the rest of the tournament. Either way, they both know they're going to have a difficult quarterfinal against either Mexico or Uruguay. Ultimately, winning the group might not matter, especially if Mexico doesn't win Group C, but you know Argentina wants a little bit of payback after last year's final, so they'll be out for blood in that opening game against Chile. They want to send a message that they're the team to beat.
Argentina definitely is the team to beat. They're the best team in the Americas, and it's not really that close. Brazil's biggest concern this summer is winning Olympic gold at home. Although, after their World Cup embarrassment and an early exit at last year's Copa, you have to wonder if they care more about this tournament than they're letting on. The draw works out well for the Brazilians, so I can see them making a run.
Once it gets to the knockout stage, Klinsmann is right. The eight teams that reach the quarterfinals will all be quality. My quarterfinals are Colombia-Ecuador, Argentina-Uruguay, Brazil-USA and Mexico-Chile. In the semis, I see Argentina knocking off Colombia to make it three finals in major tournaments in as many years. In the final they meet Mexico, which beats Chile, then Brazil. Except this time, Argentina gets it done. (And Messi loves playing in America so much that he leaves Barcelona for MLS.)
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