Monday, June 27, 2016

Ready For Wimbledon

The Wimbledon men's and women's singles champions will receive 3 million pounds.  On Thursday, that was $3.3 million.  On Friday, it was down to $2.7 million.  And it could drop even lower by Monday morning.  Still think that British decision to withdraw from the European Union won't have an impact?  Fortunately for the players, Wimbledon starts on Monday, so they'll be receiving those checks soon.

Roger Federer's decision to sit out the French Open must've been a tough one, but it was also probably the right one.  He knows that Wimbledon is his best chance to win another Slam, so why spend two weeks grinding it out on clay then turn around and play Wimbledon less than a month later?  Especially if he was injured.  Instead he rehabbed and is as healthy as he's going to be for his best tournament.

In each of the last two years, Roger has lost the Wimbledon final to Novak Djokovic.  That can't happen this year.  Why?  Because they were drawn into the same side of the draw.  But...if anyone's capable of preventing Djokovic from making a seventh straight Grand Slam final, Roger Federer's probably the guy.  Especially at Wimbledon.  Even if it doesn't seem likely.

Men's tennis right now is Novak Djokovic and everybody else.  He didn't just get the French Open monkey off his back in Paris, he did something that even Roger and Rafa have never done.  In fact, he's the first guy to do it since 1969.  He completed the "Djoker Slam," which started here last year (it's six out of eight overall, during which time Federer and Nadal have won a combined zero).

Heading into Wimbledon last year, we were all focused on the "Serena Slam" and wondering if she could win all four in the same calendar year.  I think there's a real possibility we'll go into the US Open wondering the same thing about Djokovic.  Because he's just on a completely different level from everybody else.

On paper, Federer would seem to be the most likely person to upset Djokovic.  And if he wins that semi, I can easily see him lifting the trophy on the final Sunday.  With the way Djokovic is playing, though, I just can't see that happening.  Which means it's up to Andy Murray.

Murray is probably hoping Federer wins that semi.  Because I think he's sick of losing Grand Slam finals to Novak Djokovic.  Both this year and five overall (although, he has beaten him twice).  Although, Murray's also 0-3 against Federer in Grand Slam finals, so he might be hoping they both get upset (he's been in 10 Grand Slam finals, but only played those two).

And don't forget that whole pressure of being the British guy thing.  Murray's win here in 2013 will obviously always remain the highlight of his career, and it certainly has made things easier for him at Wimbledon.  But he still feels it every year.  Add in the fact that he hasn't reached the final here since he won, and the two final losses to Djokovic already this year, and you know Andy Murray will be feeling the heat during the fortnight.

Meanwhile, Serena Williams hasn't won a Grand Slam title since she completed the "Serena Slam" here last year.  We all remember that shocking upset in the US Open semis, and this year she's lost the first two finals to Angelique Kerber and Garbine Muguruza, who both claimed their first Grand Slam titles.  As a result, Muguruza is up to No. 2 in the world and Kerber is No. 4.

Fortunately for Serena, they're both on the other side of the draw.  Of course, she has Roberta Vinci, the same woman her at the US Open as her potential quarterfinal opponent, though.  At Wimbledon, it should be a different story.  On grass, really the only person who can beat Serena is Serena.  And when her back's up against the wall, she has a tendency to turn up her game.

Remember when she dominated the US Open after going 0-for-3 in Slams to start the year?  Or last year, when she was going for the Serena Slam?  Well, I think she's feeling that pressure once again.  Most people expected her to be challenging Margaret Court's record of 24 Slam wins by now, if not already past it.  But she's been stuck on 22 since last year's Wimbledon!  It's not really through any fault of her own that she's in this situation.  Vinci, Kerber and Muguruza each had the match of her life in their win over Serena.  But her aura of invincibility is definitely gone.

There are plenty of women who could give Serena problems.  Petra Kvitova's a two-time champ, and she's in Serena's half of the draw.  So is former finalist Aga Radwanska.  And don't forget Venus.  She's won Wimbledon four times and is seeded eighth, where she could face Muguruza in the quarters.  Muguruza lost to Serena in the final here last year, so it wouldn't come as a shock to see her make it two in a row.  She absolutely has the look of a multiple Grand Slam winner.

For my picks, though, I've got to go with the chalk.  The Novak Djokovic we're seeing right now might be better than Roger Federer was in his prime.  And in his prime, you went against Roger at a Grand Slam at your own peril.  And while I do think Serena is susceptible to an upset, I can't pinpoint the exact player I think will pull it.  As a result, I've gotta think she makes it back-to-back Wimbledon titles for the third time.

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