NL Cy Young. This is by far the most competitive of the eight awards that will be handed out during MLB's Awards Week, and I don't envy the voters. Seriously, how do you choose? Neither choice is a bad one, and you're not wrong if you prefer one over the other. In any other year, it would be a slam dunk. But this year, the difference between Greinke and Arrieta is so razor-thin that this could end up being one of the closest Cy Young races in history.
Before getting into candidates 1 and 1A, let's not forget about the third finalist. Clayton Kershaw was so dominant last year that he unanimously won the Cy Young and added MVP honors, becoming the first National League pitcher to be named MVP since 1967! It's not like he was a slouch this year. It just wasn't quite up to Kershaw standards. And he still went 16-7 with a 2.13 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and a ridiculous 301 strikeouts in 232 2/3 innings. That was only good enough to finish third!
Then there's Max Scherzer. He probably finished fourth, and his numbers were just as ridiculous as Kershaw's, proving he was worth every penny the Nationals gave him. Yes, he only went 14-12, but that wasn't his fault. Scherzer had a 2.79 ERA and 276 strikeouts, while walking only 34!, in 228 2/3 innings. He also led the National League with four complete games and three shutouts, two of which were no-hitters. And this guy isn't even a finalist!
Now for the main two contenders--Zack Greinke and Jake Arrieta. Again, there isn't much separating them. They both had outstanding seasons. And they're both deserving of the award. In any other year, it would be so clear-cut for one of them that the vote would be just like last year's. It really is a shame that they can't both win.
So how do you separate them? Arrieta had a ridiculous second half. He went 22-6 and gave up something like four earned runs from the start of August til the end of the regular season. His second-half ERA was 0.75, the best in Major League history. The All-Star Game started in 1933. Overall, he ended up with a 1.77 ERA while pitching half his games in Wrigley Field. And did I mention Arrieta had 236 strikeouts?!
But as historic as Arrieta's second half was, he wasn't even an All-Star. Greinke started the All-Star Game. He was brilliant from April to September, which is why my choice would be Greinke. His ERA, for the year, was 1.66, and it was never over 2.00 at any point during the season! Then there was the 45 2/3-inning scoreless streak (fortunately Mike Trout's homer off Greinke in the All-Star Game doesn't count). Oh, and he went 19-3 for an .864 winning percentage, and had a WHIP of 0.84.
It's razor-thin. Both teams made the playoffs, so you can't use that as a qualifier. And they were both technically No. 2 starters, although Arrieta surpassed Lester long before the season ended. It's really a gut feeling. My gut has been saying "Greinke" all year. So I'm sticking with it. Greinke a very deserving winner, no shame in silver for Arrieta, and Kershaw "settles" for third after back-to-back wins. Since Cy Young voting goes five-deep, we'll go Scherzer in fourth and Gerrit Cole fifth.
Over in the American League, things aren't much easier. Do you go with Dallas Keuchel or David Price? I'm not exactly sure how Sonny Gray finished third in the voting, but, sure, we'll go with that. We all know this is a two-horse race.
Just like Greinke, I've viewed Keuchel as the front runner all season. He was THE guy for the Astros, as Houston came out of nowhere to lead the AL West most of the season and make the playoffs. As part of his 20-8 record, he went a perfect 15-0 with a 1.46 ERA at home. Keuchel also tossed an AL-high 232 innings and struck out 216 while holding opponents to a .217 average.
Price started the year in Detroit before being traded to Toronto at the deadline. And, like another Tigers trade, Yoenis Cespedes to the Mets, Price turned the Blue Jays from just another good team into a force to be reckoned with. He was as good as advertised and better. In just two months in Toronto, Price went 9-1 with a 2.30 ERA and 87 strikeouts. With the Blue Jays, his record against the Yankees was, I think 3-1, and his dominance against them over the final two months propelled Toronto to its first division title (and playoff appearance) in 22 years. His performance North of the Border will probably earn him some votes for MVP (an award Blue Jays teammate Josh Donaldson is likely to win), too. Overall, Price ended up 18-5 with 225 strikeouts and an AL-leading 2.45 ERA.
The Keuchel-Price decision isn't any easier than the Greinke-Arrieta decision. Price being traded shouldn't matter because he stayed in the same league, so his numbers are all from the American League. But my preference is Keuchel. Price was his usual self. His dominance was expected, and even though his arrival turned the Blue Jays' season around, the Astros don't come anywhere close to where they got without the left arm of Dallas Keuchel. You can point to A.J. Hinch or Jose Altuve or Carlos Correa all you want. But Houston doesn't end up in the playoffs without their ace. And I just don't see how that doesn't go unrewarded.
My vote in the AL goes to Dallas Keuchel. David Price deserves MVP votes for what he did in Toronto, but Keuchel's body of work was just a smidge better, which is why I put Keuchel 1 and Price 2. Rounding out my ballot are Felix Hernandez, Chris Sale and, I guess, Sonny Gray.
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