Sunday, November 8, 2015

2015 Football Picks, Week 9

It's Week 9, which means we've hit the halfway point of the football season.  And there are still four! undefeated teams.  I hate to keep harping on it, but it's just so incredible that there are this many this late in the season.  It's even crazier to think that one of the three unbeaten AFC teams won't even get a bye in the playoffs.

I'm not jumping on the whole "the Patriots are gonna go 16-0 again" bandwagon, either.  No, New England hasn't lost yet, and yes, their remaining schedule is among the easiest in the game (although they have two difficult road games at the Giants and at Denver).  But does anyone realize how difficult it actually is to go undefeated?  Yes, they make winning look easy.  But they got their asses kicked on a Monday night in Kansas City last season, and they do have flaws.  Once they're exposed, the Patriots will be vulnerable.

So, I'll go out on a limb and say the '72 Dolphins are safe.  In fact, while Cincinnati will have company at 8-0, I don't think it'll come from all three of the possible teams.  At least one is going down on Sunday.

Thursday Night: Cincinnati (Win)

Dolphins (3-4) at Bills (3-4): Buffalo-After the Dolphins lost in London, they left their coach there.  The Bills at least let Rex come back to the States with them.  But that was a bad loss to Jacksonville, which makes this game a must for both teams.  The Bills won the first meeting in Miami pretty handily, but, oddly, they haven't won at home yet this season.  Although, their home opponents so far have all been first-place teams, including two of the three undefeateds (New England and Cincinnati).  They should finally get a home win this week before the short week and Rex's return to the Meadowlands.

Rams (4-3) at Vikings (5-2): Minnesota-In a matchup of the NFC's surprise playoff contenders, one of these teams will put itself in a really good position to crash the party in January.  St. Louis needs it a little more than Minnesota does.  If the Vikings win, they'll have a two-game lead on the Rams plus the tiebreaker.  The problem for the Rams, though, is that Minnesota is very good at home.  They make it three in a row and go to 6-2.

Redskins (3-4) at Patriots (7-0): New England-As I said, I'm not jumping on the whole "New England's going 16-0" train.  But I'm also not an idiot.  That first loss won't come to Washington.  Especially not at home.

Titans (1-6) at Saints (4-4): New Orleans-Tennessee is a mess.  Six straight losses since that dominant Week 1 victory.  It cost Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt his job.  The Saints, meanwhile, are headed in the opposite direction.  Three straight wins since starting 1-4, and I think Drew Brees just threw another touchdown pass against the Giants defense.  If they could put up 52 points on a good team, imagine what they might do to the Titans.

Jaguars (2-5) at Jets (4-3): Jets-There probably isn't a team in the NFL that could use some home cooking as much as the Jets.  When they last took the field at Met Life Stadium, they were 4-1 and feeling great about themselves.  Then they made trips to Foxboro and Oakland and fell to 4-3 (I actually just realized for the first time right that the Raiders are currently the No. 1 wild card team in the AFC, with the Jets second).  Both of the Jaguars' wins this season are against the AFC East.  It's not becoming three.

Raiders (4-3) at Steelers (4-4): Pittsburgh-Remember when this was the hottest rivalry in the NFL?  OK, I don't either.  But this game could have a big bearing on the AFC wild card race, especially if Denver and Cincinnati keep winning.  The Steelers are in the midst of a three-game homestand and need this game slightly more.  Pittsburgh has lost two straight and is in the same position as St. Louis.  They can't afford to fall behind and lose the tiebreaker.  The Steelers usually come to play when they need a win, and I think they will here.

Packers (6-1) at Panthers (7-0): Green Bay-Even though Green Bay lost that Sunday night showdown in Denver, I've still got them third in the power rankings behind the Patriots and Broncos.  Carolina, which won only seven games all of last year (yet still made the playoffs), can really make a statement here by winning its eighth straight to start this season.  It would also give them a two-game lead on the Packers plus the tiebreaker.  But as I said last week prior to the first of Green Bay's back-to-back road games against undefeated opponents, I thought they were going to split.  I still think that.  Packers win and go into the driver's seat for NFC home field.

Falcons (6-2) at 49ers (2-6): Atlanta-If Tennessee is the biggest mess in the NFL, San Francisco might be a close second (Detroit figures somewhere in there, too).  Colin Kaepernick has been benched.  (Kaepernick's a gimmick that no longer works, but that's a topic for another day.)  Atlanta has dropped two out of three, both in division games.  The 49ers aren't in their division.  Falcons win.

Giants (4-4) at Buccaneers (3-4): Giants-Jason Pierre-Paul and all nine of his fingers make their season debut as the Giants head to Tampa for a matchup with the Bucs that doesn't promise to be easy.  Hopefully the presence of their best pass rusher will help them recover after all those points and yards they gave up last week in New Orleans.  The Bucs' offense isn't anywhere near as prolific as the Saints', though, so I think they recover and head into their showdown with the Patriots at 5-4.

Broncos (7-0) at Colts (3-5): Denver-Will this be Peyton Manning's final visit to the city he called home for so long?  I think it probably will be.  And keep in mind, he still hasn't won in Indianapolis as a visitor.  In fact, he's just 1-2 all-time against his former team, including last year's playoff embarrassment.  The Colts looked more like their old selves than they have in week last Monday night in Charlotte, but they still lost in overtime.  And the Broncos are better than the Panthers.  Colts stay winless in games outside the division and Denver goes to 8-0, as Peyton finally gets a regular season road win in Indy.

Eagles (3-4) at Cowboys (2-5): Dallas-The good news for Dallas is that Tony Romo seems to be progressing.  The bad news is that he can't come off IR for another two weeks.  The Cowboys are at least starting to resemble an NFL team again, though.  They easily could've (maybe even should've) won last week in what turned out to be a defensive battle against Seattle.  The Eagles are playing their second straight Sunday night game (last week was their bye) and third straight primetime game overall.  Not sure why Philly is suddenly the NFL's favorite team, but this is an important one for them.  It was against the Eagles in Week 2 that Romo got hurt.  Dallas hasn't won since.  Until they beat the Eagles again on Sunday night.

Bears (2-5) at Chargers (2-6): San Diego-Sometimes we end up with a dud of a Monday night game, and that's certainly the case this week.  I don't blame the NFL for thinking the Bears and/or Chargers would be good this season.  It just didn't work out that way.  San Diego's first Monday night home game saw them lose to Pittsburgh on literally the final play.  This time, it won't come to that.  Both of these teams badly need a win.  Only the Chargers will get it.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 11-3
Season: 82-38

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