Thursday, November 26, 2015

2015 Football Picks, Week 12

It's Thanksgiving, which means it's time for the usual early helping of football picks.  This is the one week each season where I include the Thursday games in my picks.  Why?  Well, the reason is quite simple, really.  Usually, there's only one game on Thursday.  On Thanksgiving, there are three.

Although, for the second straight season, Thanksgiving is an exclusively NFC holiday.  I'm not sure what the AFC teams did to piss the NFL off, but it wasn't fair last year that all six teams in action on Thanksgiving were NFC squads, and it's not any fairer this year.  Sure, we've got Patriots-Broncos in the marquee game on Sunday night, but the Patriots played in Dallas this year, and it's the Cowboys' year for the CBS Thanksgiving game.  That couldn't be against New England why exactly?  (And with the Lions hosting the Jaguars and Titans next year, it looks like we'll run into the same situation in 2016.)

Anyway, that's a tangent for another day.  I'm thankful that we're done with bye weeks, which makes figuring out playoff scenarios a whole lot easier.  And I'm thankful that the NFL is giving us a full helping of three good Thanksgiving Day matchups, even if it is three NFC games, capped by Brett Favre's jersey retirement in Green Bay.  

Eagles (4-6) at Lions (3-7): Philadelphia-Detroit has been a different team in the two weeks since their bye.  The rematch with the Packers comes next week in the rare consecutive Thursdays schedule, but first they play the Eagles on Thanksgiving.  Philadelphia is just three days removed from getting shellacked at home by the Bucs.  But for some reason, even though I know it's probably stupid, I think they'll recover and win in Detroit.

Panthers (10-0) at Cowboys (3-7): Carolina-Have you seen the uniforms the NFL is subjecting America to in this one?  NFL, please stop trying to blind America!  Anyway, how come people are only talking about the Patriots?  The Panthers are also undefeated and, frankly, I think they're a better team than New England.  Dallas is undefeated in games started by Tony Romo.  Until now.  A lot of people thought this might be the one Carolina finally drops, but I think the Panthers make it 11 straight to start the season.

Bears (4-6) at Packers (7-3): Green Bay-The NFL moved the Packers' traditional Thanksgiving date in Detroit back a week so that they can have the primetime showcase for Favre's retirement ceremony.  And do you really think they're gonna lose, to their archrivals, on the day Brett Favre makes his return to Lambeau?

Vikings (7-3) at Falcons (6-4): Atlanta-This is an important matchup between the NFC's wild card leaders.  The winner moves into the driver's seat for the No. 5 seed, which means a game against the NFC East champion instead of at Green Bay or Arizona.  Of course, Minnesota still has its sights set on a division title, while the Falcons need this one if they have any hope of keeping pace with the Panthers.  Atlanta's also reeling, so they need this one to just stay in playoff position.  They flip-flop places after the Falcons win.

Rams (4-6) at Bengals (8-2): Cincinnati-Back to regular old Sunday afternoon for the Bengals, which is a good thing.  Because after an 8-0 start, they've dropped two straight in primetime.  Of course, St. Louis isn't the caliber of division-leading Houston or Arizona, either.  Which is why I think the Bengals get back on track.

Raiders (4-6) at Titans (2-8): Oakland-Here we go again.  The Raiders are favored in an early game.  This time it's in Nashville against a Titans team that we've come to find out is actually pretty bad.  It all looked so encouraging after that season-opening win.  Little did we know, that would be the high point in another lost season.  So, yeah, it should be pretty obvious I'm going with the Raiders here.

Buccaneers (5-5) at Colts (5-5): Indianapolis-Speaking of the Bucs-Titans season opener, who would've figured it would be Tampa Bay that would end up flirting with playoff position with six games to go?  But that's exactly how they enter the Dungy Bowl.  The Colts, meanwhile, have finally picked up some wins against teams that aren't in their own division.  They get their third this week and finally move above .500 for the season.

Bills (5-5) at Chiefs (5-5): Kansas City-What happened to the final two seconds of the Bills game on Monday night?  Yep, still a little peeved about that.  And it resulted in Buffalo dropping into a four-way tie for the second AFC wild card.  Two of the teams they're tied with are Kansas City and Houston, who just happen to be their next two opponents.  We'll see what Rex's team is made of and whether or not they can end the NFL's longest active playoff drought.  Unfortunately for them, Kansas City might just be the hottest team in football not based in Foxboro or Charlotte.

Dolphins (4-6) at Jets (5-5): Jets-Since beating the Dolphins in London to go to 3-1, the Jets are just 2-4.  Miami, meanwhile, is 3-3 since then.  If the Dolphins win, they actually have a chance of being relevant in the playoff conversation over the season's final month.  This is a game the Jets need to win badly.  And they know it.  Otherwise, they become a last-place team.

Giants (5-5) at Redskins (4-6): Giants-I hate in when the NFL schedules the Giants and Jets at the same time, then doesn't move one of the games.  It really doesn't matter that much to me, though, since I'm working during the early games on Sunday.  The Redskins are the only team in the NFC East the Giants seem capable of beating at the moment.  If they want to maintain their division lead, they'd better do it again.

Chargers (2-8) at Jaguars (4-6): Jacksonville-Remember all that stuff I said about Tennessee and Tampa Bay?  Same goes for San Diego and Jacksonville.  Who ever would've thought the Jaguars, the JAGUARS!, would be on a two-game winning streak and the winners of three of their last four?  Or that San Diego would be 2-8 after 10 games?  This is normally the time of the year when you start wondering how high the Jaguars will pick.  Not if they can actually stay within one game of the division lead.

Saints (4-6) at Texans (5-5): Houston-New Orleans did the inevitable during its bye week and fired Rob Ryan.  It had to be done.  That defense was becoming so easy to score on they might as well have been an FCS team in the second half of Ohio State's homecoming game.  Things don't get any easier against a Texans team that's 4-1 since starting 1-4, including big wins over Cincinnati and the Jets in their last two games.  With Buffalo, New England, Indy coming up, Houston really can't afford a slip up in this one.

Cardinals (8-2) at 49ers (3-7): Arizona-In news that shocks absolutely nobody, Arizona's really good.  Of course, the Cardinals were 9-1 last year at this point and they proceeded to lose four of their last six, then a playoff game at Carolina, but this season seems different.  At the very least, they should pick up a victory in San Francisco against a bad 49ers team with a backup quarterback no problem.

Steelers (6-4) at Seahawks (5-5): Seattle-Seattle's in very unfamiliar territory.  They haven't been below .500 this late in the season in a while.  But that's exactly the position they'll find themselves in if they fall to the Steelers, who lead the AFC wild card race and are still within striking distance of the Bengals in the North.  Tough call here.   The Seahawks aren't anywhere near as unbeatable at home as they used to be.  But Seattle's still a tough place to play, and the Steelers don't travel to the Pacific Northwest very often.  In the Super Bowl's 50th anniversary season, this one of the Super Bowl rematches.  They met 10 years ago in the last NFL game broadcast by ABC before NBC got Sunday Night Football and the Monday night game moved to ESPN the next season.

Patriots (10-0) at Broncos (8-2): Denver-Instead of Manning-Brady XVII, we get Brady-Osweiler I on Sunday night in Denver.  When are the Patriots finally going to lose?  The Giants and Bills had the perfect game plans in each of the last two weeks, but New England keeps finding a way.  Eventually, someone's gonna have the perfect game plan AND execute it.  If Manning was playing, Brady would certainly have the edge.  But Brock Osweiler is the X-factor.  No element of surprise seeing as he played last week, but it'll definitely be a different look for the Patriots to deal with.  Call me crazy, but I've got a hunch Denver pulls it out.  If they don't, you might as well start making your plans for another AFC Championship Game in Foxboro.

Ravens (3-7) at Browns (2-8): Baltimore-Since Thursday's Thanksgiving, the NFL is sparing us a crappy Thursday night game.  So we get a crappy Monday night game instead.  At least they found some way to make it interesting by having Cleveland be forced into naming Johnny Overrated the starter by the owner before Johnny Immature showed up during the bye week and turned himself into Johnny Benched.  The Ravens leave home for the first time in a month by visiting their former home (does that still count as their "former" home now that they've been in Baltimore for 20 years?).  They won in Pittsburgh on a Thursday night.  Now they'll get a win in Cleveland on a Monday night to go with it.

Bonus Game: GREY CUP-Ottawa RedBlacks vs. Edmonton Eskimos: Edmonton-You want a remarkable story, how about the Ottawa RedBlacks?  The CFL was absent from the capital for 10 years before the RedBlacks finally brought Ottawa back to the league last season.  Now, in just their second year, they're playing for the Grey Cup against Edmonton, the most successful team in CFL history.  Great story, but the RedBlacks' run won't end with a championship.  The Western Division was stronger all year, and Edmonton's the better team.

Last Week: 9-5
Season: 100-60

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