Thursday, October 8, 2015

Division Series Prognostications

I bet the Pittsburgh Pirates are getting pretty tired of the NL Wild Card Game.  It's been in existence for four years.  They've hosted it three times (they're actually the only team even to play in more than one Wild Card Game).  The last three years in a row.  And after winning the first time, they got shut out by Madison Bumgarner and then Jake Arrieta.  I'm sure the thrill of being in the playoffs and hosting the Wild Card Game has worn off.  They'll probably want to make sure they finish ahead of the Cardinals and actually see the Division Series next year.

The Pirates and Yankees also continued a pretty remarkable trend.  This was the second time in the four-year existence of the Wild Card Game that both road teams won.  Home teams are just 2-6 all-time in the Wild Card Game.  I'll admit to being lukewarm on the Wild Card Game when it was introduced, but those numbers indicate that it was actually a pretty good idea, even if that is somewhat skewed because of pitching performances like the ones we saw from Keuchel and Arrieta this year and Bumgarner last year.

Although, none of us should be surprised the Cubs won.  Back to the Future: Part II predicted that they'd win the World Series this year, so why are we even bothering?  And it's not a stretch to think they'll be there.  In fact, I think all four National League playoff teams are capable of winning the pennant.  For the first time in a while, I'm actually more excited about the National League playoffs.  Those are going to be two phenomenal series, including one between rivals that have never met in the postseason before.

In the American League, Toronto's the team to beat.  The Blue Jays are just too good.  Yes, they can mash you to death, but their pitching is incredibly underrated.  David Price could easily be this year's Madison Bumgarner.  Is it possible Toronto won't be in the World Series?  Of course.  I just don't see it happening.

Blue Jays vs. Rangers: Since I've already gotten going about Toronto, it would make sense to keep on that point.  I have all kinds of questions about why they decided to start Buehrle on Sunday instead of going for homefield, but that's a topic for another day.  And it may become moot if Houston beats Kansas City.  As for this Blue Jays-Rangers series, it'll be high-scoring.  Both of these teams like to hit home runs.  But Toronto's underrated pitching staff will be the X factor.  The Rangers had to start Cole Hamels on Sunday since they hadn't clinched the division yet.  That means they can't send their ace up against Price in Game 1, which will be the first Division Series contest ever held in Canada (the Blue Jays are the only team to have never played in the Division Series).  Instead, he'll go against Marcus Stroman in Game 2.  These are two of the hottest teams in baseball over the last two months, but one of them is obviously gonna be done.  I just have a feeling it's going to be Texas.  They both can hit, but the Blue Jays' pitching is much better, both the starters and the relievers.  Toronto in three.

Royals vs. Astros: Even though it means Dallas Keuchel and a healthy dose of the Astros' bats, Kansas City is probably happy Houston beat the Yankees.  This is the better matchup for them.  The Royals weren't good down the stretch and it almost cost them, but they recovered nicely over the final week to wrap up homefield throughout the playoffs.  Houston, meanwhile, makes its ALDS debut after putting the Yankees out of their misery.  That win should give the Astros a lot of confidence, but don't forget, the Royals were in the World Series last season.  While I have some questions about Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez (especially after Cueto's last couple starts), I still believe in the Kansas City magic.  The feisty Astros will give them all kinds of problems, and Keuchel pitching Game 3 at home, where he's undefeated this year, virtually assures Houston of at least one win, but since he's only pitching once, they'll be hard-pressed to find two more against a really good Kansas City team.  Kansas City in four.

Now over to the National League, where we've got some fun in store.  You've got the three biggest cities and the three (maybe four) biggest fan bases in the NL.  There are also a couple streaks on the line.  We all know about the Cubs, but it's been 27 years since the Dodgers won the World Series and the Cardinals are looking to make their fifth consecutive NLCS appearance.  It is St. Louis' turn to win the pennant, after all.

Cardinals vs. Cubs: Without a doubt, the NL Central was the best division in baseball this season.  It's not even that much of a stretch to say the Cardinals, Pirates and Cubs were the three best teams in the regular season.  Now you have the teams with the best and third-best records in baseball meeting in the Division Series, which is one of the unfortunate things that can happen under this playoff system.  And, in case we needed any more excitement for postseason games at Wrigley, it's the first-ever playoff series between these longtime rivals.  Prior to the Wild Card Game, I said the Cubs had a better shot against the Cardinals than the Pirates did mainly because of their pitching depth.  Arrieta can't go until Game 3, but they've got Jon Lester lined up to pitch twice and will also throw Dan Haren and Jason Hammel out there.  The Cardinals obviously won 100 games for a reason and are in the playoffs every year, so their guys know how to win, but you have to wonder at what point the injuries will finally catch up to St. Louis.  It might be here.  The Cubs are the hottest team in baseball with the hottest pitcher and the genius manager.  And the brilliant president who won two World Series in Boston.  100 wins or not, I don't see how St. Louis stops this Cubs buzz saw.  Cubs in five.

Dodgers vs. Mets: We knew for about a month before it was official that the Dodgers would play the Mets, so we've had plenty of time to dissect this series.  And it's still really tough to separate them.  They're both, obviously, built on ridiculous starting pitching.  The Dodgers have two of the three best pitchers in the game, although Clayton Kershaw's playoff record is less than stellar.  They aren't playing the Cardinals this time, though.  And if Kershaw struggles in Game 1, they've still got Greinke to back him up in Game 2.  If he wants to, Don Mattingly can have his two aces throw four of the five games.  That's why the Mets were so smart to slate Matt Harvey for Game 3, the only one guaranteed to be pitched by somebody else.  You know Citi Field will be rocking with Harvey on the mound for the Mets' first-ever home playoff game at the stadium.  With two pitchers' parks and two dominant rotations, these games are likely to be low-scoring.  The little things are going to make the difference.  The Mets did those little things for most of the past two months.  But it's the Dodgers that have the playoff experience, and it's the Dodgers that know they can't keep losing the Division Series.  I'll give the Mets Game 3 with Harvey, but I don't see how they win two of the four games Greinshaw pitches.  Dodgers in four.

So there you have it, my LCS matchups are Royals-Blue Jays and Dodgers-Cubs.  I've been saying since September started that it was going to be Blue Jays-Dodgers in the World Series, and, as tempted as I am to take the Cubs in the National League, I'm gonna stick with it.  The National League is definitely more up for grabs, but I don't see who in the American League stops Toronto.  I don't know who in the National League stops the Blue Jays either.

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