Sunday, October 4, 2015

2015 Football Picks, Week 4

We've hit October, which means we start getting into the fun of bye weeks.  Because there's nothing more the Patriots need after their homecoming game than a week off.  And what's with this only two teams on bye thing?  Four teams a week for eight weeks.  What's so hard about that?

And this week, don't forget, has the special 9:30 a.m. London start time.  That means at least four games for everybody on Sunday.  Football from morning to night.

Thursday Night: Baltimore (Win)

Jets (2-1) vs. Dolphins (1-2): Miami-It's interesting how they added a third London game this year--then stuck one right smack of the Rugby World Cup, which England is currently hosting.  There was an Ireland-Romania Rugby World Cup game at Wembley last Sunday, although that's the only game of the tournament scheduled for the stadium.  As for the American football game, London gets a division matchup for the first time, with the Jets taking on the Dolphins.  Miami has looked awful in its last two games and, despite being the "home" team in this one, only plays one actual home game in the next seven weeks.  Maybe a trip across the pond will fix what ails them.  Otherwise, they might as well not come home.  Because it could be a long year in Miami.

Texans (1-2) at Falcons (3-0): Atlanta-Now we get to see if Atlanta can beat a team from a division other than the NFC East, as they take on the AFC South-"leading" Texans (everybody in the AFC South is 1-2).  After back-to-back road games, the Falcons return home for the first time since their opener.  And like that Monday night game in Week 1, I think they win a close one.

Giants (1-2) at Bills (2-1): Buffalo-This week's Super Bowl rematch is one of the toughest games to call.  The Giants finally looked like the Giants last week, and the NFC East is definitely still winnable for them.  The Bills, meanwhile, rebounded from the Patriots game by going to Miami and absolutely thumping the Dolphins.  The Giants play the Jets in the preseason every year, so they're no strangers to a Rex Ryan defense.  But they haven't faced this Rex Ryan defense.  And they'll be doing it without Victor Cruz.  That's the main reason why I'm picking Buffalo.

Raiders (2-1) at Bears (0-3): Oakland-What's going on here?  Has Hell frozen over?  I'm picking Oakland?  On the road!  Jack Del Rio has certainly changed the culture on the East Bay.  The Raiders once again resemble an NFL football team.  The Bears, on the other hand.  They've got all sorts of problems.  Last week in Seattle: 10 possessions, 10 punts, 0 points.  That's tough to do.  Del Rio and John Fox were together in Denver last year.  This year, the Broncos' old defensive coordinator gets the better of Denver's former head coach.

Chiefs (1-2) at Bengals (3-0): Cincinnati-When are people finally going to acknowledge the fact that Cincinnati is one of the best teams in the NFL?  The Bengals could go two up in the ultra-competitive AFC North if they beat a good Chiefs team.  I expect Kansas City to fall to 1-3 here, but that's an indication more of the quality of their opponents (Denver, at Green Bay, at Cincinnati) than the Chiefs themselves.

Jaguars (1-2) at Colts (1-2): Indianapolis-As it turns out, all the Colts needed was to play a division game.  Indianapolis has won 13 consecutive division games, the third-longest streak in NFL history.  They can tie the 1993-94 Cowboys with their 14th straight on Sunday.  And after beating Jacksonville, Indy will be in sole possession of first place.

Panthers (3-0) at Buccaneers (1-2): Carolina-Carolina is one of the seven remaining undefeated teams in the NFL, and they don't play Atlanta until December.  But in order to keep pace with the Falcons, they need to get a win in Tampa.  They've got their bye next week, then go to Seattle, so, yeah, this is an important game for the Panthers to get.

Eagles (1-2) at Redskins (1-2): Washington-Here we find out which one of these rivals will still be in the NFC East mix.  They actually both played in New York last week, with the Redskins losing to the Giants on Thursday before the Eagles finally got their first win of the year over the Jets.  For some reason, I think the Redskins are gonna win this game.  Don't ask me why.

Browns (1-2) at Chargers (1-2): San Diego-After starting the season with Jets, Titans, Raiders, the Browns actually play a real NFL opponent this week.  San Diego has an identical 1-2 record, but hasn't been home since Week 1.  The Chargers had to play early games at Cincinnati and Minnesota over the last two weeks, and San Diego traditionally struggles in 1:00 games.  Back in the familiar surroundings of Southern California, the Chargers get back on track.  And they need to.  Their next two games are against Pittsburgh and Green Bay.

Vikings (2-1) at Broncos (3-0): Denver-Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson have combined to win four of the last seven MVP awards or something like that.  Denver hasn't been good all season, yet is 3-0, and Peyton began to find his groove at the end of that Sunday night game in Detroit last week.  The Vikings, meanwhile, are 2-1, but both of their wins were at home.  The only time Minnesota traveled this season, they got blown out in San Francisco on the opening Monday night.  Another trip out west should bring a similar result.

Rams (1-2) at Cardinals (3-0): Arizona-I think we can all agree that the Arizona Cardinals have one of the best offenses in the NFL, if not THE best.  31, 48 and 47 points in their first three games.  Will they have the same type of output against a very good Rams defense?  Probably not.  But they should still score enough to win and move to 4-0 for the second straight year.

Packers (3-0) at 49ers (1-2): Green Bay-Is it just me, or does it seem like Green Bay plays in San Francisco every year?  Thanks to Aaron Rodgers I went from leading comfortably to losing big in my fantasy game last week.  He might be the best player in football, and the Packers are definitely one of the two or three best teams in football.  San Francisco is not.  After winning on opening night, the 49ers went on the road and got rocked by both the Steelers and Cardinals.  At home, it'll be better, but they aren't beating Green Bay.  Fun fact, this is Green Bay's fourth game of the year, and they've already played in four of the five regular timeslots.  Only Thursday night is missing

Cowboys (2-1) at Saints (0-3): New Orleans-When NBC selected this game for Sunday night, I'm fairly certain they were expecting Romo vs. Brees.  Well, it looks like half of that combination will play after Brees didn't play last week.  And New Orleans will certainly love having him back.  Because the Saints are a different team without him.  Branden Weeden almost did enough to answer my questions about the Romo-less Cowboys, but then they went and blew that lead against the Falcons.  With Brees back and New Orleans desperate for a win to stay in contention in the suddenly strong NFC South, I'm making the call.  Dallas' regular season road winning streak comes to an end.

Lions (0-3) at Seahawks (1-2): Seattle-On Monday night, we've got a team that's desperate for a win, but will be very hard-pressed to get one.  That's how important last Sunday night's game was for the Lions.  They knew they were heading to Seattle, one of the hardest places for a visitor to win in the entire NFL.  Kam Chancellor certainly deserves some of the credit, but the Seahawks were a completely different team last week than in Weeks 1 & 2.  Sure, Detroit is better than the Bears, but not by much.  The Seahawks even their record heading into next week's big showdown in Cincinnati.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 12-4
Season: 32-17

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