Sunday, October 11, 2015

2015 Football Picks, Week 5

The NFL season has reached the quarter pole, and we still don't know that much.  There are still six! undefeated teams, and I have no idea which of the three in the AFC is actually the best.  New England has been dominant, but look at who they've played.  Denver hasn't looked good at all, but is still 4-0.  And Cincinnati is the most unheralded undefeated team maybe ever.

Over in the NFC, no one is surprised that the Packers are unbeaten.  But two teams in the NFC South?  Who saw that one coming?  And the Falcons don't play the Panthers until December, so this could go on for a while.  Cincinnati and New England are probably the most vulnerable of the six this week, while we know Carolina definitely isn't going to lose.  The Panthers have their bye this week, along with Minnesota, Miami and the Jets.

Thursday Night: Indianapolis (Win)

Redskins (2-2) at Falcons (4-0): Atlanta-So, it turns out, Atlanta can beat teams outside of the NFC East.  Now, after that one-week detour, the Falcons go for a clean sweep of the division.  It's a good thing for the NFC East teams that none of them have to face Atlanta again for the rest of the season.  Because the Falcons will head to New Orleans for Thursday Night Football with a 5-0 record.

Seahawks (2-2) at Bengals (4-0): Seattle-It's a toss up between this and Patriots-Cowboys for the game of the week.  Seattle has rebounded from that 0-2 start, but both of those wins came at home and the two losses to start the season were on the road.  Those were without Kam Chancellor, though.  For the Bengals to be considered an elite team, this is the type of game that they have to win.  It would definitely be a signature victory in the same way the Cowboys got one by beating the Seahawks in Seattle last year.  I don't think they're gonna get it, though.

Rams (2-2) at Packers (4-0): Green Bay-I officially don't get the St. Louis Rams.  At all.  They beat the Seahawks in Week 1, then turned in a pair of clunkers in losses to Washington and Pittsburgh, only to go into Arizona and knock off the undefeated Cardinals.  Which Rams team will we get this week in Lambeau?  Will it matter?  Probably not.  The Packers are the best team St. Louis has faced.  Sidebar: why is this game on CBS?

Bills (2-2) at Titans (1-2): Buffalo-We don't have a Super Bowl rematch this week, but we do have a rematch of "Home Run Throwback," which is still the most-recent playoff game in Bills history.  Yeah, that game took place in 1999, by the way.  As for the 2015 edition of the Bills, they've looked dominant twice in wins over the Colts and Dolphins and downright mediocre in losses to the Patriots and Giants.  They've alternated their wins and losses, and Tennessee is definitely more similar to Indianapolis and Miami than the Patriots and Giants.  Buffalo should move to 3-2.

Bears (1-3) at Chiefs (1-3): Kansas City-Kansas City might be the best 1-3 team in football.  Consider who the Chiefs have played over the last three weeks: Denver, Green Bay, Cincinnati.  After running that gauntlet, they deserve a break.  It comes in the form of the Bears.  Kansas City snaps its three-game losing streak.

Saints (1-3) at Eagles (1-3): Philadelphia-For two teams that had a lot of expectations coming into this season, this amounts to a virtual must-win game.  Yes, I know it's Week 5, but the Saints especially are already in danger of falling out of the playoff race.  Philly, meanwhile, can still salvage something in the not-that-great NFC East.  It sounds crazy, but I think the Eagles need this game more.  That win over the Cowboys was huge for New Orleans.  Especially because I see the Eagles winning here.

Jaguars (1-3) at Buccaneers (1-3): Tampa Bay-At this time last week, the Jaguars were technically in first place in the AFC South.  Then they go to Indianapolis and almost win before the Colts kicked a field goal in overtime.  Maybe Jacksonville's better than I think.  Tampa Bay sees this as a great opportunity to get a win, though.  The Bucs will be ready, and they'll get Jamies Winston his first home win.

Browns (1-3) at Ravens (1-3): Baltimore-New Orleans ended last week with a much-needed win.  Baltimore started last week with one.  Sure, the Steelers gave them the game, but they'll take it.  A win's a win.  Other than the opener against the Jets, Cleveland has been competitive in every game this year.  That's little consolation when you're 1-3.  I think that script continues this week.  But, again, who cares how competitive you are when you're 1-4?

Cardinals (3-1) at Lions (0-4): Arizona-What happened to that vaunted Arizona offense last week?  You want to know why the Cardinals are no longer undefeated?  Start there.  As for the Lions, controversial ending aside (hey NFL, how about no more Monday night games in Seattle?), they nearly pulled off the upset against the Seahawks.  They won't stay winless for long, but it'll probably last at least another week.

Patriots (3-0) at Cowboys (2-2): New England-Exciting day in Arlington.  Cowboys-Patriots at 4:30, followed almost immediately by Game 3 of Rangers-Blue Jays.  Remember back when the schedule came out and this was one of the most anticipated games of the early season?  Then Brady got suspended and Cowboys-Patriots was supposed to be the last game he'd miss.  Then he was reinstated and it was Brady vs. Romo again.  Then Romo broke his collarbone.  The storylines surrounding this game have sure changed along the way, haven't they?  And I'll add another.  Why isn't this game on Thanksgiving?  It's the Cowboys' year to be on CBS.  This would've seemed like the natural selection.  Anyway, with the current status of each team and its quarterback situation, I think it's pretty obvious who's going to win.  And if New England does get through this one, they could easily make it to 10-0 when they play Denver on Thanksgiving weekend (which is when they should be in Dallas).

Broncos (4-0) at Raiders (2-2): Denver-When will the real Denver Broncos show up?  That's what everyone keeps wondering.  Well, maybe these are the real Denver Broncos.  And whatever they've been doing has been working.  So much attention is being focused on Peyton Manning, that the Broncos' awesome defense has been totally overlooked.  That's why they're 4-0.  Now that defense is reunited with old coordinator Jack Del Rio, who's now the head coach of the division rival Raiders.  Oakland's much improved under Del Rio.  Maybe enough to pull the upset.  Which still doesn't seem that likely.

49ers (1-3) at Giants (2-2): Giants-Well, these teams are headed in opposite directions, aren't they?  The Giants have won two straight and had maybe their best overall game of the season last week in Buffalo.  The 49ers, meanwhile, have lost three straight and have scored a grand total of 10 points in their last two games.  I just don't know where this team is going to get any offense from.  Last time they were on NBC, America was seeing the Giants blow a 10-point fourth quarter lead in Dallas.  Won't happen this time.  The Giants will know going into the game how everyone else in the division did, and they could end it in sole possession of first place at the end of it.

Steelers (2-2) at Chargers (2-2): Pittsburgh-Some poorly-timed missed kicks cost the Steelers' kicker his job, and a poor decision by Mike Tomlin in overtime ultimately cost Pittsburgh the game last Thursday night in Baltimore.  Now, 11 days later, they finally return to action in San Diego.  I absolutely hate that Thursday night-Monday night thing the NFL has already done twice this season.  The Steelers aren't complaining, though.  Pittsburgh is 0-2 in Thursday night games this year, so they're glad they don't have anymore.  On the reverse side, the Steelers are 2-0 in non-Thursday night games.  Make that 3-0.  Even though the Chargers are at home and Roethlisberger's out, I'm still going Pittsburgh.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 11-4
Season: 43-21

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