Today I continue the baseball preview by staying in the East, but switching from the guys who use the DH to the guys that don't. Other than the locations of the cities they play in, there isn't much that's similar between the AL East and the NL East. The AL East consists of a bunch of good teams that are all relatively close to each other talent-wise, with varying projections thinking any of the five could win the division or finish last.
In the NL East, there's no such confusion. While they haven't officially clinched the division yet, everyone agrees the Nationals aren't just the best team in the NL East. They might be the best team in baseball. The Mets and Marlins both got better and will fight for second place. They're both capable of finishing at or near .500 and even making an outside run at the wild card. The Braves and Phillies, meanwhile, are in rebuilding mode. The NL East's pecking order is so clear cut that if Washington doesn't win the division, the manager of whichever team does will probably be Manager of the Year.
1. Washington Nationals: So how good are the Nationals? Well, let's put it this way. Jordan Zimmermann made the All-Star team last season and is their No. 3 starter. Tanner Roark won 15 games last season and is their No. 6 starter. Meaning he'll start the season in the bullpen. Washington reeled in the biggest free agent fish in Max Scherzer to add a piece to a team that was already loaded. And with that, they might've become favorites to play the first World Series games in D.C. in more than 80 years. This Nationals team is better than the one that had the best record in the National League last season. That starting pitching depth can't be matched, the bullpen has long been one of their strengths, and the lineup has few, if any, flaws. My only real concern with Washington is injuries. Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman have been injury-prone over the past couple seasons, and the bench isn't anywhere near as good as the starters. They did address that somewhat, though, by adding Yunel Escobar and Nate McLouth. However, they also let Adam LaRoche leave with the plan of moving Zimmerman over to first. How well will he handle the new position? And will not having LaRoche's bat in the middle of the lineup (not to mention his superb defense at first base) have more of a negative effect than they thought? But I'm reaching to find negatives about the Nationals. They're going to win the division. They're going to win 90 games. And they might even flirt with the magic number. The 100-win team is a dying breed. There hasn't been one since the 2011 Phillies, and a 100-win team hasn't won the World Series since the 2009 Yankees. That could change this season. Because the Nationals won 96 games in 2014 and are better this year. There will be October baseball in Washington for the third time in four seasons.
Projected Lineup: Denard Span-CF, Anthony Rendon-3B, Bryce Harper-RF, Jayson Werth-LF, Ryan Zimmerman-1B, Ian Desmond-SS, Yunel Escobar-2B, Wilson Ramos-C
Projected Rotation: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, Doug Fister
Closer: Drew Storen
Projected Record: 96-66
2. Miami Marlins: It's really a toss-up between the Marlins and Mets for second place. But I give the slight edge to Miami because I think they have a slightly better lineup. And that lineup was fortified by making sure Giancarlo Stanton was going to stick around for the foreseeable future. For a team that is notorious for stripping itself to the core and selling off the pieces, locking up Stanton and Christian Yelich was important to show the fans they actually are serious about trying to build a winner. I like their chances of doing it. They smartly brought in some low-risk, low-cost veterans who can help them now while still maintaining their young core. Prime example: Michael Morse. He had no more value to the Giants, but the Marlins needed a first baseman and a power bat to put behind Stanton, so Morse made perfect sense. They've also got an alarming number of ex-Yankees. But that's the type of move the Marlins make. Trading Nathan Eovaldi, one of their good young starters, and getting three players in return, one of whom is Martin Prado, who can play about six positions. Of course, their biggest pitching weapon is Jose Fernandez, who's coming off Tommy John surgery and probably won't be available until like June. Can Miami weather two months without its ace? They survived most of last season, so I think they're in OK shape without him. Ultimately, this team will go as far as Giancarlo Stanton takes them. This isn't the '97 Marlins, and it's not the '03 Marlins either. But it's also not the 2012 Marlins. Expectations are somewhat high, but they're also not unreasonable. The Marlins absolutely can finish with 80-something wins and maybe challenge for a wild card. They're not expecting to challenge Washington, but competing for a playoff berth and finishing second is definitely doable.
Projected Lineup: Dee Gordon-2B, Martin Prado-3B, Giancarlo Stanton-RF, Michael Morse-1B, Christian Yelich-LF, Jarrod Saltalamacchia-C, Marcell Ozuna-CF, Aideny Hechevarria-SS
Projected Rotation: Jose Fernandez*, Henderson Alvarez, Mat Latos, Jarred Cosart, Dan Haren, David Phelps
Closer: Steve Cishek
Projected Record: 82-80
3. New York Mets: For the first time in a while, the Mets aren't just saying they're going to be better than the Yankees. They actually believe it. And it's because of their pitching staff. They were getting Matt Harvey back after he missed all of last year with Tommy John surgery. Harvey, Rookie of the Year Jacob de Grom, Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard were going to form the next dominant rotation in the Majors. Well, Syndergaard will start the year in the Minors so that he doesn't accumulate service time, and Wheeler decided he didn't want to feel left out, so he had his own Tommy John surgery last week. (It's a good thing they didn't trade Dillon Gee, like they were thinking about.) Even still, the Mets' rotation is going to be very formidable. The bullpen will be without one of its big arms because Josh Edgin is also having Tommy John, while closer Bobby Parnell will be back from his in like mid-May. The lineup is always the concern with the Mets, though. What's the point of having such good pitching if you can't score any runs? Well, they realize that's a problem, and they've done what they could to address it. The fences at Citi Field have been brought in yet again in an attempt to inject some power back into this team. That's also why they overspent for Michael Cuddyer in free agency. He signed with the Mets within hours of becoming a free agent. It's probably a bit of a reach, but it's a move they had to make. They badly needed a power hitter. I'm also curious to see what they're gonna get out of Lucas Duda now that the soap opera involving him and Ike Davis is over. Travis d'Arnaud also needs to start hitting if he's going to prove to be the "prize" everybody thought he was in the R.A. Dickey trade. The Mets' rotation will keep them competitive. Whether not they'll be contenders depends on the bats.
Projected Lineup: Juan Lagares-CF, Daniel Murphy-2B, David Wright-3B, Michael Cuddyer-LF, Curtis Granderson-RF, Lucas Duda-1B, Travis d'Arnaud-C, Wilmer Flores-SS
Projected Rotation: Bartolo Colon, Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Jonathan Niese, Dillon Gee
Closer: Jenry Mejia
Projected Record: 80-82
4. Atlanta Braves: I'm not really sure what to make of the Atlanta Braves. They're not completely in rebuilding mode, but it definitely looks like they care more about being good when they open their new ballpark in two years than they do about being good in 2015. But they aren't totally mailing this season in, either, which is what confuses me. For example, they traded Jason Heyward to St. Louis, then signed Nick Markakis, a very similar, if not slightly better player, to replace him. By getting rid of the Georgia born-and-bred homegrown talent, they've made the statement that this is Freddie Freeman's team now. They also cancelled the Upton Bros. Show by trading Justin to San Diego with the hopes that the rebranded "Melvin Jr." will be the guy they though they were getting when they signed "B.J." instead of the guy who's been taking their money for the last couple years. It's their pitching staff, though, that's not good. Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz are all in the Hall of Fame. Now the "ace" is Julio Teheran. No offense to Julio Teheran, but he's not Maddux, Glavine or Smoltz. Craig Kimbrel's one of the best closers in the game, but they're not going to get a lot of length out of the rotations. I simply don't see the Braves having enough pieces to win that many games this year. Especially in an NL East that features three teams that are better than them.
Projected Lineup: Eric Young Jr.-LF, Andrelton Simmons-SS, Freddie Freeman-1B, Nick Markakis-RF, Chris Johnson-3B, Melvin Upton Jr.-CF, A.J. Pierzynski-C, Alberto Callaspo-2B
Projected Rotation: Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, Shelby Miller, Mike Minor, Wandy Rodriguez
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Projected Record: 76-86
5. Philadelphia Phillies: Give the Phillies credit. They finally realized it was time to hit the "reset" button. The Glory Days are over, and the guys from that era all got old quick. They're still crippled by Ryan Howard's contract and nobody else wants Chase Utley, so Jimmy Rollins, the only one of the three that still has anything left, was the one who had to go. He's now in LA, so I'd say Rollins got the best of that deal. Because it's not going to be pretty this season in Philly. If the Nationals have a chance of winning 100 games this season, the Phillies might have a chance at challenging 100 losses. I wouldn't be surprised to see Cole Hamels get traded at the deadline. Because he's going to have a lot of value to teams needing a starter (Seattle?). There's some talent in Philadelphia, but they need to completely usher out those core guys from their World Series teams before the rebuilding process can be complete. Which won't be for a couple years since they're still stuck with Ryan Howard. As for 2015, they're probably going to be in a fight with the Twins, Diamondbacks and Rockies for the No. 1 draft pick.
Projected Lineup: Ben Revere-CF, Domonic Brown-RF, Chase Utley-2B, Ryan Howard-1B, Darin Ruf-LF, Cody Asche-3B, Freddy Galvis-SS, Carlos Ruiz-C
Projected Rotation: Cole Hamels, Aaron Harang, Jerome Williams, David Buchanan, Kevin Slowey
Closer: Jonathan Papelbon
Projected Record: 64-98
So there you have it. The Nationals aren't just clearly the class of the division. They're one of the few elite teams in the game entering the season. Through no fault of the remaining four teams, Washington should dominate this division the way the Tigers have dominated the AL Central in recent seasons. Except Detroit has only made the World Series once and didn't win it. That's the challenge for the Nationals. It's up to the rest of the NL East to make Washington as good a team as it can be in October.
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