Can anybody beat UConn? That's the annual question heading into the NCAA Women's Tournament. And this year, like most others, I think the answer is "No." Since their overtime loss at Stanford in the second game of the season, the Huskies have completely bludgeoned their opponents. That includes Notre Dame on the road and then-No. 1 South Carolina. UConn has the best players and the most complete team. That's why they're the No. 1 overall seed and the clear favorites for a third straight national title.
That doesn't mean UConn's invincible, though. Remember a couple years ago when Baylor went into the tournament undefeated and got shocked by Louisville in the Sweet 16 in what ended up being Brittany Griner's final collegiate game? UConn won the title that season and has been the dominant team in women's basketball ever since. Everybody had Baylor in their bracket that season, just like virtually everyone has UConn this year. But Baylor didn't win. And UConn hasn't yet. They're still six wins away from another title.
So who'll be joining the Huskies in Tampa? Well, I have to admit, this is a very top-heavy bracket. Especially since this year the NCAA went back to the old format of having the top 16 overall seeds host the first two rounds. That was the right move on a number of levels, but one of the likely results will be fewer early upsets. I'm not sure there would've been many upsets anyway, though. Because there's quite a separation between the No. 1 and 2 seeds and everybody else.
Since the NCAA's identification of the regions by city instead of actual region is stupid, I'm choosing to identify the regionals the same way they do in the men's tournament. That means Albany is the "East," Oklahoma City is the "Midwest," Greensboro is the "South" and Spokane is the "West."
Kentucky has to be wondering what it did to the NCAA. Because once again the Wildcats are the No. 2 seed opposite UConn in the East. Why do they have them play each other every year? It's like the year Texas A&M won the championship and played Baylor in the regional final when the two of them were still in the same conference and had already played three times. I say give Kentucky a break and give us a little variety.
The Wildcats have been good enough to go to the Final Four for the last couple years now, but the fact that they always have to go through UConn is a hurdle that they can't seem to clear. And this year won't be any different. Once again, UConn beats Kentucky in the East regional final. As for the other two teams going to Albany, I see Texas getting the road win over Cal in the second round, while South Florida will take advantage of playing at home and beat Louisville. The Cardinals are hosting the men's tournament, which means they can't host the women's, despite the fact that they're a top 16 seed. They're the only top 16 seed that isn't playing at home, and it'll be tough for them to win that second-round road game against a good South Florida team.
While UConn, Notre Dame and South Carolina seemed to have three of the 1-seeds locked up pretty securely, the fourth was a toss-up between Maryland and Tennessee. The committee opted to put Maryland at No. 1 in the West with Tennessee at No. 2. Since they're in the same region and will get the chance to determine things on the court, I'm OK with that seeding. Princeton's seeding, however, I'm not OK with. Say what you want about the RPI and the strength of schedule and all that other stuff, they're 30-0 and ranked 13th in the coaches poll, which I don't think gets anywhere near as much credence as it should. I had them pegged as a 5 or, at the lowest, a 6. There definitely aren't 28 teams in this tournament better than Princeton, and it's wrong that they have to play a No. 1 seed on the road just to get to the Sweet 16.
But that's the hand the committee dealt Princeton. I think they'll get by Green Bay pretty easily, and they'll give Maryland a game. But the Terps will pull out the victory and set up a yummy Sweet 16 matchup against their longtime ACC rivals Duke. It's sad that we've lost that one as a result of conference realignment, so it was nice of the committee to set it up for us. In the bottom half of the West bracket, Gonzaga's dangerous. Especially since they're effectively hosting the regional. I like the Zags against GW, and I can even see them beating Oregon State. Regardless, whoever wins that game isn't beating Tennessee. Mainly because I really want to see that Maryland-Tennessee matchup.
During the selection show, they put up a great stat about Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have lost three games in the last two years. But if you take out their two beatdowns by UConn, it's only one loss. Regardless, Notre Dame is determined to get back to the Final Four for the fifth straight year. It'll definitely be tough, though. Because they'll have to get by Minnesota, then Stanford, then Baylor to get there.
Notre Dame is better than each of those teams, so I do see them advancing, and it might end up working out better for them in the long run. As for the fourth team going to Oklahoma City for the regional, keep an eye on Miami. That's the other team Notre Dame lost to. They might be the 11-seed, but I see them beating Washington and I'm not 100 percent sold on Iowa, so I can see the upset there, too. I'm also pulling for an upset in Waco, however unlikely it might. Why? Because I want to see the epic struggle between Northwestern and Northwestern State.
For a good majority of the season, I've thought South Carolina was the overrated team in the nation. I still do. The Gamecocks are a chic Final Four pick, but I just don't see it. Look what happens to them when they play other good teams. So what's the NCAA do? Hand South Carolina the easiest bracket of any 1-seed, UConn included. It's as if they want to see South Carolina in the Final Four and are giftwrapping a trip to Tampa. And with the first two rounds at home and the regional in Greensboro, South Carolina's fans would be able to drive to every game. Talk about an advantage!
With the exception of Florida State, which is also looking for its first trip to the Final Four (which is taking place only four hours away from Tallahassee), I don't know who beats South Carolina here. James Madison will beat Ohio State, but fall to the Tar Hells and set up the matchup between the two schools that both claim to be called "Carolina." Meanwhile, I think Arizona State falls to Texas A&M, who then loses to Florida State.
My Elite Eight matchups are all 1 vs. 2, and I've got two of each winning. We'll finally get another UConn-Tennessee meeting, as the Lady Vols make their first Final Four appearance since 2008 (it's remarkable that it's been seven years since Tennessee's been in the Final Four). My other Final Four game is an all-ACC affair between Notre Dame and Florida State. Just like the ACC final, Notre Dame will get the win, setting up a National Championship Game rematch against rival UConn. It'll be Notre Dame's fourth trip to the title game in five years, but this one will end like the other three. UConn cuts down the nets in Tampa for its third straight National Championship.
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