The wait has been seemingly interminable. The fact that Winter refuses to go away is probably one of the main reasons why, but it seems like forever since there's been a Major League Baseball game. And, of course, this year the season starts on the latest possible date, making the wait that much longer.
But the light at the end of the tunnel is in sight. We're just 10 days away from Opening Day. And since baseball's my favorite sport and baseball season is one of my favorite times of the year, that means it's also time to finally start my world-famous six-part baseball preview.
I'll work my way west, but this year I'll mix it up a little. Instead of running through the American League this week and the National League next week, I'll go back-and-forth while still going from East to West. That gives me a chance to start with the division I know best--the AL East.
Now, I've heard all the "experts" dissect the AL East and explain why all five teams have no chance to make the playoffs. I've also heard those same "experts" explain why all five teams might win the division. Basically, no one knows what's going to happen in the AL East this season. There's no question that the division is nowhere near as intimidating as it used to be. All five teams are good, but none is considered among the favorites for the American League pennant. I guess that's why people are saying it's a down year for division. And that point I agree with. We're most likely not going to see a 90-game winner in the AL East, and they're probably looking at only the division winner playing in October. But without Minnesota and Houston and Texas to beat up on, they're all going to end up pretty close to one another. The AL East will likely be the most competitive division in baseball. I'm seeing four of the five winning between 80 and 90.
1. Toronto Blue Jays: A couple years ago, the Blue Jays were the chic pick to win the AL East after they made that massive trade with the Marlins. Well, we all know what happened then. This year, people are almost as high on the Blue Jays. And rightfully so. They've got a lot of weapons and are loaded with pitching. Except this time, Toronto's offseason moves weren't made to make a splash. They made smart moves that filled holes and improved the team. Case in point--the Josh Donaldson trade. Now they've got a solid No. 5 hitter to put after Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. And let's not underestimate the value of Russell Martin. Two years ago, the Yankees lost him and fell apart. The Pirates got him and turned into a playoff team. Now he returns home to Toronto looking to work that same magic with the Blue Jays. My biggest concern with Toronto is rotation depth, especially since they're going to be without Marcus Stroman. Their bullpen is very good, though. That strength could carry the Blue Jays if the rotation struggles even a little. I've been wrong about this team before. Two years ago, I bought into the hype. But this year's Blue Jays team seems different. With the Royals making it last year, Toronto now has the longest postseason drought in the Majors. I wouldn't be surprised if that changes and they end up winning the AL East.
Projected Lineup: Jose Reyes-SS, Michael Saunders-LF, Jose Bautista-RF, Edwin Encarnacion-DH, Josh Donaldson-3B, Russell Martin-C, Justin Smoak-1B, Maicer Izturis-2B, Dalton Pompey-CF
Projected Rotation: R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Drew Hutchison, Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada
Closer: Brett Cecil
Projected Record: 89-73
2. Boston Red Sox: In 2012, the Red Sox finished in last place. Then they won the 2013 World Series before finishing last again last season. So, in typical Red Sox fashion, they went out and spent a lot of money on free agents this winter. The resulting moves have made them a popular pick to get back to the top of the AL East. Except there's one big problem with that theory. When they traded Jon Lester to Oakland, the expectation was to get him back as a free agent and have both Lester and Yoenis Cespedes on the roster come April. Well, neither one plays in Boston. Lester decided he'd rather reunite with Theo Epstein in Chicago than reunite with the Red Sox. Since they had no backup plan whatsoever, they worked a trade with the Tigers to get Rick Porcello, who's not a No. 1 starter. The cost? Yoenis Cespedes. Meaning that trade served absolutely no long-term purpose for either team. The pitching's thin, which is why I don't like the Red Sox to win the division. The lineup is loaded, perhaps a little too loaded. It's been a couple months, but I'm still trying to make sense of the Hanley Ramirez signing. Boston doesn't actually have a place for him, so they're sticking a guy who's never played the outfield before in left field in Fenway. It's a confusing signing. Basically, they just threw a bunch of money at one of the best hitters available, then thought about it after the fact. For a team that takes great pride in "not doing things the way the Yankees do them," it was a very George Steinbrenner-like move. So was getting the Cuban second baseman. I'm not sure where they plan on playing him, either. I'm also not sure how good Pablo Sandoval's going to be in the American League or if they'll have enough food for both him and Big Papi. And Ortiz's inability to play an actual position really hurts them in interleague play, where they have to put him at first base and take Mike Napoli's bat out of the lineup. Where do the Red Sox start the season? In Philadelphia.
Projected Lineup: Mookie Betts-CF, Shane Victorino-RF, Dustin Pedroia-2B, David Ortiz-DH, Hanley Ramirez-LF, Mike Napoli-1B, Pablo Sandoval-3B, Xander Bogaerts-SS, Ryan Hanigan-C
Projected Rotation: Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Joe Kelly, Wade Miley, Justin Masterson
Closer: Koji Uehara
Projected Record: 88-74
3. New York Yankees: To everyone who keeps telling me how much the Yankees are going to suck this season, I beg to differ. Are they entering the season as favorites? No. Since people aren't accustomed to that, I guess it means they think the team isn't any good, but some of the projections I've seen are just ridiculous. There are so many "experts" who think the Yankees are a sub-.500 team. How? Because of injuries (first to all the hitters, then to all the pitchers), this team's been just about as bad as anyone can imagine over the past two seasons. Yet they've still won 84 and 85 games. And seeing as it's highly unlikely they'll have such a rash of injuries three years in a row, how can anybody in their right mind think the Yankees are any worse? Sure, a lot of their starters are old, but they didn't simply utilize their old approach of overspending for every available free agent (that's what the Red Sox did). Instead they made moves that they thought made sense for the team, even though that meant not even going after James Shields, who would've been a perfect fit. Losing David Robertson hurts, but Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller are plenty capable at the back-end of the bullpen, which remains probably their greatest strength. Masahiro Tanaka's a Tommy John surgery waiting to happen, but if the top three in the rotation stay healthy and CC returns to form, that's a very dynamic front-end. As for the offense, which has been the Yankees' Achilles heel over the past couple seasons, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann and Mark Teixeira really need to have bounce-back years. I've made my peace with re-signing Stephen Drew because, as Brian Cashman explained, it's not possible for him to suck as much as he did last season two years in a row. And if he does, they'll just cut him. I was very adamant about wanting Chase Headley at the deadline last year, and to keep him this offseason, so I'm glad he's in Pinstripes for the long run. Didi Gregorius will never be Derek Jeter, so I hope people don't expect him to be. He's a much better shortstop, though. Then there's the elephant in the room. All of those people projecting 78 wins also didn't have A-Rod involved with this team at all. Well you know what? They weren't just going to cut a guy they owe $61 million over the next three years. I think A-Rod could be the missing piece in this lineup. Especially since he's the only right-handed-hitting starter. He's going to be 40. He doesn't give you anything at third base. That's why it was important to re-sign Headley. But I think Rodriguez is going to give the Yankees more than his critics expect. If everything goes right this season, the Yankees can definitely end their two-year playoff drought
Projected Lineup: Jacoby Ellsbury-CF, Brett Gardner-LF, Carlos Beltran-RF, Mark Teixeira-1B, Alex Rodriguez-DH, Chase Headley-3B, Brian McCann-C, Stephen Drew-2B, Didi Gregorius-SS
Projected Rotation: Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, Adam Warren
Closer: Dellin Betances
Projected Record: 86-76
4. Baltimore Orioles: Everything that possibly could've gone right for the Baltimore Orioles last season did. They won their first division title in 17 years and made it to the ALCS with a roster that, for the most part, was devoid of superstars. It's impressive that they made this run without two of their best players--Matt Wieters and Manny Machado. They get those two back at some point in 2015, but they also lost Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis in free agency. That'll hurt Baltimore more than people think. Chris Davis has one more game left on his suspension, but American League pitchers figured him out after that monster first half in 2013. That leaves Adam Jones as their only legitimate, in-his-prime star. He's surrounded by a bunch of good bats, but they'll need to make up for Cruz's power somehow. My biggest concern with Baltimore, though, is the pitching. The most remarkable thing about the 2014 Orioles is that their pitching staff consisted of a bunch of No. 3 starters. And they got more out of Chris Tillman and Wei-Yin Chen and Michael Gonzalez than anyone could've ever expected. But will all those extra innings pitched in the postseason have an effect on them this year? They really needed to make a run at James Shields or somebody else who could be considered an "ace" and they didn't do it. Because the Orioles also aren't going to sneak up on anybody anymore, and they aren't as good as they were last season. Of course, I've said that about the Orioles before, so what do I know? Like everyone else in this division, everything could go right and they could end up winning 90 games. I think finishing near .500 is more likely.
Projected Lineup: Alejandro De Aza-LF, Manny Machado-3B, Adam Jones-CF, Chris Davis-1B, Matt Wieters-C, J.J. Hardy-SS, Steve Pearce-DH, Travis Snider-RF, Jonathan Schoop-2B
Projected Rotation: Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris, Michael Gonzalez, Ubaldo Jimenez
Closer: Zach Britton
Projected Record: 81-81
5. Tampa Bay Rays: The team in the AL East I think is most likely to struggle this season is Tampa Bay. The Rays had such an incredible run for a few years before injuries caught up to them and they only won 77 games last season. But one big component of those teams is gone. Joe Maddon is now the manager of the Cubs. And his loss will be felt. Maddon worked wonders with this team, taking them to the World Series in 2008 and making them contenders almost every year. It'll be a difficult task for new manager Kevin Cash to keep up the magic, though. For starters, the Rays simply aren't as good a team as they've been. David Price? Traded to Detroit. Ben Zobrist? Traded to Oakland. Wil Myers? Traded to San Diego. They're left with the Face of the Franchise, Evan Longoria, and not much else. Of course, the strength of the team is still its fantastic pitching staff, though. Except they don't have David Price anymore, and most of their starting pitchers are dealing with some sort of injury issues. I don't think they're going to regress back to the Devil Rays days. This franchise has come too far for that. But it's definitely going to be a struggle in 2015. The Rays simply aren't as good as the rest of the AL East.
Projected Lineup: Desmond Jennings-LF, Asdrubal Cabrera-SS, Evan Longoria-3B, James Loney-1B, John Jaso-DH, Steven Souza-RF, Logan Forsythe-2B, Rene Rivera-C, Kevin Kiermaier-CF
Projected Rotation: Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly, Matt Moore
Closer: Grant Balfour
Projected Record: 75-87
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