It was an eventful, and surprising, first half of the baseball season. I don't think anybody expected Oakland to be THIS good, and most predictions had the Brewers at the bottom of the NL Central, not the top. Then there's the Royals, the Mariners, the Orioles and the Blue Jays, four teams in the thick of the American League playoff race that very few thought would be. (I'm also not sure many people expected the Rangers to be this bad.)
With so many teams that are still "in the race," or at least think they are, the second half is certainly going to be fun. Some of these races will go right down to the wire, while somebody's going to get hot and make a run. The trade deadline is also going to be a big factor. Who's going to make the right moves that get them into the postseason?
AL East: The Orioles are in first place, which is a little surprising because of Baltimore's pitching and the fact that they haven't had Matt Wieters for most of the season. The Blue Jays were leading the way for most of the year until hitting a bump in the road over the past couple weeks, but I still like Toronto's talent. They need to weather these DL stints by Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind, and they need to find other ways to score besides the home run (which is the reason for their problems), but I fully expect the Blue Jays to be involved in this thing for the duration. Then there's the Yankees. Inconsistent to say the least, but only five games out in what's turned out to be a weak division this year. They obviously need to address the starting pitching situation and need to actually score in more than one inning per game to stay in it. The AL East is very winnable this year, though, and you know the Yankees are going to be one of the more aggressive teams at the deadline. They're not out of it by any means. This will probably be a three-team race going forward.
AL Central: This is usually the point in the season where the Tigers begin to assert themselves. Everyone knows that Detroit's the best team in this division, and they already have a 6.5-game lead over the surprising Royals. The Tigers are simply too good and too deep for anyone else to legitimately think about anything other than a wild card. It'll take a pretty major collapse or a historic stretch for somebody to catch them. The Royals and Indians will have to fight each other for second place, because at least one wild card is coming out of the West. Kansas City's a little better in my opinion, but the Royals haven't been in this position before, so I'm not sure they'll be able to sustain it. They might be like last year's Pirates, though, so clueless about what's going on that it'll actually be a good thing. Cleveland's not as good as they were last year. I don't see the Indians keeping pace.
AL West: When Oakland traded for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, they did it with October in mind. They won't admit it, but they were thinking about the Tigers and those back-to-back five-game Division Series losses. Well, the good news for the A's is that they probably won't play Detroit in the Division Series this year. However, if they finish with the best record, which I think they will, that means they get the winner of the Wild Card Game. And that could easily be the rival Angels. Anaheim's the best team in the wild card mix, so I fully expect them to host the Wild Card Game. In fact, they might be the second-best team in the American League, which exposes the only flaw of the current playoff system. Barring anything unforeseen, the Angels will be in the playoffs. Seattle, though, I'm not sure about. The Mariners are finally good for the first time in Felix Hernandez's career. Can they keep it going? Seattle's the most interesting team in this race. Because I think they can, but I'm not sure they will. And if we do see all three AL West teams in the playoffs, that'll make things even more interesting...because they're probably the only ones that can beat each other.
NL East: As most expected, this is shaping up to be a two-team race between the Braves and the Nationals. They're tied for first and the second wild card right now, and it wouldn't be a stretch to say we might see both of them in October. As for which one will win the division, though, I like the Nationals. The differences between these two teams are very minimal. I just think the Washington rotation and starting eight are just a tick better. The Braves will miss Evan Gattis, and their starting staff simply isn't as deep as Washington's. The one advantage Atlanta has is that superior bullpen. Much like the AL West, the bottom teams in the NL East are nowhere near as good as the top two. However, the Mets, Marlins and Phillies might have a say in who wins the division. One of them is going to beat one or the other enough to influence the race. The question is: will it also cost Atlanta or Washington a shot at a wild card?
NL Central: Without a doubt, the Brewers were the most surprising team of the first half. Milwaukee's been in first place pretty much all season, but can they hold off the three teams that made the playoffs last season? My pick in the NL Central is still the Cardinals. They're annoyingly good. No matter what, they seem to end up in the playoffs every year. And they've probably already started their run. St. Louis is only a game back...with Cincinnati only a half-game behind them. And the Pirates are still involved, too, just 3.5 behind Milwaukee. Pittsburgh finally got over the .500 hump last season, and they might again this year, but I don't think they'll get back to the playoffs. They'll need to overtake at least two teams in the division, as well as somebody from another, to earn a wild card, and I just don't see it happening. I'm not sure I see Cincinnati making the postseason for a third straight year, either. The Reds will be in the thick of things and might even pass the Brewers, but they're not going to pass the Cardinals, and with the Giants/Dodgers loser all but guaranteed to host the Wild Card Game, there's only one wild card available. Then again, the Brewers have surprised me all year, so I half expect them to end up holding off St. Louis and winning the division after all.
NL West: Everybody's preseason pick to win the National League pennant, the Los Angeles Dodgers, is once again playing like the team to beat. The Dodgers have unfinished business after losing the NLCS last season, and they've been looking towards October for a while. There aren't three teams better than the Dodgers that can knock them out of the playoffs. Except winning the division isn't a total guarantee yet. That's because the Giants have been nearly as good, if not just as good, all season. And I don't see that changing. The Dodgers are better, so they should win the division by a game or two, but San Francisco's not going anywhere. The Giants are going to join them in October (after all, it's San Francisco's turn in the cycle to represent the NL in the World Series). What I'm anxious to see possibly happen would be these two meeting in the Division Series, which can happen if the Giants win the Wild Card Game and the Dodgers have the best record. With that pitching, San Francisco could easily knock off their archrivals in the postseason.
Playoff Teams:
AL-Athletics (West), Tigers (Central), Blue Jays (East), Angels (Wild Card 1), Orioles (Wild Card 2)
NL-Dodgers (West), Nationals (East), Cardinals (Central), Giants (Wild Card 1), Braves (Wild Card 2)
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