In news that came as a shock to absolutely no one, the IOC announced today three finalist cities for the 2022 Winter Olympics. It's no surprise because these were the only three cities left in the running after Krakow, Poland; Stockholm, Sweden; and Lviv, Ukraine all dropped out. So, with the contenders limited to just Almaty, Kazakhstan; Beijing, China; and Oslo, Norway, there was really no reason for them to cut the field any further.
Even though there's only three cities left in the running, it's still going to be interesting to see this race play out. Beijing has absolutely no chance. I think even they know that. If the other cities had kept their bids alive, Beijing probably would've been cut. For starters, they want to have the ice events in the city and the snow events 120 miles away. Does anyone actually think that would work?
Beijing wants to be the first city to host both the Summer and Winter Games (which I don't ever want to see happen). Except they hosted the Summer Games in 2008, just 14 years earlier. That's way too soon to go back to the same city, even if it is in the opposite season. But the biggest thing working against Beijing is the location of the 2018 and 2020 Olympics. They're not going to go Korea, Japan, China three Olympics in a row. Throw in Rio, and you've already got three straight Olympics outside Europe. (Going back to the 2008 Beijing Games, it's five out of seven outside of Europe, including three in the Far East.)
That's why it was so important that Oslo stayed in the race. There was some worry that it wouldn't, and the Norwegian government is still only 50-50 on the prospects of hosting the Olympics, but it was important to the Olympic community that there be a bidder from Europe, especially a European country so rich in Winter tradition.
It would've been a shame to have this be a two-horse race between Almaty and Beijing. Because Oslo might have the strongest bid of the three, and the idea of the Winter Olympics in Norway just seems so right. The Lillehammer Games were magical, and an Olympics in Oslo would be just as spectacular. And after Sochi and Pyeongchang, which basically built winter sports resorts from scratch for the Olympics, it'd be nice to have a Winter Olympics in a city (and a country) that actually makes sense. Norway's the first country a lot of people think of when they think of the Winter Olympics.
Oslo is also looking to become a two-time Olympic host. Unlike Beijing, Oslo is bidding to host the Winter Games for the second time. And unlike Beijing, Oslo's not trying to double-dip too soon. The Norwegian capital last hosted the Winter Games in 1952. Oslo would become just the third city to host the Winter Olympics twice, and Norway would be third country to have three or more Winter Olympics.
The third finalist city is perhaps the most intriguing--Almaty, Kazakhstan. Almaty hosted the 2011 Asian Winter Games and will also be hosting the 2017 Winter Universiade, which could both serve as precursors to hosting the Olympics (Rio hosted a successful Pan American Games in 2007, then won its Olympic bid in 2009, and you know a Toronto Olympic bid will come soon if the 2015 Pan Am Games go well). They've bid before, but never been a finalist until now, and Almaty might be considered a slight favorite right now due to the Oslo situation.
Almaty would open the Olympics to another new area, as no Central Asian nation has ever hosted. However, Kazakhstan used to be part of the Soviet Union, and the Games were just in Russia. So, you'd really just be going back and forth to pretty much the same place only eight years apart. And with Pyeongchang, it would also be consecutive Winter Games in Asia (and three overall).
If, and it's a big if right now, Oslo can get the governmental support and make the financial guarantee, I think Oslo will be the overwhelming favorite in this race. In fact, I'd be very surprised to see one of the other two cities win. There's no official rotation among the continents, but 2022 would be Europe's turn, especially since the consensus is growing that 2024 should be in Africa.
However, if this becomes a two-horse race between Almaty and Beijing, then it becomes Almaty's Olympics to lose. I think they're positioned to host a very good and very successful Winter Olympics. Just not yet. If the opposition doesn't include Oslo, though, and the decision comes down to Almaty or Beijing, then I would give Almaty its shot.
Either way, it'll be one of those two cities that hosts the 2022 Winter Olympics. They won't be in Beijing, that you can be sure of. (Although, stranger things have happened.)
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