So, before I get into the picks for the final week of the regular season, a little NFL story. I was walking down 6th Avenue towards Rockefeller Center to see the tree earlier tonight and who walks by me on the street? None other than Shannon Sharpe.
Now on to the picks. As usual, all 16 games are division matchups. But even more remarkably, 13 of the 16 have some bearing on the playoff races. Some more than others, obviously, but there are two winner-take-all games in the NFC and the AFC has three teams tied for the second wild card spot, not one of which controls their own destiny. I think they achieved what they had in mind when they made that change a couple years ago to have only division games in the final week.
Panthers (11-4) at Falcons (4-11): Carolina-Who would've thought when they were 1-3 that Carolina would have a chance to wrap up the division and a first-round bye in Week 17? The Panthers can even get home field with a win and a Seahawks loss, but they'll settle for clinching the South and the No. 2 seed, something that was made possible by their win over the Saints last week. And since the Seahawks-Rams game is a late game, Seattle's going to go into it knowing they'll have to play their starters. Because the Panthers will be the NFC South champions.
Ravens (8-7) at Bengals (10-5): Cincinnati-The third-best game of the week, and probably the biggest game in the AFC. With a win, Cincinnati will still have a chance at the 2-seed and keep the pressure on New England (which kicks off at 4:30). Baltimore, meanwhile, needs a win to have a chance to defend its title. The Ravens could win and still be out, though. Things are that crazy in the race for that second AFC wild card. Something else to consider is that if Baltimore does win and get the help it needs, these two could be doing this all over again next weekend. I don't think that happens, though. The Bengals are excellent at home and have been one of the most unsung good teams in the league all season.
Texans (2-13) at Titans (6-9): Tennessee-One of the three that doesn't matter. The only suspense in this game is whether or not the Texans can win and snap their 13-game losing streak. A win could possibly cost them the No. 1 pick, though. As one of the two teams to lose to Houston this year, the Titans want to make sure that doesn't happen again. All's not lost in Houston, though. Look at Kansas City this year. From 2-14 and the No. 1 pick to the playoffs.
Jaguars (4-11) at Colts (10-5): Indianapolis-The level of mattering in this one is minimal. The Colts can still theoretically move up to the No. 2 or 3 seed, but they pretty much know that they're hosting the Chiefs next week. So, I'm not sure how long Indy's starters will play. If they do, the Colts win. Even if not, I'd imagine Indy pulls it out.
Jets (7-8) at Dolphins (8-7): Miami-It's incredible to think that the Jets, a team many people thought would be among the worst in the NFL, can finish .500 with a win in their finale. Except, they won last week, so, following the trend of the Jets' season, they'll lose this week. That, and they're playing a Dolphins team that can (and will) clinch a playoff berth. With a victory and a Cincinnati win over Baltimore (or a Chargers win over Kansas City), Miami's in. Welcome to the playoffs, Dolphins.
Lions (7-8) at Vikings (4-10-1): Detroit-The week after we said goodbye to Candlestick, we say farewell to the Metrodome. That's the only intrigue left in this game, which had any remaining relevance sucked out of it when the Lions capped their really bad week with an overtime loss to the Giants. It's incredible that Detroit went from division leaders to eliminated in six days, but that's a story for another day. I'll say the Lions win this one and at least get themselves back to .500.
Redskins (3-12) at Giants (6-9): Giants-Our third and final irrelevant game of the weekend pits the Redskins against the Giants in the final game at the Meadowlands before the Super Bowl. It might also be Mike Shanahan's final game as Washington's coach. If they play their cards right, the Redskins can steal the No. 1 pick away from the Texans. As for the Giants, finishing 7-9 would actually be fairly impressive considering that 0-6 start. It would also give them the same record as the Jets this season.
Browns (4-11) at Steelers (7-8): Pittsburgh-Speaking of teams that got off to horrible starts, Pittsburgh is, incredibly, still alive for the remaining AFC playoff berth. It's highly unlikely, considering the number of things they need to have happen in order to do that, but it's impressive nonetheless. Beating their archrivals to end the season .500 is a small consolation, but considering how bad this season was going for the Steelers, I'm sure they'll take it.
Packers (7-7-1) at Bears (8-7): Chicago-Aaron Rodgers returns for the NFC North championship game against the same Bears team that knocked him out on that Monday night in Lambeau. Rodgers is a better alternative than Matt Flynn or whoever else the Packers might send out there, but how effective is he going to be in a winner-take-all game after having nearly two months off? I normally wouldn't count Aaron Rodgers out, but I'd like his chances a little better if they were playing in Green Bay. Instead they're going into Soldier Field against a Bears team that had a chance to wrap up the division last Sunday night, but got completely thumped by the Eagles instead. Even still, I actually do trust Jay Cutler in this situation. For some reason, I don't think the Bears put together two clunkers in a row. Especially with so much at stake. And against the Packers.
Broncos (12-3) at Raiders (4-11): Denver-Peyton's record is taken care of, but he and the rest of the Broncos' starters have to play the whole game in Oakland. Because the Patriots can still technically take away home field. And home field advantage is very important to the Denver Broncos. They're not gonna let it slip away.
Bills (6-9) at Patriots (11-4): New England-New England's in a very interesting situation. They're likely going to be the No. 2 seed, but can still move up to No. 1 or potentially fall all the way to No. 4 (and a matchup with Kansas City that they don't want). After what they did in Baltimore last week to wrap up yet another division title, the Patriots seem to be peaking at just the right time. They'll beat the Bills in Foxboro to, at the very least, secure a bye.
Buccaneers (4-11) at Saints (10-5): New Orleans-Thanks to an ill-timed two-game losing streak, New Orleans has gone from having a bye to a road game next week. If they're not careful, the Saints could end up being left out of the playoffs entirely. The good news for them is that they return to the Superdome this week, and all they need to do is win to get in. New Orleans is one of the best teams in the NFC. They SHOULD be in the playoffs.
49ers (11-4) at Cardinals (10-5): San Francisco-The Arizona Cardinals are the best team that's not going to make the playoffs. It's even more remarkable to think that Arizona could be 11-5 and miss the playoffs. So much for the NFC West being the worst division in football! Even with a 49ers win, Arizona would be 10-6 and without-a-doubt, the best third-place team we've seen in a while (and that includes the AFC North two years ago). San Francisco can still win the division and even potentially get home field, so the 49ers still have something to play for. That's what makes this one difficult to pick. By a very narrow margin, I'm going with San Francisco.
Chiefs (11-4) at Chargers (8-7): San Diego-If that game was a tough one to pick, this one is nearly impossible. Kansas City has nothing to play for and will rest several starters accordingly. It means everything for the Chargers, though. Except it might not. If the Dolphins and Bengals win in their early games, San Diego's eliminated. And you'd have to wonder what the Chargers' motivation is if they know they're out. I think that will be the case, but since Kansas City has very little interest in winning the game, that might not matter too much. I think the Chargers win anyway. Besides, 9-7 looks so much better than 8-8.
Rams (7-8) at Seahawks (12-3): Seattle-Remember a couple years ago, before the Week 17 Sunday night game became the exclusive domain of the Dallas Cowboys, when the Rams and Seahawks met in the finale in Seattle with the NFC West at stake? Seattle won to become the first 7-9 division champion in NFL history. Well, this year, things are a little different. And the Seahawks, incredibly, haven't clinched the home field advantage that has seemed inevitably theirs all season yet. Arizona showed us last week that the Seahawks aren't invincible at Qwest Field. It'll still be tough for the two NFC teams that have to go there in the playoffs, though.
Eagles (9-6) at Cowboys (8-7): Philadelphia-The 256th and final game of the NFL regular season once again features the Dallas Cowboys in a winner-take-all showdown for the NFC East title. Maybe the third time's the charm. And, in a change of script, it can't be Tony Romo's fault they lose this time. (I wouldn't be surprised to see some people say that, if Dallas loses, it was because they didn't have Romo.) The Eagles won't lose if they play the way they played last week. Plus, they've got the advantage of Nick Foles running that red-hot offense. An offense that's much different than the one that only scored three points the first time they played the Cowboys. They were 3-5. Since then, they've won six out of seven. Make it seven out of eight for the NFC East champs.
Clinching Playoff Berths: Miami, Chicago, Philadelphia
Last Week: 10-6
Season: 154-85-1
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