Sunday, December 8, 2013

Week 14 NFL Picks

Getting down to the nitty-gritty now.  The Seahawks became the first team to clinch a playoff spot on Monday night, and a whole bunch of others can join them this weekend.  And, as fate would have it, we've got a bunch of those good teams playing each other.  That's what football in December should be about.  It's looking like a pretty good slate of games in Week 14.

Colts (8-4) at Bengals (8-4): Cincinnati-The winner here gets the inside track at the No. 3 seed and avoiding Denver (if Cincinnati wins, they've still got a decent chance at a bye, since they beat New England).  The Colts can even clinch the AFC South with a win or a Titans loss in Denver.  Since this one's an early game, though, Indy won't already know whether or not its in the playoffs at kickoff.  The Bengals are a dangerous playoff sleeper.  Nobody's talking about them as a Super Bowl contender, but they're on the verge of their third straight playoff appearance.  I'm not counting the Bengals out come January.  And Cincinnati's the better team.  They'll prove it here.

Falcons (3-9) at Packers (5-6-1): Green Bay-They flexed it out of Sunday night for obvious reasons.  It looks like Aaron Rodgers is still a no-go for Green Bay, and the nation saw loud and clear how bad this team is without him on Thanksgiving.  The Falcons finally snapped their losing streak last week, but only because the Bills gifted them one in Toronto.  They haven't won a game in this country since October 20.  One of these two has to win.  I'll play the weather card and say the Packers pull it out and keep their waning playoff chances alive.

Browns (4-8) at Patriots (9-3): New England-New England once again has just gone about its business.  The Patriots can clinch yet another AFC East title and move closer to yet another first-round bye with a win.  Although, they do have tough ones coming up at wild card contenders Miami and Baltimore in the next two weeks.  All the more reason I'm fairly certain they'll beat Cleveland at home.

Raiders (4-8) at Jets (5-7): Oakland-In a week full of good games, this is the Sunday equivalent of that Jaguars-Texans game we were subjected to on Thursday.  This game doesn't matter.  The loser's pretty much done.  The Jets suck slightly more right now, so I'll say the Raiders "win" by default.

Lions (7-5) at Eagles (7-5): Detroit-Fun fact: I flew from Detroit to Philadelphia this afternoon, although not on a private charter like the Lions.  Anyway, it's a matchup of division leaders that's very important for Philly.  I think the Lions are going to end up winning the North, simply because of the problems both the Bears and the Packers are having right now.  It'll be a fight for the Eagles to win the East, and it'll probably come down to that last game against the Cowboys.  The Eagles really need to win this one to make sure that Dallas game means something, but I'm not sure they will.

Dolphins (6-6) at Steelers (5-7): Miami-Don't look now, but Pittsburgh is back in the playoff race.  Although, that loss in Baltimore on Thanksgiving night probably doomed the Steelers.  The Dolphins' playoff chances are a lot better.  In fact, they're tied with Baltimore for the last spot with nothing but division games left after this one.  No margin for error for Miami the rest of the way.  I'm gonna say the Dolphins win and stay even (at the very least) with the Ravens.

Bills (4-8) at Buccaneers (3-9): Tampa Bay-Remember the middle of the season when we were all trying to figure out when and if Tampa Bay and/or Jacksonville would ever win?  Boy, how times have changed.  The Jaguars have won three straight and four out of five, and the Bucs are looking to win four out of five themselves.  I don't know what happened with the Bills against Atlanta last week.  It was bad, though.  The Bucs make it four out of five.

Chiefs (9-3) at Redskins (3-9): Kansas City-After three straight losses (all in division games), Kansas City is suddenly staring at the 5-seed.  Their chances of making the playoffs are still pretty good, though.  In fact, they can wrap up a berth this week.  The Redskins were quasi-screwed at the end of the Giants game, but I don't think they would've won anyway.  Regardless, Washington's a mess.  KC snaps its skid.

Vikings (3-8-1) at Ravens (6-6): Baltimore-With Detroit, New England and Cincinnati left on the schedule, it's not an easy road for the Ravens to get back to the playoffs.  But if they get in, they're certainly going to earn it.  What that also means, though, is that they absolutely CANNOT, under any circumstances, lose to Minnesota at home.

Titans (5-7) at Broncos (10-2): Denver-Denver doesn't have to do much to clinch a playoff spot.  One win or one Dolphins/Ravens loss the rest of the way locks up a berth.  Of course, the Broncos are looking at home field right now, and that's the goal, especially now that the division is pretty much out of the way thanks to that sweep of Kansas City.  The Titans will provide a small challenge, but not enough to knock off the Broncos in Denver.

Rams (5-7) at Cardinals (7-5): Arizona-That was a tough loss for the Cardinals last week.  It put the 49ers back in the driver's seat for the second NFC wild card.  With San Francisco playing the Seahawks this week (and Carolina playing New Orleans), it's Arizona's chance to jump right back in the postseason conversation.  It's also the Rams' chance to play the role of spoiler.  I'm going Arizona, though.

Giants (5-7) at Chargers (5-7): San Diego-The Chargers aren't out of it yet, and they're a good December team.  The Giants need to win out and get a lot of help, but I think even they'd admit their playoff chances are slim to none (a loss and a 49ers win eliminates the Giants).  It doesn't help that their remaining schedule is brutal (fly cross-country, then play Seattle and Detroit).  A San Diego win can put the Giants out of their misery.

Seahawks (11-1) at 49ers (8-4): San Francisco-I don't think there's any doubt that Seattle is far-and-away the best team in the NFC, if not the entire NFL.  They thoroughly dismantled the Saints on Monday night.  With a win here, their magic number to clinch the 1-seed is one.  (Even with a loss, it's still two, seeing as they already beat both New Orleans and Carolina.)  As a result, this game is much more important for San Francisco.  The 49ers have been embarrassed each of the last two times they played the Seahawks.  They haven't forgotten that.  They want to make a statement of their own and hand Seattle its first conference loss of the season.

Panthers (9-3) at Saints (9-3): New Orleans-They flexed this one into Sunday night, and can you blame them?  The Panthers and Saints are playing twice in the next three weeks, with the 2-seed in the NFC likely at stake.  Nobody wants to play Carolina right now.  An eight-game winning streak to move into a tie for first place.  Nobody wants to play in the Superdome, either.  That, I think, is going to be the X-factor in this one.  The winning streak ends at the hands of the Saints.

Cowboys (7-5) at Bears (6-6): Dallas-Another important Monday nighter.  First-place Dallas is on extended rest after that Thanksgiving win over the Raiders.  Chicago, meanwhile, is still the most confusing team in all of football.  The Bears are virtually out of the wild card race, but can definitely still win the North.  This game and Philly-Detroit will obviously have huge impacts on each other.  I don't trust the Bears enough to pick them here, but I also think this is the game where the Cowboys are most likely to slip up before that (probably) winner-take-all season finale against the Eagles.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 12-4
Season: 123-69-1

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