Sunday, December 22, 2013

NFL Week 16 Picks

There's only two weeks left.  Eight days until the NFL season is over.  And that means the playoff races are getting awfully tight.  Berths can be clinched all over the place this week, and we've even got a potential playoff preview in Kansas City, as well as a couple possible division-deciders and a Super Bowl XLV rematch in Green Bay.  Oh yeah, and it's 70 degrees in New York and Philadelphia, a vast difference from the snow.

Dolphins (8-6) at Bills (5-9): Miami-This game is one of the trickiest ones all week.  Miami has historically struggled in Buffalo in December, so a Bills win doesn't seem that far out of the question.  And if that happens, New England wraps up yet another AFC East title.  But the Dolphins are on a roll and know that they need this one to clinch that playoff berth that's theirs for the taking.  Especially since Baltimore won last week.  I think that's enough for the Dolphins to overcome their December-in-Buffalo aversion.

Vikings (4-9-1) at Bengals (9-5): Cincinnati-The Bengals are lucky that their final two games are at home.  Because they're not a good road team.  Take last week.  They had a chance to move up to the No. 2 seed in the AFC after the Patriots' loss, then get completely smacked in Pittsburgh.  The Ravens next week aren't a gimme, either, so the Bengals can't slip up against the Vikings.  They're still the favorites to win the AFC North, though, and will clinch the division with a win and a Patriots win over Baltimore.

Colts (9-5) at Chiefs (11-3): Kansas City-We're likely to see this matchup again two weeks from now in a wild card game.  Both teams are already in, and they both need some help to avoid that 4-5 matchup.  Kansas City's chances of getting out of it look a little better.  With that Denver loss last week, the Chiefs are back to being tied with the Broncos, so if they win out and the Broncos lose one of their last two, the Chiefs will actually get the No. 1 seed.  First they've got to get by the Colts, though.  I think they will.  Both this week and two weeks from now.

Buccaneers (4-10) at Rams (6-8): St. Louis-St. Louis is the team nobody wants to play right now, especially after they beat the Saints last week.  Fortunately for all the playoff contenders, they're playing the Bucs.  This will be a very scary team next season.  As for this season, they'll be going for .500 in their finale.

Browns (4-10) at Jets (6-8): Jets-A 61-yard field goal in the final minute of the Monday night game ended any delusions Jets fans had about their team actually making the playoffs.  So, no, they won't be playing a home game in the Super Bowl (as if that was going to happen even if they got in).  Now that there's absolutely nothing for them to play for, they may mail it in.  But in the alternating win-loss formula of their season, this week is a win, perhaps Rex's last.

Cowboys (7-7) at Redskins (3-11): Dallas-After last week, Dallas doesn't deserve to be in the playoffs.  How do you blow that lead?  At home?  And why are you throwing the ball when you're team that's UP in the second half?  If they lose to Washington and the Eagles win, they won't have a chance to win the division in the finale for the third straight year.  Next week will be meaningless.  Fortunately, they're playing a Redskins team that has already shut down Robert Griffin III and is only playing for draft position.  Although they would like nothing more than playing spoiler.

Saints (10-4) at Panthers (10-4): New Orleans-We're right back where we started when these two faced each other two weeks ago.  The winner clinches a playoff spot, and if it's New Orleans, they also wrap up the NFC South and a first-round bye.  Big difference between Week 17 being very important or totally meaningless.  Carolina's been very good at home, and that defense makes them a very scary team come playoff time.  But they were absolutely crushed in New Orleans just two weeks ago.  That's why I've got to go with the Saints here.

Titans (5-9) at Jaguars (4-10): Tennessee-Believe it or not, Jacksonville can actually end up finishing the season in second place!  That speaks more to the quality of the AFC South than it does about the Jaguars, but there's no denying Jacksonville's had an incredible turnaround since we all thought they might potentially go 0-16 at midseason.  The Titans are one of the teams they've beaten.  I'll give Tennessee the benefit of the doubt and say it doesn't happen again.

Broncos (11-3) at Texans (2-12): Denver-Losing last week might've actually been a good thing for the Broncos.  Because they went from having absolutely nothing to play for in the last two games to needing wins in both.  And that No. 1 seed is incredibly important.  The Broncos won't go to the Super Bowl if they have to go on the road and play that extra game.  The good news about those last two games is that they're against the Texans and Raiders.

Giants (5-9) at Lions (7-7): Detroit-No team had it rougher last week than the Lions.  They began the week in first place.  By the end if it, they were in third and no longer controlled their own destiny.  However, they have the easiest remaining schedule of the three NFC North contenders.  The Giants are going through the motions.  If that.  Last week was embarrassing.

Cardinals (9-5) at Seahawks (12-2): Seattle-It's almost not fair that the Seahawks' final two games are at home.  In fact, their loss in San Francisco two weeks ago marks the last time Seattle will play a game outside of their own stadium or Giants Stadium this season.  And how much of an advantage was it that they got a little Super Bowl tune-up last week?  The Cardinals are hot and definitely making a push towards sneaking into the playoffs, but they've drawn the short straw this week with a trip to Seattle.  The Seahawks will officially clinch that No. 1 seed that's been theirs for most of the season.

Steelers (6-8) at Packers (7-6-1): Green Bay-The second half of last week's game in Dallas made this game a lot more interesting.  Suddenly the Packers' chances of winning the division are very real, and Matt Flynn is finally giving them someone to keep the seat warm for Aaron Rodgers, who could return for the potential do-or-die game next week in Chicago.  The only way that game's do-or-die, though, is if the Packers beat Pittsburgh at Lambeau.  After last week, I'm not banking against that.

Raiders (4-10) at Chargers (7-7): San Diego-San Diego has beaten both Denver and Kansas City this season and, as a result, the Chargers are still in contention for that second wild card spot.  They'd be in better shape if they didn't also have a loss to the Raiders, but they have a chance to avenge that this week.  With a win, they'll be 8-7 heading into next week's rematch with the Chiefs.  If they lose, next week doesn't matter at all.

Patriots (10-4) at Ravens (8-6): New England-This was a perfectly fine Sunday night game, but they flexed it out.  I'm somewhat surprised by that.  Anyway, the whole AFC playoff picture will be a lot clearer after this one.  If Baltimore wins out, they don't just clinch a playoff berth, they'll actually win the AFC North!  I should probably know better than to bet against them, but I also know better than to bet against Tom Brady.  And, as a result of last week, the Patriots haven't clinched anything yet.  If they lose, they're in danger of dropping into wild card weekend.  You also never see New England lose back-to-back games.  That's why I'm going with the Patriots here.

Bears (8-6) at Eagles (8-6): Philadelphia-I'm not complaining too badly about that Sunday-night thing because this is the one they flexed in.  Chicago and Philadelphia are both division leaders, and they're both playing the second-place team next week, so there's a very good chance that one's going to play consecutive Sunday night games.  Anyway, with everything that's at stake, this game is huge.  Both Marc Trestman and Chip Kelly were brought in because of playoff failures by the previous coach.  Now they each have a chance to win a division title in their first season.  The Eagles will know coming in if they can wrap up the NFC East, while the Bears have both the Packers and Lions on their heels, so they know they need a win regardless.  In addition, the winner here has the inside track on the 3-seed, which means avoiding Carolina in the playoffs.  I'm not saying either one should be thinking about that, but it adds to the intrigue nonetheless.  As for a winner, I'll say the Eagles since the game's in Philadelphia, and that's really the only reason.

Falcons (4-10) at 49ers (10-4): San Francisco-San Francisco is technically the only team that can beat out Seattle for homefield, but everyone knows the 49ers will be on the road throughout the playoffs.  That means the final Monday nighter of the season will also be the final game at Candlestick.  A Seahawks win strangely helps the 49ers, too, because a win and a Cardinals loss wraps up a playoff berth.  (Although it would be fun if they're playing a winner-take-all game for a wild card next week.)  As for the whole Candlestick Farewell thing, do you really think they're going to close the stadium with a loss to the Falcons?  I don't.

Last Week: 9-7
Season: 144-79-1

No comments:

Post a Comment