Welcome Back, Serena

Serena Williams is back.  That's obviously the biggest story heading into Wimbledon.  And it should be.  She began her comeback shortly after the French Open and was only playing doubles at first, but you had a feeling the seven-time Wimbledon champion would want to play singles at the All-England Club.  They left a wild card open for her just in case.  So, it wasn't really surprising when she decided to take it and make her return to Wimbledon, where she'll also play doubles with Venus.

Does anyone expect Serena to win Wimbledon?  Absolutely not.  But the fact that she's back playing another Grand Slam as a 44-year-old mother of two after a three-year retirement truly is amazing.  And it'll make her first-round match against Maya Joint on Tuesday must-see TV.  Just looking ahead, too, she could face defending champion Iga Swiatek on the 4th of July.  Happy 250th indeed!

Swiatek being the defending Wimbledon champion, of course, is one of the craziest things.  She's the best clay court player of her era.  No one would've ever thought she'd win Wimbledon.  But she did (with a 6-0, 6-0 victory in the final).  Meanwhile, Aryna Sabalenka, whose game is perfectly suited to grass, has never even made the final.  She's lost in the semis in each of her last three appearances.  Although, this is also the first time she's playing at Wimbledon in an even year since 2018 (COVID, Belarusian players suspended, injury in 2020, 2022 & 2024).  Sabalenka hasn't played Wimbledon in back-to-back years since 2017-19, her first three seasons as a pro!  That stat means nothing.  It's just interesting.

Although, I'm actually more interested to see where Sabalenka's head is after her French Open meltdown.  After that match, she said she felt like quitting tennis.  I'm sure she was just being facetious in the moment, but that's what's happened to her in each of those Wimbledon failures.  She wins a long match, then runs out of gas in the semifinal and blows a lead. But I also have a feeling she'll come back with a vengeance after her disappointment at Roland Garros and just blitz the field for her first Wimbledon title.

French Open finalist Maja Chwalinska had an interesting path to Wimbledon too.  Wimbledon entries closed before the French Open and she was ranked too low to get direct entry.  Meanwhile, her French Open points got her into the top 25.  They gave her a wild card (which was the right call) and, since the seeds are based on the rankings, she ended up seeded.  I'd never seen a seeded wild card before!  I have now!

Sabalenka, Chwalinska and French Open champion Mirra Andreeva are all in the same quarter, which is easily the toughest of the four.  It also includes Naomi Osaka and top British player Emma Raducanu.  So, whoever comes out of there will be battle-tested for a semifinal, where there's a good chance an American will await.  Jessica Pegula, Coco Gauff and Iva Jovic are all seeded in that section.

On the Serena/Swiatek side of the draw is No. 2 seed Elena Rybakina.  She's a former Wimbledon champion, having won the title in 2022, and added a second Grand Slam title earlier this year in Australia, where she beat Sabalenka in the final.  Could we see another Sabalenka-Rybakina final here?  I don't think that would shock anybody.

This is the first time in quite a while where the pre-tournament talk heading into Wimbledon is more about the women and the men.  That's mostly because of Serena, of course, but it's also because Carlos Alcaraz is still out with an injury.  So, we won't get a repeat of those classic finals we've had in the past few years between Alcaraz and either Jannik Sinner or Novak Djokovic.  And, with Sinner and Djokovic on the same side of the draw, it guarantees we'll have somebody different as a finalist.

Second-seeded Alexander Zverev finally won his first Grand Slam title at the French Open.  He won't be following it up with a victory here.  Zverev, in fact, has never been to the second week of Wimbledon.  Although, now that he's finally a Grand Slam champion, we'll see if that changes.  It seems more likely, though, that one of the American contenders in the bottom half of the draw will have a chance at finally ending that long American Grand Slam drought.

Ben Shelton is the No. 4 seed and was a quarterfinalist last year.  It's definitely realistic to see him making a deep run.  Taylor Fritz did Shelton one better in 2025, reaching the semifinals.  Frances Tiafoe has, surprisingly, never been past the fourth round at Wimbledon.  I'm not really sure why since he's a regular at the tail end of the US Open and has a game that's suited to grass.  Will this be the year he breaks through?

Last year, Sinner was saved from sure defeat when Grigor Dimitrov retired up two sets in their fourth round match.  He took full advantage and went on to win the title, beating Djokovic in the semis and Alcaraz in the final.  When last we saw Sinner, however, he succumbed to the Paris heat in the second round of the French Open.  By all accounts, he's fine.  And the weather in London is famously not that.  So, there's no reason to think it'll have any lasting effects.

Then there's Novak Djokovic.  The quest for No. 25 continues.  And Wimbledon is still his best chance to get it.  You'd like his chances much better, however, if he weren't in Sinner's half of the bracket.  Especially with no Alcaraz.  Alas, he ended up having to face Sinner in the semifinal, should they both get there.  The one benefit of that, though, is that whoever makes it out should be favored in the final.

I know sticking with the chalk is boring, but, with the Wimbledon men's title, there's little reason not to.  Last year, Sinner became just the sixth different champion since Roger Federer began his run in 2003.  And those titles were limited to the Big Four (three of whom are retired) until Alcaraz.  And now he's been to three straight finals, a streak that obviously can't continue this year.  So, my point is, why pick anyone other than Sinner to lift the trophy on the men's side?

Which means, yes, my pick is Jannik Sinner to win his second straight Wimbledon title.  Zverev's victory in Paris broke up that streak of Sinner and Alcaraz trading off nine straight Grand Slam titles.  We may see a new streak start right away.  Because I'm not sure I see anyone beating Sinner, who actually hasn't won a Grand Slam since his victory here last year.  You know he wants to change that, too.