NFL Picks, Week 5

We saw the new overtime rule in effect on Sunday night in Dallas and Thursday night in LA, and we learned something about the rule that's worth keeping an eye on.  The discussion about whether it's better to play defense first under the new overtime format.  With the previous rules, you obviously wanted the ball.  There's definitely a strategic element to kicking off, especially since you know you'll get the ball and know exactly what you need to do.  It'll be worth seeing what teams decide over the remainder of the season.

Thursday Night: Rams (Loss)

Vikings (2-2) vs. Browns (1-3): Minnesota-After playing in Dublin, the Vikings make the short trip to London, where they'll become the first team ever to play back-to-back international games in different countries.  They actually played well against the Steelers, only losing by a field goal.  The Browns, meanwhile, followed up their upset of the Packers by getting their butts kicked in Detroit.  How will they fare in their third straight NFC North game?  I think the fact that Minnesota has been over there all week, which is a huge advantage, will end up making a big difference in this one.

Raiders (1-3) at Colts (3-1): Indianapolis-Well, the Mark Sanchez news sure added a layer of intrigue to this game, didn't it?  Honestly, did anyone even care about Raiders-Colts or know that he was originally scheduled to broadcast the game (or that it's on FOX) until the news broke?  Anyway, the Raiders are better than their record.  They've just run into some bad luck.  Unfortunately for them, I think it'll be more of the same and another close loss.

Giants (1-3) at Saints (0-4): Giants-With that gauntlet of a schedule, this originally looked like it would be the Giants' only chance to avoid an 0-9 start.  Then they went and upset the Chargers in Jaxson Dart's first start.  Now they've got a chance at being on a two-game winning streak.  The Saints, meanwhile, are also looking at this game as one of their few chances to win.  They'll have more opportunities, though.  The Giants don't have many more and need to take advantage of this one.

Cowboys (1-2-1) at Jets (0-4): Dallas-Dallas has played two home games, scored 40 points in both, went to overtime in both, and went 1-0-1.  In two road games, both losses, the Cowboys have scored a combined 34 points.  So, they're two completely different teams.  Maybe playing the Jets will fix their road woes.

Broncos (2-2) at Eagles (4-0): Philadelphia-Denver could easily be 4-0.  The Broncos' two losses have been by a combined four points.  So, the Eagles know they'll have a game on their hands.  But does anyone expect this to end any differently than any other Eagles game this season?  It'll be close.  They'll find a way to win.  And Denver will have three losses by less than 10 points combined.

Dolphins (1-3) at Panthers (1-3): Carolina-I'm not sure what to make of either of these teams.  The Marlins (sorry, Dolphins) finally put one in the win column last week, but it was against the Jets and they lost Tyreek Hill in the process.  Carolina, meanwhile, shuts out Atlanta, then gets thumped in New England.  I'm not sure how many answers we'll get in this one, but the Panthers are at home and I have no confidence in Miami without Tyreek, so Carolina is the pick.

Texans (1-3) at Ravens (1-3): Baltimore-Neither of these teams thought they'd be 1-4 after the first 1/3 of the season, but one of them will be.  Although, frankly, they're both seriously flawed.  And those flaws have been exposed.  Houston can't score and Baltimore can't stop anybody.  Still, when you consider how difficult the Ravens' schedule has been, it's a little more understandable.  They'll feel better about themselves after they beat the Texans.

Titans (0-4) at Cardinals (2-2): Arizona-Arizona is the best last-place team in football.  Every year, there's one division that's super tight and ultracompetitive, and this season, it looks like that'll be the NFC West.  Which means none of those four teams can afford to lose non-division games.  Especially at home against one of the worst teams in the league.

Buccaneers (3-1) at Seahawks (3-1): Seattle-This is the most fun matchup in the NFL so far this season.  The 1976 expansion teams celebrating their 50th anniversary seasons by wearing throwbacks to their original uniforms while playing each other.  Anytime we can see Bucco Bruce is a win.  Then you throw in the original Seahawks logo on top of that?  Yes please!  And they've got that awesome Seahawks-Mariners doubleheader within like an hour of each other, too!  How can I go against Seattle when they're giving us two really cool things on the same day?

Lions (3-1) at Bengals (2-2): Detroit-Week 1 was clearly just a blip on the radar for the Lions.  Because they've been excellent since.  That offense, especially, has really been clicking.  Cincinnati's offense, meanwhile, has not.  That team is lost without Joe Burrow, who isn't coming back this season.  Which means there will be a lot more performances just as painful as the one they put forward in Denver to look forward to.

Commanders (2-2) at Chargers (3-1): Chargers-Was last week a trap game for the Chargers?  They went into MetLife Stadium the heavy favorites, only to lose to the Giants.  I guess we'll find out as they return home to face Washington.  The Commanders also need to show they can win on the road.  They're 2-0 at home, 0-2 in road games.  Make that 0-3.  I'd like them if the game was in DC, but it's not.

Patriots (2-2) at Bills (4-0): Buffalo-All of those upsets last week left us with just two undefeated teams--Philadelphia and Buffalo.  Not that either one is a surprise.  Can the Bills make it 5-0 and extend their lead in the AFC East to three games after just five weeks?  They already have a win over Baltimore, too.  They could easily spend the second half of the season in cruise control and go after the No. 1 seed.

Chiefs (2-2) at Jaguars (3-1): Kansas City-The Kansas City Chiefs are back.  The game against Baltimore was the best they've played in a while, and that 0-2 start is quickly becoming a distant memory.  Jacksonville's no pushover, though.  The Jaguars really sent a message with that upset of the 49ers in San Francisco.  This may be the year in the cycle when Jacksonville is good.  Still, I think the Chiefs pull this one out.

This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 10-5-1
Overall: 45-19-1