America vs. Canada

Last year, the Dodgers' starting pitching in the postseason was so thin that they had to do a staff game in the World Series.  They won the series anyway.  This year, their rotation isn't only healthy, it carried them in the NLCS.  So, while last year they went into the World Series hoping their starting pitching would hold up, this year, it's been a strength.  And it's why nobody would be surprised if the Dodgers become the first repeat World Series champion in a quarter century.

They went into the season as the favorites to repeat, but there were definitely times when they didn't look like the Dodgers.  A baseball season is long, though, and the team they've been in October is very much the Dodgers.  They aren't just healthy, they're firing on all cylinders.  Just ask the Reds, Phillies and Brewers about that.  This is the team everyone expected them to be.  And they're playing like it.

As a result, the Dodgers are the first defending champions to get back to the World Series since the 2009 Phillies.  They're looking to do something that hasn't been done by a National League team in 50 years.  Not since the Big Red Machine in 1975-76.  Of the four major men's sports, baseball's the only one that hasn't had a repeat champion this century.  That very well may change within the next 10 days.  Because the Dodgers enter the World Series as favorites.

By "favorites," I, of course, mean the betting favorites.  Since they're the Dodgers and they're here for the sixth time in nine years, most of America has gotten sick of them.  Which means the Blue Jays, who already have all of Canada rooting for them, will be the favorite team for many fans on both sides of the border.  (Just to be clear, I am NOT one of those fans!)

Against the Yankees and Mariners, Toronto did the same thing it's done all season.  The Blue Jays refuse to get out, fouling off pitch after pitch before finally dropping it in for a single.  Then they get the big hit and suddenly they've put up a three-spot.  They're relentless, too.  There are no easy at-bats or easy innings.  And it's 1-9.  The bottom of the order sets the table, then Springer or Guerrero delivers.  And when they get the lead, they just keep adding on.  They're a very frustrating team to play against.

The question mark surrounding the Blue Jays is their bullpen.  In the ALCS, it managed to hold up well enough.  Although, the difference in their bullpen ERA between the four wins and the three losses was pretty staggering!  It shouldn't be a surprise, then, that Toronto relied on starters Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman out of the bullpen in Game 7 before turning it over to Jeff Hoffman, who's anything but automatic.  And they rely so much on Louis Vreeland and Mason Fluharty that there's a definite risk of those guys being overexposed...especially against a lineup as stacked as the Dodgers!

Which means that, much like it will be for the Dodgers, starting pitching will be a key for Toronto.  Since the bullpen is their biggest weakness, they need to get length from the starters.  It's no coincidence that when they got it in the ALCS, they won.  After seeing what the Dodgers did against Milwaukee, the Blue Jays' starters know they'll need to match that (assuming the Dodgers rotation does it again).  If they can't, this might be a short series.

One of the craziest stats about this World Series is how the Dodgers played an extra round, but have actually played fewer games during the postseason.  The Dodgers are 9-1 in the playoffs and have been just as dominant as their record indicates.  The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are 7-4 and coming off an intense seven-game ALCS where they never actually led in the series (they were down 2-0 and 3-2).  Although, they did win four out of the last five against Seattle and may have history on their side.  Every time one LCS was a sweep and the other went the distance, the team that went seven games won the World Series.

I wonder if part of that is the whole rest vs. rust factor that's always talked about while the No. 1 and 2 seeds are sitting around for a week waiting for the Division Series to start.  (Remember when that discussion was a whole thing the first few years of the current format?  Yeah, the No. 1 seed has won the AL pennant the last two years.)  Still, though, seven intense games with coast-to-coast travel has to take something out of you.  Fortunately for the Blue Jays, they didn't have to travel again and got to stay in Toronto after Game 7.

This World Series will be one dominated by stars.  People's biggest problem with the Dodgers is how they've built such a high-priced team, but the reason they're spending the money on those guys is for moments like this.  And Ohtani certainly delivered in Game 4 of the NLCS!  That was a performance unlike anything anyone has ever seen before.  Then there was Freddie Freeman with his home run-per-game in the World Series last year.  And Mookie Betts looking for his fourth World Series ring.  It's also funny how half of the Dodgers' postseason rotation pitched against them for Tampa Bay in the 2020 World Series.

Toronto, meanwhile, has George Springer, a proven postseason performer and the 2017 World Series MVP.  You just knew he'd do something when he came up in the seventh inning of Game 7, and he ended up hitting the Blue Jays' biggest home run since Joe Carter.  As well as their own superstar, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.  They came into the season with his pending free agency hanging over the organization.  His decision to sign a 15-year extension is what set this entire season in motion.  And he's been on the same otherworldly level as the Dodgers' stars during the month of October.

When the stars play like stars, it really can be a joy to watch (except when you really dislike one of the teams and badly want them to lose).  And with so many stars on both teams, all of whom have been doing their thing and then some, we could see something really special in this World Series!  After all, the best player in the game is literally leading off the World Series!

For all the stars on both teams, it could be the depth that makes a difference.  We've seen this with the Blue Jays throughout the playoffs.  It's impossible to get Ernie Clement or Addison Barger out, and every rally is started by Andres Gimenez!  Don't count out the Dodgers' role players, either, though.  Yes, they have Ohtani and Betts and Freddie, but how many times has Kike Hernandez authored a postseason moment during this run they've been on?

While the strength of each team is its lineup, I have a feeling it'll be the pitching that decides the series.  When Toronto's bats get going, it's a blowout.  When they don't, the Blue Jays are completely shut down.  That's what the Dodgers did to the Brewers.  The Blue Jays have much more thump and are deeper 1-9 than Milwaukee.  But the Dodgers' 1-9 is also deeper than Seattle's (the bottom half of the Mariners order did absolutely nothing in the ALCS).  That's why, ultimately, it'll come down to the pitching staff.

And the pitching is why I give the edge to the Dodgers.  The rotation's postseason ERA is microscopic!  The Brewers scored exactly one run in each game of the NLCS.  Will they hold the Blue Jays to one run per game?  Probably not.  But, as long as they can avoid those crooked numbers that Toronto loves to put up, they have the advantage.  Especially because the Dodgers have a better bullpen than the Blue Jays.  Toronto only uses the same handful of relievers.  The Dodgers' hitters will figure them out.  That's why their starters need to go deep into the game.

Having home field advantage is huge for the Blue Jays, who play so well at home.  I'd say stealing one of the first two games in Toronto is a key for the Dodgers, but the Mariners won both of the first two games and still lost the series!  Ultimately, it may be the Dodgers holding serve at home in the middle games that matters more.  If they can do that, they'll head back to Canada and finish off the series in Game 6.