The Upcoming Hall of Fame Conundrums

Now that the Baseball and Pro Football Hall of Fame induction ceremonies are both in the rearview mirror, it's time to start looking ahead to January and February, when the Classes of 2026 will be announced.  I'm curious to see how the voting will go in each.  Because both sports are heading into a very interesting few years...for completely opposite reasons.  Baseball doesn't have a clear-cut first-ballot Hall of Famer on the horizon.  Football has so many that it's going to create a logjam it'll take years to clear.

Let's start with baseball.  Ichiro was as clear-cut a first-ballot Hall of Famer as there can be.  The next one to hit the ballot is Albert Pujols in 2028, followed by Miguel Cabrera in 2029.  The next three ballots not only don't feature a clear-cut first-ballot candidate, there's a question of if anybody will get in on any of them.  While that scenario is unlikely, it does mean that we'll probably have smaller classes with guys who've been waiting a while coming up over the next few Hall of Fame elections.  

The Pro Football Hall of Fame, meanwhile, most decidedly does NOT have the same problem!  First-year eligible candidates for the Class of 2026 include Drew Brees, Larry Fitzgerald, Frank Gore, Phillip Rivers and Jason Witten.  That could be a Hall of Fame class right there.  (And, while coaches are a different category voted on separately, Bill Belichick is also eligible for the first time in 2026.)  Then you have Ben Roethlisberger, Rob Gronkowski and Adrian Peterson (among others) in 2027.  And, in 2028, two of the spots are already taken by first-ballot locks--J.J. Watt and some guy who played quarterback for the Patriots and won a bunch of Super Bowls.

Not all of those guys will get in on the first ballot.  And those who don't will then roll over into the next year, making those ballots even more loaded than they already will be.  Which means some of these players who otherwise would've been first-ballot locks will end up waiting multiple years before they finally get that knock on their door and give that speech while wearing their gold jacket.  Not to mention the backlog that already exists, and it's conceivable that there could be years where all 15 finalists eventually end up making the Hall of Fame.

Complicating matters even more in football is how they have a maximum class size, so they're already limited in the number of players who can be inducted in a given year.  And, as we saw this year, they changed the voting system and having the maximum number of inductees is no longer guaranteed.  So, if they don't have a maximum class, that increases the backlog even more.  Which is both good and bad.  Because, while some players will have an extra long wait, it does guarantee that we'll have some outstanding Pro Football Hall of Fame classes in the coming years.

This isn't the first time this has happened in baseball.  From 2010-13, a total of four players were voted in by the writers, including a shutout in 2013.  Then three players were elected on the first ballot in each of the next two years (five of the six were starting pitchers).  After the shutout in 2013, the writers elected a total of 22 players in the next eight classes before another shutout in 2021, then only one player voted in by the writers in both 2022 and 2023.  They've elected three in each of the last two years.  It might be three total over the next three.

Once we hit 2028, though, it'll again be an onslaught of first-ballot locks.  Yadi Molina could easily get in on the first ballot with his buddy Pujols.  Zack Greinke is also eligible for the first time in 2029.  And, let's not forget who else is coming up the pipeline pretty soon.  While they haven't retired yet, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw are all nearing the end of their careers.  If they all retire together, that'll be one outstanding Hall of Fame class!  (It's also possible they may be the last three starting pitchers elected to the Hall of Fame for quite a while.)

Going back to the years between the two times the writers didn't select anybody, those large classes could've easily been bigger.  Because Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Alex Rodriguez, Mark McGwire, etc., were all on those ballots, too.  The Steroid Era players created quite a backlog, especially because voters are limited to 10 selections.  That backlog only started clearing up after the Steroid Era players exhausted their eligibility.  Now, we're at the point where there's no longer a backlog.  The list of candidates simply isn't as strong.  Although, it also means that players who've been waiting a while stand a better chance of getting in.

In football, it's the exact opposite.  The list of finalists for the Hall of Fame will be so good that we'll see players waiting years who otherwise would've been first-ballot locks.  Take next year for example.  They're not putting in five first-ballot guys.  Fitzgerald will get in.  Brees probably will too.  The others may end up all having to wait.  How long is the question.  Because the candidates coming up behind them are equally strong.

Football's coming up on a backlog similar to the one baseball had when the Steroid Era guys were still on the ballot.  The next three years will be stacked.  In 2029, Aaron Donald joins the fray, but after that, it clears up a bit.  (If Aaron Rodgers retires after this season, he'll become eligible in 2031.)  Still, though, simply because of the quality of the field, some guys might not be getting in until then at the earliest.  And I'm talking about obvious sure-fire guys like Frank Gore and Ben Roethlisberger.  I haven't even mentioned the second-tier Hall of Fame-quality players like Andrew Whitworth, Luke Kuechly, Clay Matthews and Adam Vinatieri.  Plus all the guys who are already eligible and haven't gotten in yet. 

These stand to be loaded classes.  Football's maximum of five doesn't seem to be changing, so we're already guaranteed to see some otherwise first-ballot locks not get in on the first ballot.  Which is guaranteed to shock some of their supporters.  And, as much as I criticize the Pro Football Hall of Fame voters and the way the voting is conducted, I don't envy them and the task they have in front of them over the next few years.  Separating some of these candidates will be close to impossible.  And, I fear, will result in split votes.  Which will mean not enough reach the 80 percent required for election.  Which will mean we get classes that aren't the maximum.  Which will mean those quality candidates end up staying on the ballot for another year...when they'll be joined by a whole new group of quality candidates.  

Baseball's "softer" ballots coming up in the next few years, meanwhile, are good news for those borderline candidates who've been on the ballot for some time.  Things bode well for Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones to get over the 75 percent threshold.  You'd also have to think someone like Chase Utley may see his vote total shoot up dramatically.  Would they stand to make such a leap with an Ichiro or an Albert Pujols or a Miguel Cabrera on the ballot?  Seems doubtful.

Since the online tracker has become a regular part of the Baseball Hall of Fame election, people have wondered why/how writers can vote for a guy one year and not the next or start voting for someone after years of not voting for him.  This is why/how.  Because it's not about whether a player is a Hall of Famer or not.  It's about how they compare to the other candidates up for election that year.  Sometimes the quality of the field is so good that you have Hall of Famers with absolutely no chance at induction.

We had that in baseball for quite a few years.  Now, baseball's entering a lull while football's Hall of Fame voters will have an impossible task on their hands.  The quality of the Pro Football Hall of Fame candidates will be so good that they can't get it wrong.  Which all but guarantees someone will think they did.  All because somebody they thought should be a first-ballot lock will end up having to wait an extra year.  Or two.  Or three.