An All-New US Open

This year's US Open is full of change.  The mixed doubles tournament is already complete.  This year, they tried a new format with 16 teams (made up primarily of singles players) in a quick, two-day format.  Mary Joe Fernandez and the McEnroe brothers loved it.  They were praising the USTA for being innovative and predicted that we'll see it at the Australian Open in January (which we probably will since the Australian Open likes to copy the US Open).

I still consider it a slap in the face to mixed doubles.  Sure, they had the spotlight and a sold out Arthur Ashe Stadium for the final.  But it was also treated like somewhat of an afterthought--played before the tournament actually starts!  And recruiting the singles players to play with a $1 million prize (that they don't need) at the expense of doubles specialists (who very much do) was such an insult!  That's why I found it so satisfying that Sara Errani and Andrea Vavassori--two actual doubles players--won the title.

The other big change, of course, is the schedule.  The US Open has become the third Grand Slam to go to a Sunday start.  It doesn't really change much.  All it does is spread the first round over three days instead of two.  But, it also gives the USTA an opportunity to sell five extra sessions' worth of tickets (day and night on the two main stadiums, grounds passes on the outer courts).  So, it really shouldn't be surprising.  Expect the US Open overall attendance record to be broken.

On the men's side, there's a clear favorite in World No. 1 and defending champion Jannik Sinner.  He's the best hardcourt player in the world and has won four of the last seven Grand Slam tournaments.  Sinner is a five-hour epic French Open final loss away from going for a calendar-year Grand Slam.  Although, let's not pretend luck hasn't been on his side.  He was down two sets to Grigor Dimitrov at Wimbledon when Dimitrov got injured and had to retire.  We can only guess what would've happened had Dimitrov been able to finish, but Sinner obviously doesn't win the title if he loses that match.

Anyway, sometimes luck is on your side.  And I'm not taking anything away from him.  Because Sinner sailed in his final three matches.  Although, he's only played once since Wimbledon and had to retire in the final of Cincinnati, then withdrew from the mixed doubles tournament.  So, is Sinner completely healthy?  An injury may be the only thing that can neutralize him and give somebody else a chance.

Maybe it'll be one of the Americans.  John McEnroe made a bold prediction that this US Open could be where we see the 22-year drought end for the American men.  Taylor Fritz became the first since Andy Roddick to even make a Grand Slam final last year, and that momentum has carried into 2025, with at least two Americans reaching the quarterfinals at the previous three Grand Slam tournaments.  Ben Shelton (Australian) and Fritz (Wimbledon) have both been Grand Slam semifinalists this year.  Between those two, Frances Tiafoe and Tommy Paul, there's plenty of reason to be optimistic for a long run.  A title run, though?  That's a lot to expect.

Tiafoe, Fritz and Shelton are all in a loaded bottom half of the draw, along with Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz.  Former champion Daniil Medvedev and former finalist Casper Ruud reside on the bottom half of the draw, as well.  This is the section where the first round is split between Sunday and Monday, which works out well with all the big names.  And whoever comes out of this section will have earned it.

Joining Sinner on the top half of the bracket, meanwhile, is Alexander Zverev, who had that shocking first-round loss at Wimbledon.  He was a finalist in Australia this year, but he got thumped by Sinner.  That could be Zverev's problem here.  Unless there's an upset, he'll have to beat Sinner just to make the final.  That first career Grand Slam title we've been waiting for may have to wait.

If Sinner doesn't win, Alcaraz has to be the guy.  He's looking for redemption after that shocking second-round loss last year, but, don't forget, he won the title as a 19-year-old in 2022.  Djokovic, meanwhile, hasn't won a Slam since he tied the record with his 24th in 2023.  He's ceded the title of best hardcourt player in the world to Sinner.  Even he'd admit that.  And, you'd have to think his best chance to get No. 25 is at Wimbledon, not here.  But do you want to count Novak Djokovic out of any tournament?  There's a reason why he only plays the Grand Slams at this point in his career.

Meanwhile, it's been a very interesting Grand Slam season on the women's side.  Three different American women have made Grand Slam finals this year, with Madison Keys (Australian) and Coco Gauff (French) winning titles.  The final streak is actually at four with four different women, stretching back to Jessica Pegula a year ago.  Can that run possibly continue?  If it does, Emma Navarro could be a candidate as that fifth different finalist.

There are two other reasons why this year has been interesting for the women.  Iga Swiatek is a clay court star.  She was given no chance to win Wimbledon.  Not only did she win Wimbledon, she dominated!  She only lost two total games in the semifinal AND final, including a 6-0, 6-0 victory for the championship.  That was Swiatek's first title of the year and shot her back up to No. 2 in the world.  She already made the final here in mixed doubles and is definitely one of the top contenders.

Another of the top contenders is defending champion and World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka.  (Sidebar: How had I not seen or even known about the pictures of Sabalenka looking absolutely stunning in that red dress at last year's championship photo session until like two days ago?!)  Anyway, Sabalenka made the final at both the Australian and French Opens, losing to Keys and Gauff, then she lost to Amanda Anisimova (who had the match of her life!) in the Wimbledon semifinals.  So, she enters the US Open looking for her first Grand Slam title this year.  Like I said, this season has been funky!

Sabalenka's been fine as long as you keep the Americans away from her.  Unfortunately, there are so many Americans who figure to go deep in the draw that it'll be tough for her to avoid them all.  She could potentially face Pegula or Navarro in the semis, then Gauff or Keys in the final.  Although, Swiatek may be able to help her out there.  With the way Swiatek has been playing all summer, that's not a crazy thought.

While I'm tentatively labeling Swiatek as the "favorite" on the bottom half of the women's draw, it's very tentative.  Because the bottom half of the women's bracket is as loaded as the bottom half of the men's.  Four former US Open champions, Swiatek, Gauff, Naomi Osaka and Venus Williams, who it's so great to see back at the US Open, even if it for a farewell.  Plus, two other Grand Slam champions (Keys and Sofia Kenin) and two other Grand Slam finalists.  If the seeds hold, we could get a rematch of the Wimbledon final in the quarters.  We could also get a fourth-round matchup between Gauff and Osaka, with the winner set to potentially face Keys in the quarters (then Swiatek in the semis).  

That's where I think Sabalenka has an advantage.  Her draw is much easier.  It's not a cakewalk by any means.  But, I'd much rather be in the top half of the women's draw than the bottom half.  And that, I think, will pay dividends for Sabalenka later in the tournament.  While the heavy hitters on the bottom half are beating the crap out of each other, she can take advantage of her draw and save some bullets for the later rounds, where, if she's lucky, she won't lose to an American.

With the way this year has gone, it would be almost fitting to see the American women make it 4-for-4 in Grand Slam finals.  It is the US Open after all!  However, I'm not sure that's in the cards.  Like Sinner, Sabalenka is the best hardcourt player in the world.  She'll prove it by defending her title and avoid going all of 2025 without winning a Grand Slam.