The Penske 500

Why doesn't anybody find it weird that Roger Penske owns the IndyCar Series, the Indianapolis Motor Speedway, the Indianapolis 500 AND a three-car team?  At the very least, that's a massive conflict of interest.  What makes it even worse is how Penske's team has been caught violating the rules during Indy 500 qualifying two years in a row!  As a result, two of the Penske cars--Will Power and two-time defending champion Josef Newgarden will start from the rear of the field for the Greatest Spectacle In Racing.

It all started last Sunday in Fast Six qualifying.  Power and Newgarden's cars both failed pre-qualifying technical inspection and weren't allowed to make qualifying attempts.  They were initially placed 11th & 12th in the starting grid, but that was later adjusted to 32nd & 33rd.  The violation wasn't serious enough for Power and Newgarden to be removed from the field, so it was deemed that the appropriate penalty would be to have them start from the final two starting positions.  Which could end up playing a major role in the race since no one has ever won from the back row.

Anyway, the cause of the issue is that they were found to have made adjustments to the rear attenuator, which can theoretically give them an aerodynamic advantage.  IndyCar suspended both teams' race strategists and fined both, and Penkse responded in kind by firing the individuals involved.  But still, it's not a good look.  Especially since they found that Newgarden's winning car from last year had the same modification.

Helio Castroneves, who used to drive for Penske, jumped to his defense and explained that Penske is very meticulous about how he wants the cars to look.  So, it could've been simply for aesthetic purposes.  Others have suggested that even if it does give them an aerodynamic advantage, it's so slight that it's not enough to make a difference.  It certainly won't give you 3-4 mph.  But still, it's a violation of IndyCar rules...coming from the team of the guy who owns the entire series!

So, needless to say, it's already been an eventful Indy 500.  And this all happened before race day.  Although, it also gave FOX plenty of storylines leading into its maiden voyage covering the race.  FOX takes over from NBC, but won't be doing the 1,100-mile doubleheader since the Coca-Cola 600 is moving to Amazon this year as a part of NASCAR's new contract.  I was wondering how they'd cover both (especially if it rained at Indy), but, as it turns out, they're not, so that's not a concern.

And, fortunately, the situation with Power and Newgarden didn't overshadow those who were able to make their Fast Six qualifying runs.  Robert Shwartzman had the fastest car and will be the first rookie to start on the pole since 1983.  What makes that even more incredible is the fact that his team had no experience racing on an oval track prior to this!

Of course, running on an empty track and running in a full, 33-car field are completely different things.  We know Shwartzman's car is fast.  But how does it run in traffic and dirty air?  If the car handles as well during the race as it did in qualifying, Shwartzman could become the first rookie winner since Alexander Rossi in 2016.

Meanwhile, Newgarden turned in the fastest laps during the final practice session.  Which makes his failed inspection even more frustrating since the car is clearly fast even without the modification.  He'll need a lot of things to go right if he wants to pass essentially the entire field and make his way to the front, but if anyone can do it, Newgarden can.  And, if he does, he'll make Indy 500 history as the first driver to win three years in a row.

Also looking to make history is Castroneves, who'll be racing in his 25th consecutive Indy 500. He's one of four drivers all-time with four Indy 500 victories.  Nobody has won five.  Wouldn't that be some way to celebrate his anniversary at the Brickyard?  While I wouldn't consider him one of the favorites, nobody knows the track better than a guy who's finished either first or second seven times in his remarkable Indy career.

Castroneves also raced at the Daytona 500 for the first time this year.  So did Kyle Larson, who's attempting "Double Duty" for the second straight time.  Last year, he finished 18th and was named Indy 500 Rookie of the Year, but the race was delayed several hours by rain and he never made it to Charlotte.  The weather should be clear in both Indianapolis and Charlotte, so this year he should get that opportunity to actually make a go at running all 1,100 miles in both races.  (Although, I'm a bit torn since Tony Kanaan is scheduled to be Larson's replacement driver, if needed.)

Let's get back to the real race contenders, though.  Of which there are many.  Two-time champion Takuma Sato starts in the middle of Row 1 and was the only other driver to get over 374 mph in "Fast Six" qualifying.  He's only started in the front two rows twice before...in 2017 & 2020, the two years he won!

Pato O'Ward rounds out the front row.  He's finished second twice, including last year.  So, he's definitely a contender.  So is Alex Palou, who'll be starting right behind O'Ward on the outside of Row 2.  Palou is riding a streak of four straight top-nine finishes, highlighted by second place in 2021.  If he's there at the end, he's got a real shot at winning.

I'm also curious to see how Scott McLaughlin does.  He drives Penske's third car, but won't have to start in the back like his teammates.  However, that's because McLaughlin crashed in practice and didn't even get the chance to make a "Fast Six" qualifying attempt.  For a little bit, Row 4 was set to be all three Penske cars.  Now McLaughlin is there alone.  How much of an impact will that have?  And how good is the backup car that he'll be racing in?

Ultimately, it may not matter.  Because I think it'll be tough for anybody to crack those top six from qualifying.  They all just looked that much better than everybody else.  It obviously takes more than just being the best to kiss the bricks and drink the milk.  There's definitely some luck involved, too.  Alex Palou has the skill, has the speed and will get the luck.  He's my pick to win the 109th running of the Indianapolis 500.