A New-Look Roland Garros

This year's French Open will be different.  Rafael Nadal is retired.  That alone is big news.  There's actually some suspense about who'll win the men's title.  We don't have to just assume he'll steamroll everybody once again.  Although, that "King of Clay" title may have simply been passed on to defending champion Carlos Alcaraz, who figures to have a few more Coupes de Mousquetaires in his future.  It's not a guarantee, though.  That's the point here.

American fans will also watch the French Open somewhere new for the first time in forever.  NBC and Tennis Channel are out.  TNT is in.  Turner signed a 10-year deal with Roland Garros to be the exclusive partner, and their coverage will be similar to what ESPN does at the other three Grand Slams.  It's a big commitment, but I'm excited for it.  They've already announced several innovations they plan to use on the broadcasts that the French Tennis Federation has signed off on, so they won't be your typical tennis broadcasts.

TNT is also branding its broadcasts "Roland Garros," not "French Open," which really confused Charles Barkley!  I wonder if someone ever explained to Chuck that "Roland Garros" is actually the official name of the tournament.  He'd better get used to it, too.  Because it sure seems like TNT will continue to use the "Roland Garros" branding through the duration of the contract.  The French Open also stands to become one of their premier sports properties (along with March Madness and the NHL) once the Knicks-Pacers series ends and they no longer have the NBA.

Anyway, what will we see at Roland Garros on TNT?  It's actually fun to see a men's draw that's wide open after so many years of Nadal dominance.  Alcaraz is the defending champ, but he lost the Olympic gold medal match to Djokovic.  Iga Swiatek also won the French Open before losing a few weeks later at the Olympics last year.  She ended up taking bronze at the Paris Games, with Zheng Qinwen winning gold.  So, that's four champions at Roland Garros in 2024.

Alcaraz has to be considered the favorite on the men's side.  Not only is he the defending champion, he's the best clay-court player, and he won the two big warmup tournaments (Monte Carlo & Rome).  Plus, the three other big contenders for the title--Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev & Novak Djokovic--are all on the top half of the draw.  That's not to say Alcaraz will have an easy path to the final.  He'll still have to potentially deal with Casper Ruud and either Lorenzo Musetti or Holger Rune.  He just won't have to deal with any of the other three until the final.

Each of the last five Grand Slam tournaments has been won by either Alcaraz or Sinner (the new Federer & Nadal?).  Sinner's won the three hardcourt Slams, while Alcaraz took the two in Europe.  Sinner hasn't been without controversy, though.  He won the Australian Open, then sat out a three-month doping suspension.  He's only played one tournament since the suspension ended, making the final at the Italian Open, where he lost to Alcaraz.  Is that enough?  (He was obviously practicing during his suspension, but that's not the same as playing live matches.)

Then there's Alexander Zverev.  This guy has to win a Slam eventually, right?  He had a 2-1 lead in the final here last year, only to see Alcaraz come back to win in five.  Then he got rolled by Sinner in the Australian Open final.  He's got it in him, and this may be his best shot.  But can he beat Djokovic, Sinner and Alcaraz in a row?

Don't worry.  I didn't forget about Djokovic.  His Olympic gold medal is his only tour-level title since the start of 2024, and his 2025 hasn't been great.  At the Australian Open, he only made it through one set of his semifinal against Zverev before retiring.  He's still Novak Djokovic, so he's obviously still plenty capable.  I'm not sure he should be considered a "favorite" to the same degree as Alcaraz, Sinner and Zverev, though.

The same thing could be said about Iga Swiatek's 2025 season.  She hasn't won a title, got smacked by Coco Gauff in the Madrid final, and has dropped to No. 5 in the rankings.  Still, she's the three-time defending champion and has lost a grand total of one match here in the last five years.  So, Swiatek always has to be considered a threat to win.  Although, she'll have to get by her Achilles heel--Jelena Ostapenko to make it four straight.

Both Olympic finalists are also in the top half of the women's draw.  Part of what made Zheng's gold medal so interesting is that she's never been past the fourth round at the French Open, and that was in her 2022 debut.  Can she carry that Olympic success into a strong French Open performance?  Olympic silver medalist Donna Vekic, meanwhile, has also only made the fourth round once in her French Open--in 2019.  Her game suits clay courts, though, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Vekic make a run.

Aryna Sabalenka has established herself as the firm No. 1 player in the world mainly due to her prowess on hardcourts.  Sabalenka doesn't have that same comfort on clay, but she was a semifinalist here in 2023 and made the quarters last year.  I think it's a stretch to see her winning seven matches on clay.  If the draw works in her favor, though, I wouldn't be shocked to see her at least getting back to the quarters.

We've also got to talk about the American women.  There are three Americans in the Top 10, and they're all on the bottom half of the draw.  We've even got a great potential quarterfinal matchup between Australian Open champion Madison Keys and World No. 2 Coco Gauff, who many consider either the favorite or the second choice behind Swiatek.  Gauff has been to at least the quarters in each of the last four years, including a trip to the final in 2022.  And she won the doubles title here last year.

Rounding out the American trio is No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula.  Historically, the French Open has been her worst Slam--only one trip to the quarterfinals in five previous appearances.  So, out of the three, she's the one I'd consider a longshot.  Especially since Pegula could end up facing Paula Badosa in the quarterfinals, and Badosa is my sleeper pick.  She was a semifinalist in Australia and clay is her favorite surface.  I expect Badosa to go deep in the tournament.  Does that mean I think she'll win?  She certainly could!

In fact, I actually think Badosa will make it to the final.  She'll beat Keys, who knocks off Gauff in an outstanding quarterfinal.  On the top half of the draw, it really all depends on if Swiatek can finally beat Ostapenko for the first time in her career.  If she can, I have her not only getting to the final, but winning it for the fourth straight year.  If not, that opens up the entire top half for a Zheng, Sabalenka, Vekic or Jasmine Paolini to sneak in.

As for the men, the top half will be quite a battle between Sinner, Zverev and Djokovic.  Even though he's No. 1, Sinner feels like he has something to prove.  So does Zverev.  He wants to drop that "best player to never win a Slam" tag very badly.  I think he's got a chance to do it here.  Meanwhile, with Alcaraz's draw, I'll be shocked if he isn't in the final.

I said at the top that I think this year's tournament will be wide open.  On both the men's and women's side.  I still feel that way.  Although, wide open tournament or not, the favorites are still the favorites, and they're the favorites for a reason.  Carlos Alcaraz and Iga Swiatek are the defending champions.  It's their title until somebody takes it from them.  I'm not sure anybody will.