Surprises So Far

We're about two weeks away from the midway point of the MLB season.  And, I've gotta admit, a lot of what we've seen this season has been surprising.  Not the A's being horrible.  We all knew that would happen!  This bad?  Maybe not.  But we knew they wouldn't be any good either way.  Not the entire AL Central being worse than the entire AL East.  Again, something we all probably could've seen coming.

There have been surprise teams on both ends of the spectrum.  The teams that would be in the playoffs right now certainly aren't those you'd expect.  Of course, we're still a long way away.  The Atlanta Braves were 55-55 in early August two years ago.  They finished 33-18 and won the World Series.  So, there's a lot of season left, and a lot can still happen.

Which is why I'm not overly concerned about the teams that have underachieved so far.  I can easily see one of them still making a run.  Especially if they address their needs at the trade deadline.  Likewise, the teams that have exceeded expectations so far are one key injury away from being completely out of contention.  But that doesn't change what's happened over the season's first 10 weeks. 

Here are the teams that have been the biggest surprises in 2023, five good, five bad.  Can the surprisingly good teams keep it up?  And can those whose 2023 season hasn't quite gone as expected yet turn it around?  If not, do they become sellers at the deadline?

Pleasant Surprises
Los Angeles Dodgers: This was supposed to be the season in which the Dodgers' long run of NL West supremacy was challenged.  They lost a bunch of free agents, didn't really sign anybody, and the Padres loaded up.  It was supposed to be San Diego's turn.  Instead, the Dodgers have gotten major contributions from unheralded players both on the mound and at the plate.  As a result, they're sitting in second place (behind surprising Arizona) and a wild card position.

Miami Marlins: Maybe some of that South Florida mojo has carried over to the Marlins.  Because in a division that includes three playoff teams from last season, all of whom made moves to get better (with varying degrees of success), the best anyone had Miami pegged was fourth place.  But here they are, eight games over .500 and in second place, ahead of both the Phillies and Mets.  They've also got Luis Arraez chasing .400, which sure looks like it could go on all season.

Tampa Bay Rays: It sure seems like the Rays win every single night, doesn't it?  Their home record, especially, is insane!  And they're threatening to turn the best division in baseball--the AL East--into a runaway.  Although, this is the exact same thing they seem to do every year, so maybe we shouldn't be surprised that the Rays are doing it yet again.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Where did the Diamondbacks come from?!  If somebody other than the Dodgers was gonna lead the NL West, it was surely gonna be San Diego, right?  Nope!  It's Arizona that doesn't just have the NL West lead.  The Diamondbacks have the best record in the National League and the second-best in all of baseball.  This despite the fact that likely the only people who can name anybody on the 26-man roster are hardcore Diamondbacks fans.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Pittsburgh is usually the team that the contenders raid at the trade deadline.  It sure seemed like that would be the case again this year.  Closer David Bednar would almost certainly be shipped out of town in late July.  Now?  Maybe not.  A great start by the Pirates coupled with terrible starts by some other NL Central clubs (*cough* Cardinals *cough*) has Pittsburgh in first place.  That doesn't seem likely to last, but the Pirates can absolutely stick around in the wild card race.

Unpleasant Surprises
St. Louis Cardinals: I can't remember a season when the Cardinals were ever this many games under .500!  Especially in a year when they were supposed to be good!  I really don't get it.  The Cardinals are ubertalented and have of the top three vote-getters in last season's MVP race (Nolan Arenado and winner Paul Goldschmidt).  Instead, they're a last-place team with the worst record in the National League.  For a team that, again, was supposed to run away with the division.

New York Mets: Steve Cohen pays an awful lot of money for the Mets to not be the Mets, but that's exactly what they've been so far this year.  Despite their high payroll, the Mets can't get out of their own way and have had their share of injuries (as usual).  They've got so much talent that it's easy to see them turning it around.  But, in the NL East, it's also conceivable that they don't just miss the playoffs, they struggle to hang around .500.

New York Yankees: The best laid plans of mice and men...  Entering the season, the Yankees knew exactly what their team looked like on paper.  That team is yet to take the field, as injuries and inconsistency have once again plagued the Yankees so far this year.  They were in last place (albeit with a winning record) earlier in the season, much to Yankees haters' delight, and the fact that they're still winning games despite the team they've been putting out there is actually impressive.  This isn't where anybody wanted to be, though.  And it doesn't look like the Rays will be letting anyone close the gap.

Chicago White Sox: Maybe I just think the White Sox are better than they actually are.  Because this is the second straight year they've significantly underachieved after winning the division in 2021.  And the fact that they play in the AL Central, where the team that ultimately wins the division will probably be hovering around the .500 mark, there's really no excuse for either the White Sox or Guardians to not be making this a race.  If they get hot and go on a run, though, they can make the division race a blowout in their favor.

San Diego Padres: After last year's run to the NLCS, signing Xander Bogaerts to a massive contract, and the Dodgers losing some key players, this season was supposed to be the Padres' chance.  And it very well still might be.  So far it hasn't been, though.  San Diego has been a huge disappointment, sitting below .500 more than 60 games in.  They've got the talent and can easily go on a run when/if everybody's healthy.  Will that be too late, though?