Gotta Keep So Cal

In a move that was very unsurprising, San Diego State has informed the Mountain West of their intent to leave the conference at the end of the 2023-24 academic year.  Which, not coincidentally, is the year UCLA & USC will leave the Pac-12 for the Big Ten and Texas & Oklahoma will go from the Big 12 to the SEC.  The interesting thing about San Diego State's move, though, is that they haven't received an invitation to join another conference, yet they sent the paperwork to the Mountain West anyway.

Does that mean San Diego State will end up becoming an independent, if only temporarily?  Almost certainly not.  They're the hottest commodity of any school not currently in a Power 5 conference and the Pac-12 and Big 12 are reportedly both interested in adding the Aztecs.  So, it might just be a matter of where they end up going.

The Pac-12 has been adamant about the fact that San Diego State has not received an offer to join the conference (at least not yet).  Although, the reason for that could simply be the Pac-12 waiting to get its new TV deal done first.  Either that or the Pac-12 potentially losing another member (Colorado back to the Big 12), which San Diego State would then, presumably, replace.

While San Diego State going to the Pac-12 is still the most logical thing, the fact that the conference is waiting (for whatever reason) is dumb.  Because not only does everyone know San Diego State is the perfect fit, it's been rumored for so long that everybody's just assuming it's a done deal.  Which is why waiting is stupid.  Because the Big 12 could easily set its sights on becoming a 16-team superconference itself and steal San Diego State from right under the Pac-12's noses.

Losing San Diego State to the Big 12 because they dragged their feet would be the worst possible outcome for the Pac-12.  Not as bad as UCLA & USC leaving, but pretty close.  Because, frankly, the Pac-12 needs San Diego State more than San Diego State needs them.

Los Angeles isn't just the second-biggest city in the country, it's also by far the largest media market on the West Coast.  Come 2024, the only Power 5 conference based on the West Coast won't have a school in that market.  San Diego, while not as big as LA, is still a major market in Southern California.  And they can't not have a team in Southern California!

I'm not just looking at it from the obvious TV perspective, although that can't be ignored.  Not having a team in LA (let alone two) is a huge loss.  Replacing it with San Diego is at least another major market in the same footprint.  San Diego is two hours from LA.  That's nothing!  Especially since Pac-12 teams fly everywhere anyway!  Beyond that, though, there aren't many major markets left on the West Coast that aren't already represented by a Pac-12 school.

More importantly, Southern California is a hotbed for high school sports.  Always has been, always will be.  The Pac-12 needs San Diego State to keep that recruiting foothold in an incredibly fertile area!  And, seriously, how bad would it look if a conference that has "Pacific" as part of its name is getting out-recruited on the Pacific Coast simply because of a lack of presence?  Especially if San Diego State ends up going to the Big 12 instead, which would give both the Big 12 and Big Ten a presence in what should be the Pac-12's backyard!  That applies to all sports, but especially football, which we all know is the money-maker that drives all of these decisions.

Now let's look at it from a competitive standpoint.  San Diego State is more than capable of holding its own in the Pac-12.  It was less than three months ago that their men's basketball team played in the National Championship Game, after all.  And they just built a 30,000-seat stadium for a football team that went 12-2 two seasons ago. 

It's not an exaggeration to say San Diego State has the strongest all-around athletic program in the Mountain West.  All the more reason for the Pac-12 to seek them out as a UCLA/USC replacement.  And, if they were smart, they'd strike while the irons are hot.  Because somebody's gonna swoop up San Diego State, and the Pac-12 can't let that be another conference.

Frankly, I don't know what they're waiting for!  I'd understand about wanting everything with the TV deal squared away if San Diego State didn't add to the Pac-12's value as a TV property!  Locking in the Aztecs, who, again, are strong in both of the two sports broadcasters care about (they also made the Super Regionals in softball) would figure to make the number the conference gets from a TV network increase.  Not to mention the fact that an 11th team would help make up for some of the lost game inventory that comes with UCLA and USC's departures.

San Diego State knows its value.  That's why they're trying to negotiate their Mountain West exit fee.  Their argument is actually a pretty good one, too.  They earned the Mountain West a lot of money with their run to the National Championship Game (this year's March Madness shares are estimated to be around $10 million each).  By leaving the conference, they won't see a penny of it.  

There's also some confusion about whether San Diego State actually withdrew from the Mountain West or not.  The conference took the school's letter as "We're leaving," while San Diego State insists it's simply "exploring its options."  They also asked for a one-month extension to the June 30 deadline that would increase their exit fee, citing "unforeseen delays involving other collegiate athletic conferences beyond our control."  (Translation: We're still waiting for the Pac-12 to invite us, but they haven't yet.)

Ultimately, San Diego State will end up leaving the Mountain West, most likely in the fall of 2024.  There are very few, if any, people who don't see that as inevitable...including those in the Mountain West.  The only question is Pac-12 or Big 12?  The answer should be obvious.  Which is why the Pac-12 needs to get it done before it's too late.