My 2022 NFL Picks (Week 16)

When the NFL made this week's schedule, they had no idea that the three games they scheduled for Christmas Day (and couldn't change) would end up being total duds!  The Rams were even worried that they'd be playing in a half-empty stadium.  With the Christmas Eve slate, though, they hit a home run!  Six of the seven current NFC playoff teams are playing each other!  I know that really was just dumb luck, but still, it worked out pretty well!

Thursday Night: Jacksonville (Win)

Bills (11-3) at Bears (3-11): Buffalo-It's gonna be COLD in Chicago, one of many games this week where you'll know they're playing outdoors in the middle of winter!  Unfortunately for the Bears, they won't be able to use the weather to their advantage.  Not when their opponent is another cold weather, outdoor team that happens to be really good!  The Bills win and wrap up the AFC East.

Saints (5-9) at Browns (6-8): Cleveland-There were four 6-8 teams in the AFC when this week started (Jacksonville is now 7-8).  Cleveland is in that group, which means the Browns still have a shot at the playoffs.  It's incredibly unlikely that they'll make it, but it's still possible.  Just like it's still possible the Saints can win the NFC South.  Again, that doesn't seem likely, but it theoretically can happen.  One of these teams will have its playoff bubble completely popped after this game.  Probably the Saints.

Texans (1-12-1) at Titans (7-7): Tennessee-What's going on with the Titans?  They had a 3.5-game lead five weeks ago, but if they lose to the one-win Texans, that lead will be completely gone and they'll technically be in second place behind Jacksonville.  And Houston sure hasn't looked like a one-win team over the last two games!  They almost beat the Cowboys and they took the Chiefs to overtime.  So, the Titans better be prepared.  What would be even better is if the pre-Week 11 Titans show up.

Seahawks (7-7) at Chiefs (11-3): Kansas City-Kansas City wrapped up its seventh straight AFC West title last week, but it wasn't easy.  They needed overtime against the Texans.  Now they return to Arrowhead for a matchup with the Seahawks.  The Chiefs have no room for a letup, though.  They lost to both the Bills and Bengals, so they need to keep winning and/or get some help if they don't want to be the 3-seed.  So, expect a big game from Mahomes and Co.

Giants (8-5-1) at Vikings (11-3): Minnesota-Now THAT was a comeback!  I was shocked the Vikings were down 33-0 at halftime last week, and I was just as shocked they managed to win in overtime.  That's the way Minnesota's season has gone, though.  The Vikings' point differential is just +2, yet they're eight games over .500!  They've obviously been winning close games (10 of their 11 wins are by single digits), and I don't think that'll change this week.

Bengals (10-4) at Patriots (7-7): Cincinnati-Don't look now, but the Cincinnati Bengals are starting to look like the team that went to the Super Bowl last season again!  They're in sole possession of first place for the first time this season, and they clinched their playoff spot when the Jets lost.  That one-game buffer is huge, too, since they lost the first game to the Ravens (they play in Week 18, almost certainly on Sunday night).  New England's playoff hopes, meanwhile, are dwindling by the day.  And the Patriots certainly don't deserve to make the playoffs after that stupidity at the end of the Raider game!

Lions (7-7) at Panthers (5-9): Detroit-Detroit isn't just one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now.  They're a team you want nothing do with if they do make the playoffs.  Carolina, believe it or not, still has a decent shot at the playoffs, too.  If the Panthers win out, they win the NFC South.  Which is more an indictment of that division than anything positive about Carolina.  Fortunately, we won't have to worry about the Panthers winning the division, since they won't beat the Lions.

Falcons (5-9) at Ravens (9-5): Baltimore-Heading into this week, there were 10 different playoff-clinching scenarios for the Ravens.  (That number's down to seven since three of them involved a Jets-Jaguars tie.)  They can't clinch outright, though.  All of them involve a win or tie and the results of other games.  More significantly, though, after that loss on Sunday, they now trail the Bengals in the division.  So, even though they may not clinch a playoff berth this week even if they win, it's still absolutely imperative that they do if they want that Week 18 game in Cincinnati to be for the division title.

Commanders (7-6-1) at 49ers (10-4): San Francisco-I'm not sure how the 49ers keep winning without a quarterback, but they do.  Is it really all because of their defense?  Anyway, while I still don't think they're at the same level as the Eagles or Cowboys (or even the Vikings), they'll be a tough out in the playoffs.  Washington's playoff life is hanging by a thread.  Fortunately, they have that tie to take them out of all the tiebreakers, but they only lead the Lions and Seahawks by a half-game for the 7-seed.  It's likely they'll no longer be the 7-seed come Christmas morning.

Eagles (13-1) at Cowboys (10-4): Philadelphia-Dallas still clinched a playoff spot even after losing to Jacksonville, but that was still a bad loss.  For multiple reasons.  Most significantly, the Cowboys' chances of winning the NFC East are now virtually nonexistent.  The Eagles, in fact, will clinch the No. 1 seed with two games to go if they win.  So, Dallas obviously needs the victory to prevent that from happening, but all they'd be doing then is delaying the inevitable.  Philadelphia ends the season with two straight home games, so if they hit the road again, it'll be a trip to Phoenix for the Super Bowl.

Raiders (6-8) at Steelers (6-8): Pittsburgh-Franco Harris dying the during the week before his number retirement and the Immaculate Reception 50th anniversary celebration really sucks!  Also, how is his number not retired already?!  Anyway, I like the idea of celebrating that game with a special Christmas Eve Saturday night showcase.  Of course, Saturday night in December in Pittsburgh would mean it'd be cold even without this bomb cyclone.  Kickoff temperature is supposed to be 14 degrees.  That's obviously a huge advantage for the Steelers, who probably won't be stupid enough to try 35 laterals at the end of a tie game!

Packers (6-8) at Dolphins (8-6): Miami-After three straight road losses (two on the West Coast and one in snowy Buffalo), the Dolphins finally return home.  Their playoff position, of course, has become a bit more precarious after those losses, but I think finally being back home will have a major impact.  What was funny at the end of the Monday night game was Joe and Troy talking about the Packers' playoff chances as if they actually still have a shot.  They don't.  And not only will they not make the playoffs, they'll finish with a losing record, which they'll clinch this week.

Broncos (4-10) at Rams (4-10): Rams-This was an intriguing matchup on paper when they made the schedule, so I can see why they wanted to feature the defending champs and a high-profile player in Russell Wilson on Christmas in front of a national audience.  But, considering how the season has gone for both teams, the NFL might have similar concerns about ratings against the NBA as the Rams are having about attendance.  Certainly not the showcase they were hoping for.  Both teams are bad, but the Rams at least know where the end zone is (I think), so they get the nod.

Buccaneers (6-8) at Cardinals (4-10): Tampa Bay-If the Bucs don't win out, we'll be guaranteed to have a sub-.500 NFC South "champion" (hosting an at-least 10-win wild card team in the first round of the playoffs).  Fortunately, Tampa winning out is a very realistic possibility.  They actually looked pretty good for a half against Cincinnati before deciding they wanted the Bengals to win.  Maybe they'll realize that their playoff chances suddenly aren't as good as they were even a few weeks ago and finally start to play like it.

Chargers (8-6) at Colts (4-9-1): Chargers-The Chargers earned back-to-back wins over good teams (Miami and Tennessee) and suddenly, their playoff chances look very promising.  Both of those victories were at home, though.  What they need now is a road win against the Fighting Jeff Saturdays.  If they get it, that will all but lock it up (since they're playing on Monday night, they'll know going in whether they can clinch this week or not).  As for the Colts, the fourth quarter in Dallas and the second half in Minnesota were about as rough as it can get, so let's see if they can put an entire game together!

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 131-92-2