My 2022 NFL Picks (Week 15)

It's the first of back-to-back Saturday NFL weeks.  Whenever Christmas is on a Sunday, they move the majority of the games to Christmas Eve, and this week we've got an NFL Network Saturday tripleheader as a warmup act.  That Saturday tripleheader is actually pretty good, too.  The Vikings can clinch the division in the early Saturday game, and the Bills can become the first AFC playoff team with a win on Saturday night.  Also, congratulations to the 49ers on winning the NFC West, the first division that's been clinched this season.

Thursday Night: San Francisco (Win)

Colts (4-8-1) at Vikings (10-3): Minnesota-Minnesota has plenty of wiggle room in the NFC North, so last week's loss shouldn't hurt the Vikings' chances of winning the division.  It all but guaranteed they won't get the 1-seed, though.  Now they're two games behind the Eagles with four to play, and two of their losses are to Philadelphia and Dallas.  So, they pretty much know they'll be playing at home on Wild Card Weekend.  That will be a virtual guarantee after they beat the Colts.

Ravens (9-4) at Browns (5-8): Baltimore-Our middle game on Saturday takes us to Cleveland, where the Browns have a chance to really throw a wrench into the AFC North race.  Baltimore and Cincinnati play each other in Week 18, so they'll have a chance to settle the division on the field.  The Browns can play the spoiler, though.  Which would be a fun consolation for a team that isn't gonna make the playoffs.  So, the Ravens need to be on guard.  Which they should be.  They remember what happened right around this time last year, after all.

Dolphins (8-5) at Bills (10-3): Buffalo-Miami just played back-to-back games in California, including a Sunday night game that they got home from at probably about 7 in the morning.  Now they have a quick turnaround for a Saturday night game in cold and snowy Buffalo.  Not exactly the easiest three-game road trip.  It's not like Buffalo in December as a solo road game would be any easier, but they've made it exponentially more difficult.  The Bills wrap up their playoff berth and move to the verge of the AFC East title.

Eagles (12-1) at Bears (3-10): Philadelphia-The Eagles are in, but they've got the Cowboys right on their tail, so they need to keep winning.  They also have more doubters than a 12-1 team probably should, but their offense has gone a long way towards answering some of those critics.  They've scored 40, 35 and 48 points in their last three games.  The Bears' problem is their offense, not their defense, so they may be able to hold the Eagles somewhat in check, though.  Not enough to prevent Philadelphia from going to 13-1, however.

Falcons (5-8) at Saints (4-9): Atlanta-As ridiculous as it sounds, the winner of this game is still very much alive in the NFC South.  It's even possible there could be a three-way tie at 6-8.  The Saints are the only team that can't be involved in that tie.  And that's because New Orleans is not good.  Don't get me wrong.  I'm not saying the Falcons are.  They're just less bad than the Saints.

Lions (6-7) at Jets (7-6): Detroit-Believe it or not, the Lions have very realistic playoff chances.  If they win out and go 10-7, they're probably in.  All four of those games are winnable, but three of them are on the road, starting with a visit to the Jets.  It was Detroit's first trip to MetLife Stadium that made us realize we needed to pay attention this team.  We'll really need to pay attention to them after they win there again and go to 7-7.

Steelers (5-8) at Panthers (5-8): Carolina-Don't look now, but Carolina has won two straight and is suddenly alive in the NFC South.  Things could get really interesting in the worst division in the league over the final three weeks, especially if the 5-8 Panthers can top the 5-8 Steelers.  Pittsburgh has shown flashes of the Steelers teams we've seen over the years, but is still a work-in-progress.  Carolina seems to have more of an identity.  The Panthers win a tight one.

Cowboys (10-3) at Jaguars (5-8): Dallas-There are two ways to look at the Cowboys' effort last week against the Texans.  On one hand, they didn't play well and almost lost to the worst team in the league.  On the other hand, they rallied and found a way to win, which is exactly what championship teams do.  And had they not pulled it out, they'd be in a very different situation.  As it is, they can get their playoff berth out of the way before next week's massive showdown with Philadelphia.

Chiefs (10-3) at Texans (1-11-1): Kansas City-All the Chiefs need to do to clinch their sixth straight AFC West title is beat the worst team in the league...a task that the Dallas Cowboys found out isn't as easy as it seems.  Still, though, you'd have to think Kansas City should be able to take care of the Texans.  They'll also know whether or not the Bills won, which is a huge advantage either way as they battle Buffalo for home field.

Cardinals (4-9) at Broncos (3-10): Denver-Watching Denver this season has been painful.  Just like it was painful watching the Kyler Murray-less Cardinals on Monday.  So, you combine those two things, and you have a game that will probably be excruciating!  It'll also probably be extremely low scoring.  Since the game's outdoors in Denver in December, I'll say it's the Broncos who win it.

Patriots (7-6) at Raiders (5-8): New England-All throughout last week's Monday night game, Joe and Troy kept saying how they didn't think the Patriots weren't a team capable of making a deep playoff run.  I've gotta admit, I agree with them.  But...New England very well could end up in the playoffs, a possibility that becomes even more realistic if they cap this Arizona-Las Vegas trip with a second win.

Titans (7-6) at Chargers (7-6): Tennessee-Last week, we saw the good Chargers.  We also saw the bad Titans.  As a result, these two go into this game with identical 7-6 records.  It's obviously a much bigger game for the Chargers, who are in a five-way wild card race, than the Titans, who will still be in first place regardless of what happens here.  I don't think they can be that bad two weeks in a row, though.  Which is why I'm taking Tennessee in this one.

Bengals (9-4) at Buccaneers (6-7): Cincinnati-Burrow vs. Brady for the first time, with their teams going in completely opposite directions.  The Bengals look very much like a team that could return to the Super Bowl.  Right now, they're probably the third-best team in the AFC behind Buffalo and Kansas City.  Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is clinging to the NFC South lead simply because of how horrendous the entire division has been (everybody's over .500 in both the AFC East and NFC East, while the entire NFC South is below .500).  Cincinnati needs the win here to keep pace with Baltimore.  It's sad that Tampa Bay can lose, drop to 6-8, and still hold the division lead with three games left.

Giants (7-5-1) at Commanders (7-5-1): Washington-This is perhaps the biggest game of the weekend.  Because of the tie two weeks ago, this is the tiebreaker, and whoever wins has the inside track at the playoffs.  And I've gotta say, it's advantage Commanders.  The Giants haven't won a division game all season and got their butts kicked by the Eagles last week.  Also, I'm not a fan of the back-to-back games against the same opponent...especially when one of the teams is coming off a bye and the other isn't!  It's a little quirk of the schedule that needs to be addressed moving forward.  Especially since there's absolutely no reason to play the same team in consecutive games anyway!

Rams (4-9) at Packers (5-8): Green Bay-When they made the schedule back in April, this looked like a phenomenal late-season Monday night matchup.  Aaron Rodgers against the defending champs.  Well, this season hasn't gone the way either the Packers or Rams would like, and instead a game that looked great on paper in the preseason turned into a dud.  I'm guessing the weather won't be nice.  And, yes, the Rams did win a playoff game in Green Bay a few years ago, but I don't trust this year's version of the Rams to win anywhere.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 8-5
Overall: 122-85-2