Women's World Cup Draw Review

How do you know the FIFA calendar is way off because of this super-late World Cup?  Because they already had the draw for the 2023 Women's World Cup...before they play the 2022 Men's World Cup!  In fact, I had no idea the draw was even happening until I saw the analysis of it on ESPN.  Of course, since the tournament's taking place in Australia and New Zealand, that means games will be early in the morning.  And the draw was early in the morning, too, so I likely would've missed it anyway even if I had known it was happening.

I'm also not a big fan of the placeholder spots for teams that haven't qualified yet.  For Qatar, it was a necessity because of how screwed up the qualifying calendar became.  But they were back for Australia/New Zealand.  Although, they were worse.  Because they're for the winners of the three qualifying tournaments--which all have teams from different confederations in them!  So it made a complete mess of the geographic avoidance principle. 

As a result, it's possible (though unlikely) that Vietnam and Thailand could be in the same group.  That should never happen for any confederation other than UEFA.  If they did what UEFA did for the Euro and had the playoff winners provisionally in one group, but able to move to another, I'd be a little more OK with it.  But frankly, I just think qualifying should be done before the draw.  Then it wouldn't be a problem.

This will also be the first Women's World Cup with 32 teams, which I have mixed feelings about.  There are too many good women's national teams, so they did need to expand from 24.  But are there 32 teams good enough to have a competitive-enough tournament that isn't watered down?  I guess we'll find out.

The expansion to 32 teams also means that more teams are seeded, although the other five seeded teams in the top pot along with the United States and the two co-hosts ended up being European, pushing Canada and Brazil (among others) into Pot 2.  That obviously makes Pot 2 stronger, but, again, you also ended up with some weaker teams in Pot 3 (and a really weak Pot 4).

So, unfortunately, I think the teams advancing to the round of 16 will be very predictable.  Because the groups do seem to be somewhat balanced.  Each group has two good teams, one decent team, and one team that will be in way over its head.

Group A: New Zealand, Norway, Philippines, Switzerland
New Zealand is the lowest ranked of the seeded teams, but they get the traditional spot in Group A as co-hosts.  Norway's No. 12 in the world, which actually makes them the best team in this group.  Switzerland's ranking is only one spot ahead of New Zealand's, so it could make for a very interesting race between those three for the two spots in the knockout round.

Group B: Australia, Ireland, Nigeria, Canada
Congratulations to Nigeria on escaping the USA-Sweden group!  Of course, they instead get a group with the co-hosts and the Olympic champions.  Australia and Canada will both be very hard to beat.  Also, great job by Ireland to qualify for the first time.  Tough group for them to get out of, though.

Group C: Spain, Costa Rica, Zambia, Japan
Probably the weakest group.  Zambia was the African qualifier for the Olympics last year and actually earned a point thanks to a 4-4 draw with China, but they also lost 10-3 to the Netherlands!  Playing Spain and Japan won't be any easier.  I'm actually a little surprised that Japan's ranking has dropped so much, but I still see those two easily qualifying.

Group D: England, Chile/Senegal/Haiti, Denmark, China
There's actually potential for this group to become interesting.  Chile and Senegal are both worthwhile teams.  I can see either one giving Denmark and/or China a game.  Denmark and China play each other in the first game, which will be huge for both of them, since the winner probably advances along with European champion England, who'll enter the tournament as one of the favorites.

Group E: United States, Vietnam, Netherlands, Portugal/Cameroon/Thailand
Poor Vietnam.  They get to be the Asian opponent that's completely overmatched by the USA in its opening game.  Hopefully the Americans at least act like they've ever scored a goal before in their lives this time!  We came thisclose to having the rematch of the 2019 final between the United States and the Netherlands in the first game.  Instead, it'll be the second game.  (Also, this is the first time the U.S. isn't in a group with Sweden since 1999.)

Group F: France, Jamaica, Brazil, Chinese Taipei/Paraguay/Papua New Guinea/Panama
See what I mean about the TBA spots for the teams in the qualifying tournament?  It's possible to have both Brazil and Paraguay OR both Jamaica and Panama in this group.  Although, frankly, whoever comes out of that qualifying tournament doesn't really matter.  They don't have a chance against France and Brazil.  Neither does Jamaica.

Group G: Sweden, South Africa, Italy, Argentina
Sweden has absolutely no competition here.  Italy's No. 14 in the world and Argentina is No. 29.  South Africa, meanwhile, is No. 54.  The Italians are by far the best of those three, but Sweden definitely has a very favorable draw.  It's not too bad for Italy, either.  Although, second place in this group probably gets Germany in the round of 16, so maybe not.

Group H: Germany, Morocco, Colombia, South Korea
Morocco is the first Arab team ever to qualify for the Women's World Cup, an outstanding achievement that will hopefully only help the game grow for young girls in other Arab nations.  Of course, opening the tournament against Germany won't be particularly fun.  That other opening game between Colombia and South Korea could be very interesting, though.  Colombia's the stronger team, but not by much, so that one could easily be like Denmark-China.

Of course, the group draw is only step one.  And the 32-team field should actually make for a stronger round of 16.  No third-place qualifiers hopefully also means that teams will be more aggressive since there's no benefit in settling for a draw.  (Likewise, there's less of a need to run up the score when your GD is only within your group.)

And I wonder if the bigger field, even if it'll lead to a few more blowouts, will actually make the later rounds of the tournament stronger.  Look at this year's Women's Euro.  All four semifinalists were fantastic!  So, if we get that as a result, I suppose I can get on board with 32 teams.