My 2022 NFL Picks (Week 7)

Something crazy happened when I went to make my pick in my survival pool this week.  I couldn't!  Then I went to the league page and saw the reason why.  I had already won the league!  After Week 6!  We were playing with three strikes, and everyone else had still been eliminated after only six games.  Crazy!

But then I thought about that and realized it probably shouldn't be all that surprising.  Because this season has been absolutely nuts so far!  Case in point, 12 of the 16 teams in the NFC have at least three losses.  Only the Eagles, Giants, Cowboys and Vikings have two or fewer (and the Giants' loss was to Dallas, while one of the Cowboys' losses was to Philadelphia).  Meanwhile, in the AFC, the Jets are currently a wild card, while the Patriots and Steelers are both in last place!  

And, frankly, I think things will only get crazier.  At this rate, we're looking at a 10-7 division winner and probably a few 9-8 wild card teams.  Unless things start to settle out, which, based on the first six weeks, doesn't seem too likely...

Thursday Night: Arizona (Win)

Falcons (3-3) at Bengals (3-3): Cincinnati-How is Atlanta tied for first?  That's a serious question.  Because the Falcons are not very good!  But they're somehow finding ways to win games.  And with Tampa Bay struggling out of the gate, here we are.  The Bengals, meanwhile, still aren't back to last year's form, but they're getting there.  They'll creep over .500 for the first time this season.

Lions (1-4) at Cowboys (4-2): Dallas-Dallas went 4-1 without Dak Prescott.  Now they get him back, which will only make them that much better.  Keep in mind, both of the Cowboys' losses were on Sunday Night Football, so as long as it's not Sunday night, they're in good shape.  It's also crazy that they have the third-best record in the NFC but would be the 6-seed if the playoffs started today!  The NFC East is the NFC Beast once again.  So they need to keep winning the non-division games to have any chance of moving up.

Colts (3-2-1) at Titans (3-2): Tennessee-This is a weird one.  Tennessee is in first place in the AFC South, but that's only because the Titans had their bye last week.  The Colts are a half-game back because of their tie, further proof that ties can both help you and hurt you.  Things will be a lot clearer after their first head-to-head meeting.  Tennessee will either lead by a game-and-a-half or it'll be Indy with the game-and-a-half advantage (I think; throwing a bye in makes this even more confusing!).  Anyway, go with Option A.  The 4-2 Titans leading by 1.5 games.

Packers (3-3) at Commanders (2-4): Green Bay-Good news Packers fans!  They don't have to play another New York team the rest of the season!  I'm not sure what to take away from those two games.  Are the Giants and Jets better than people thought?  Are the Packers worse?  Is it a little bit of both?  If they fall in Washington and make it three straight, I think we'll know the answer.

Buccaneers (3-3) at Panthers (1-5): Tampa Bay-Tampa Bay is one of the many teams in the NFL that confuses me.  The Bucs should be running away with the NFC South, which, frankly, is one of the weakest divisions in football, better than only the AFC South.  Instead they're 3-3 after some just confounding losses.  Losing to Kansas City isn't bad, but they gave up 41 points in that game!  Meanwhile, their offense was completely stifled by both the Packers and Steelers.  They can't possibly lose to Carolina.  Can they?

Giants (5-1) at Jaguars (2-4): Giants-Say what you want about the Giants and whether or not they're actually good.  The fact remains.  They're 5-1 and have a very soft schedule over the next few weeks.  Jaguars, Seahawks, Texans, Lions before the game in Dallas on Thanksgiving.  Will they win all four?  Probably not.  (I think they lose next week in Seattle.)  Can they?  Of course!  Them losing this week would definitely be a surprise.

Browns (2-4) at Ravens (3-3): Baltimore-Once all the dust settles, the AFC North will probably come down to Baltimore and Cincinnati.  So, of course, after the Ravens win the first matchup with the Bengals, they go into MetLife Stadium and lose to the Giants!  But now they're back home and taking on a weaker opponent in Cleveland.  The Browns' early momentum has faded.  Baltimore should win this one pretty handily.

Jets (4-2) at Broncos (2-4): Jets-I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been confused/frustrated about the fact that four of Denver's first six games were in prime time!  (And they've got another one next week, sort of, when they play the Jaguars in London!)  It's not like they've been a team that's worthy of prime time, either, unless you're entertained by a team with a complete inability to score!  Fortunately, most of America (but not those of us in New York!) gets a break from that anemic offense.  Sidebar: I can't believe I'm actually picking the Jets on the road!

Texans (1-3-1) at Raiders (1-4): Las Vegas-Neither one of these teams lost last week!  Unfortunately, one of them will this week.  They both have only one win, but their records are actually very different.  The Raiders have had some bad luck and are probably better than 1-4.  The Texans, meanwhile, are not.  They might be the worst team in the league.

Seahawks (3-3) at Chargers (4-2): Chargers-The Chargers came perilously close to putting their playoff chances in jeopardy last week.  And it really would've been all of their own making.  As it is, they managed to pull out that Broncos game to get to 4-2 and put themselves in a much better position (which would've made losing so much worse, since they knew the Bills beat the Chiefs).  A win this week to make them 5-2 makes that position even better.

Chiefs (4-2) at 49ers (3-3): Kansas City-FOX is really playing up the tight end factor in its promos for America's Game of the Week.  Kelce vs. Kittle with Olsen in the booth.  What I'm curious about with this game is how Christian McCaffrey's 49ers debut will go.  Is he the missing piece that offense needed?  Regardless, I don't see them beating a Chiefs team that's better than them.

Steelers (2-4) at Dolphins (3-3): Pittsburgh-Yes, I'm going out on a bit of a limb by picking Pittsburgh, especially when the Steelers have looked downright awful most of the season.  But let me explain.  It's a pick less about the Steelers than it is about the Dolphins.  Miami started 3-0, but is 0-3 since Tua's concussion.  They haven't shown much of an ability to win without their quarterback.  So, I'm taking the Steelers as a result.

Bears (2-4) at Patriots (3-3): New England-Take everything I said about the Broncos and apply it to the Chicago Bears.  I literally have no idea why this team is on national TV so much (especially in games where they don't play the Packers).  As it is, New England is starting to get back on track.  This would be three straight for the Patriots after a 1-3 start.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 7-7
Overall: 52-42-1