Saturday, March 12, 2022

Joe Men's Bracket 2022

This is the two-year anniversary of COVID taking over our lives.  It's also the two-year anniversary of all the conference tournaments stopping in the middle and the NCAA cancelling March Madness.  Fortunately, that's not the case in 2022.  In fact, this is the first time in three years that we'll have an NCAA Tournament that looks and feels like the NCAA Tournament we all know and love.

Yes, that's right.  For the first time since 2019, we've got a true, nationwide NCAA Tournament.  Last year's event in a bubble environment in Indianapolis was necessary, and it's impressive how they pulled it off.  There was definitely something missing about it, though.  And that's back this year!  We'll have all the pageantry.  The bands, the cheerleaders, the crazy student sections.  It's all back!

The NCAA also went to a 68-team women's tournament this year and moved the women's selection show from Monday to Sunday.  As a result, I've got to do my men's bracket further in advance so that I can still do women's projections before that bracket's announced.  So, knowing that things are very likely to change between now and then, here's my current NCAA men's bracket...

WEST (San Francisco)
Portland: 1-Gonzaga (1) vs. 16-Texas A&M-Corpus Christi/Alcorn State, 8-Creighton vs. 9-Iowa State
Portland: 4-UCLA vs. 13-New Mexico State, 5-Houston vs. 12-Indiana/Xavier
San Diego: 3-Texas Tech vs. 14-Montana State, 6-LSU vs. 11-Rutgers
Indianapolis: 2-Purdue vs. 15-Delaware, 7-Alabama vs. 10-San Diego State

EAST (Philadelphia)
Greenville: 1-Duke (4) vs. 16-Bryant/Jacksonville State, 8-TCU vs. 9-Marquette
Buffalo: 4-Arkansas vs. 13-Akron, 5-Iowa vs. 12-Loyola Chicago
Pittsburgh: 3-Villanova vs. 14-Colgate, 6-Ohio State vs. 11-Texas A&M/San Francisco
Indianapolis: 2-Kentucky vs. 15-Saint Peter's, 7-Murray State vs. 10-Virginia Tech

MIDWEST (Chicago)
Fort Worth: 1-Kansas (2) vs. 16-Wright State, 8-Boise State vs. 9-Notre Dame
Buffalo: 4-Providence vs. 13-Vermont, 5-USC vs. 12-South Dakota State
Milwaukee: 3-Wisconsin vs. 14-Longwood, 6-Saint Mary's vs. 11-Wake Forest
Greenville: 2-Auburn vs. 15-Georgia State, 7-Colorado State vs. 10-Seton Hall

SOUTH (San Antonio)
San Diego: 1-Arizona (3) vs. 16-Norfolk State, 8-North Carolina vs. 9-Memphis
Milwaukee: 4-Illinois vs. 13-Princeton, 5-Texas vs. 12-Chattanooga
Pittsburgh: 3-Tennessee vs. 14-UAB, 6-Connecticut vs. 11-Davidson
Fort Worth: 2-Baylor vs. 15-Cal State Fullerton, 7-Michigan State vs. 10-Miami

Final Four: West vs. East, Midwest vs. South

We've actually got a bit of a unique situation this year.  No one will argue that Gonzaga is the No. 1 overall seed or that Arizona is also a 1-seed.  This is the first time I can think of, though, where two obvious 1-seeds are both from the West.  Only one of them can go there, obviously, which will be Gonzaga based on its overall seeding.  Which means Arizona will be on the move.

Fortunately, Baylor's early loss in the Big 12 Tournament solved the problem of where to put Arizona.  Some still think Kansas and Baylor will both be No. 1s.  I don't.  But even if they are, Arizona will be ranked higher than Baylor, which means they get San Antonio and Baylor can move.  That is, if Baylor's a 1-seed of course.

I, however, have Arizona and Baylor both going to San Antonio, with Baylor as the 2.  The fourth No. 1 I'm giving to Duke.  I honestly don't understand why Duke hasn't been in the discussion among the major bracketologists as a potential 1-seed.  I went into the week thinking the Big 12 would get one of the two available 1-seeds and the SEC would get the other.  So, what changed?  Well, Baylor and Auburn both lost in the quarterfinals of their respective conference tournaments, while Duke marched to the ACC final.  If Kentucky gets the 1-seed in the East over Duke, I wouldn't have any issue with that.  I just happen to think Duke is better than they're given credit for, even in a down year in the ACC.

Speaking of the ACC, I've seen a pretty solid five as the number of bids coming from the conference.  I've got them with six, though.  There are the four locks (Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Miami), but I think Virginia Tech and Wake Forest have both done enough to get in.

Same thing with Texas A&M and Indiana, although it's obviously close for both of them since I have them both going to Dayton.  I also have Xavier going to Dayton, but they're going the other way.  If any bid stealers emerge between now and the Selection Show, the Musketeers could very well be NIT-bound.  They should be rooting very hard for Davidson in the A-10 championship game.  Because the A-10 is surprisingly looking like a one-bid league this year...unless Davidson loses.  Because Davidson's in either way.

Most of the bracketologists have Michigan in, but I also have them in the NIT.  After they got their butts kicked by Indiana, I just can't justify it.  It's also close, but no cigar for SMU and Wyoming.  I thought about both of them, but I couldn't find a team to take out in order to put them in instead.

It's not just the A-10 looking at a surprisingly low number of bids.  I only have two coming out of the American and three from the Pac-12.  Overall, I've got just nine conferences earning multiple bids, led by the Big Ten's eight.

Bids by Conference: Big Ten 8, Big East 7, SEC 7, ACC 6, Mountain West 3, Pac-12 3, West Coast 3, American 2

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