For the second time in three years, my baseball preview has been thrown out of whack! Of course, in 2020 there was the pandemic and the 60-game season that didn't start until mid-July! Then last year was normal. Now, this season is starting a week late because of the stupid lockout. But, I guess I should just be happy there is a baseball season about to start. Which means, even if it is a little later than I'd like, it's time for my MLB season preview!
And, I'll admit, this is one of the hardest seasons to project that I can remember. The lockout didn't just screw everything up, it pushed the Hot Stove League back. It's quite possible that teams will still make moves between now and the start of the season, which could completely change projections. (And who knows how many Fernando Tatis Jr.-like unreported injury situations will arise.)
The extra wild card is obviously an intriguing new element, as well. What's it gonna take to get that third wild card spot? I think it'll probably be something in the 87-88 win range, but it could easily end up being more. Last season, the AL East had four 90-win teams! And that could easily happen again! In fact, I (and many others) wouldn't be surprised if all four AL East teams end up making the playoffs!
It's close between all four of them, but I give Boston the slight edge as the division favorite. I've got Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, but they really could finish in any order. And you know Tampa Bay will do the exact same thing they always do and probably end up winning the division. One thing I can say with some degree of certainty, though, is that the Orioles will likely finish last. As for positions 1-4? That's really anybody's guess!
1. Boston Red Sox: So why do I have Boston in the top spot? Simply put, they have the fewest question marks. If their starting pitching, particularly Chris Sale, can stay healthy, they're in good shape. Of course, the chances of Chris Sale staying healthy are slim. He'll start the season on the IL, and they haven't put a timetable on his return. So, starting pitching will definitely be a key to their success.
They certainly have the lineup to outslug you if they need to, though. And their offense could easily make up for any struggles the pitching staff has. Adding Trevor Story was unexpected, and it only made their lineup longer. I'm surprised Story was willing to move to second base, but he should handle himself fine on that side of the bag. Bringing Jackie Bradley Jr. back was a smart move, too. Especially since they no longer need to find a place for Kyle Schwarber to play!
Projected Lineup: Kike Hernandez-CF, Trevor Story-2B, J.D. Martinez-DH, Rafael Devers-3B, Xander Bogaerts-SS, Alex Verdugo-LF, Bobby Dalbec-1B, Christian Vazquez-C, Jackie Bradley Jr.-RF
Projected Rotation: Chris Sale*, Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill
Closer: Matt Barnes
Projected Record: 96-66
2. New York Yankees: Am I the only one confused by some of the moves the Yankees have made (and haven't made) since the lockout ended? They don't want Gleyber Torres playing shortstop. OK, fine. So they go and get a different shortstop who can't hit and still have their two starting second baseman problem. They trade Gary Sanchez and now have no starting catcher. Then, when they re-signed Anthony Rizzo and a Luke Voit trade was inevitable, instead of getting a catcher for him, they get...a case of baseballs?! (Just kidding, they got a prospect. But that's it. One prospect.)
Yet, despite all of their issues, they still end up battling for the division title every year. It should be no different this season. When you've got Gerrit Cole, you've got plenty of reason to feel like you're gonna win at least every fifth day. That's why they'll be right in the mix. The Yankees' pitching is incredibly underrated. Cole and the bullpen get all the attention, but the back end of the rotation is very strong. And, if the bats can stay healthy (which is always a big if regarding the Yankees), you know they'll hit. So, yes, even if they aren't the division favorites, a wild card berth seems likely.
Projected Lineup: DJ LeMahieu-2B, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Aaron Judge-RF, Joey Gallo-LF, Giancarlo Stanton-DH, Josh Donaldson-3B, Aaron Hicks-CF, Kyle Higashioka-C, Isiah Kiner-Falefa-SS
Projected Rotation: Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Luis Severino, Jordan Montgomery, Nestor Cortes
Closer: Aroldis Chapman
Projected Record: 93-69
3. Toronto Blue Jays: Having a better record than the team that won the World Series yet missing the playoffs has got to be frustrating! So has losing the Cy Young Award winner and a top five MVP finisher in free agency. So what did the Blue Jays do in response? They went out and added two starting pitchers, giving them one of the strongest 1-2-3's in baseball!
Let's not forget that they were one of the biggest beneficiaries of Oakland's fire sale, too. They swung a trade for Matt Chapman, one of the best third basemen in the game, and immediately signed him to an extension, giving them another big bat to go along with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez. Speaking of Vlad Jr., in another season, he's the runaway MVP. Can he carry his incredible 2021 into 2022? They also traded Rowdy Tellez and Randal Grichuk, which actually creates an opening at DH. Not that I'm upset to see Grichuk in the National League though!
Projected Lineup: Bo Bichette-SS, George Springer-CF, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.-1B, Matt Chapman-3B, Teoscar Hernandez-DH, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.-LF, Cavan Biggio-RF, Danny Jansen-C, Santiago Espinal-2B
Projected Rotation: Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi, Alek Manoah
Closer: Jordan Romano
Projected Record: 91-71
4. Tampa Bay Rays: How does Tampa Bay do it every year? Especially in this division?! They went to the World Series in 2020 and won 100 games last season. And they've got essentially the same team back, so doing it again wouldn't be a complete surprise. But, it also wouldn't be a surprise to see them finish fourth. After all, they went 18-1 against the Orioles last season, which was essentially the difference in the division. If they have anything resembling a normal record against Baltimore this year, that could bring them closer to the pack.
With the Rays, it usually comes down to their pitching. And that's definitely a concern. They have five actual starters this season, but there are questions about how many innings they'll be able to get out of their rotation. And, as good as their bullpen is, they can't ask their relievers to get 15-plus outs every night. It worked in 2020 because they only played 60 games, but the bullpen ran out of gas last season, which was especially evident against the Red Sox in the playoffs. Still, they're a consistent 90-win team that knows how to do what it takes in the AL East. Why would you expect this season to be any different?
Projected Lineup: Yandy Diaz-3B, Wander Franco-SS, Brandon Lowe-2B, Randy Arozarena-LF, Austin Meadows-DH, Ji-Man Choi-1B, Manuel Margot-RF, Kevin Kiermaier-CF, Mike Zunino-C
Projected Rotation: Corey Kluber, Ryan Yarbrough, Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Luis Patino
Closer: Pete Fairbanks
Projected Record: 89-73
5. Baltimore Orioles: Adley Rutschman's Major League debut should be sometime this season. The question is when? My original guess would've been sometime in June, but now that the 1st & 2nd place finishers in Rookie of the Year voting will automatically get a full year of service time, maybe it'll be May instead. Robinson Chirinos is keeping the seat warm for him in the interim, but, frankly, Rutschman's debut might be the only exciting thing to happen in Baltimore this season.
Although, I shouldn't be so quick to say that. Because the Orioles gave us two great stories last season. Trey Mancini's return from cancer and Cedric Mullins emerging as one of the best center fielders in the game. They're actually building a decent foundation. The problem is they play in the AL East and are completely overmatched against those other four teams. Not losing 100 is a reasonable goal. Whether it's achievable is a different question. That could really come down whether any of the young guys has a breakout season. That and how well the pitching staff behind John Means performs.
Projected Lineup: Cedric Mullins-CF, Jorge Mateo-SS, Trey Mancini-DH, Anthony Santander-RF, Ryan Mountcastle-1B, Austin Hays-LF, Robinson Chirinos-C, Kelvin Gutierrez-3B, Ramon Urias-2B
Projected Rotation: John Means, Jordan Lyles, Bruce Zimmermann, Zac Lowther, Tyler Wells
Closer: Dean Kremer
Projected Record: 56-106
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