Wait Until 2034

We're coming up on the 20th anniversary of the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City (scary, I know!).  That's still the most recent Olympics to take place in the United States, which will remain true until Los Angeles plays host to the Summer Games in 2028.  While it's still six-plus years until LA, the USOPC is already thinking ahead to the next Winter Games in the U.S.  The host city for those Winter Olympics, whenever they may be, has already been decided.  Salt Lake City.

Salt Lake 2002 was glorious.  It's the first (and, so far, only) Olympics I attended, so for that reason alone it will always be my favorite Winter Games.  But they were also arguably the best Winter Olympics ever (and I'm not the only one who thinks so).  It's also the place where all the U.S. winter training facilities are located.  So it would make complete sense that the USOPC would want Salt Lake City to host again.

In fact, there's some momentum for Salt Lake to jump right into the race for the next available Olympics in 2030.  Which I think would be a tremendous mistake.  They'd be much better off waiting until 2034.

Yes, there is precedent for two Olympics to take place in the same country in a relatively short amount of time.  The 2002 Salt Lake Games were just six years after the Summer Olympics in Atlanta, and there was only four years between the 1980 Winter Olympics in Lake Placid and the 1984 Summer Games in LA.  In fact, Lake Placid and LA hosted within a few months of each other way back in 1932.  (But that doesn't really count since the same country automatically hosted both in the early days of the Winter Olympics.)

Holding two Olympics in the same country 18 months apart in this day and age, though, is a completely different animal.  And, frankly, it would doom Salt Lake 2030.  Because, for many, it would be an afterthought until mid-August 2028.  Sure, they'd be able to build off the momentum of LA 2028 over that final year and a half.  But it would kill any chance to properly promote the Winter Games before then.

Think about it.  When the Tokyo Games were postponed, that meant NBC was going to promote them for an additional year and couldn't even start promoting Beijing 2022 until after the Paralympics ended in September.  I saw a survey the other day that said most people aren't even aware that there's another Olympics seven weeks from now.  I'm not surprised.  NBC had to delay its promotion by a year!  Meanwhile, had COVID not intervened, they would've started their Beijing 2022 marketing sometime around last February.  That's quite a difference!

It would be a similar situation here.  All of the focus would be on LA 2028 until those Games concluded.  And, don't forget, LA was awarded those Olympics in 2017.  That's 11 years!  We're talking about Salt Lake City getting a year and a half!  Sure, it's possible to promote both Games at the same time, but there's no question that the second one would get overshadowed.  Especially since, again, LA has such a head start.

There's also this little dilemma: Olympic sponsors are locked in for a four-year period that ends with the Summer Games.  So, it's quite possible that some of the sponsors in 2028 won't be sponsors in 2030 and vice versa.  But, even for those that will be on board as sponsors for both the 2028 and 2030 Olympics it, again, stands to reason that they won't promote both simultaneously.  Which, again, would mean LA first.

Likewise, the domestic marketing by the NOC (in this case, the USOPC) generally begins when they get the flag from the previous host at the Closing Ceremony of the preceding Olympics.  That's four years of heavy promotion within the host country.  The USOPC, however, would not be able to follow that timeline because of LA 2028.  Even Salt Lake-Utah Bid Committee Chairman Fraser Bullock has acknowledged that potential difficulty.

Another thing worth considering is how long it'll take for there to be another Olympics in the U.S. after hosting two in a row.  It was six years between Atlanta and Salt Lake, then 26 between Salt Lake and LA.  While it's unlikely there'll be a 32-year gap between Summer Olympics in the U.S. again, you'd still think that spreading them out would be a much smarter idea.  For both the USOPC and NBC.

If you wait until 2034 for another Salt Lake City bid, however, you have none of these problems.  Promotion still wouldn't start until after LA.  But instead of 18 months, it's six years of lead time!  Campaigns could be built specifically around Salt Lake 2034, and people would have more than enough time to get excited.  It wouldn't feel like they're sneaking up on anyone like they would in 2030 (and like Beijing 2022 does).

Fortunately, it's not entirely the USOPC's call.  The 2030 Games are the first Winter Olympics under the new selection process that saw Brisbane, Australia selected for 2032 without a formal bidding phase.  So, even if the USOPC and Salt Lake City express interest in hosting in 2030, it's ultimately the IOC's decision whether to move beyond dialogue or not.  And you can bet that those issues I brought up will be included in that dialogue.
 
The one thing working in Salt Lake City's favor is that by 2030, it will have been 20 years since a Winter Olympics in North America (Vancouver 2010).  Meanwhile, Europe and Asia will have each had two in the interim (with Asia's coming back-to-back).  So, they may be inclined to go with a return to either Salt Lake City or Vancouver for that reason alone.  Although, Sapporo, Japan, which hosted the 1972 Winter Games and the marathons at the Tokyo Games, is the rumored favorite (and the IOC may feel like they owe it to Japan after Tokyo had to go on spectator-less).

So, ultimately, it might be a non-issue.  The IOC may gently nudge Salt Lake City towards 2034 the same way they nudged Los Angeles from 2024 to 2028.  Which, frankly, they should.  Because that's the best option for everybody.