NHL In Beijing? I'm No Longer Optimistic

Maybe we shouldn't have gotten our hopes up.  Because we should've known that the thought of NHL players returning to the Olympics after not going in 2018 was too good to be true.  The NHL hasn't made it official yet, but it's just a matter of time until they announce that the players will, in fact, NOT be going to Beijing for the Olympics in February.

Unlike 2018, when it was pretty clear that the owners (who didn't want the players to go) would get their way, all signs pointed towards NHL participation in 2022.  It was so important to the players that they worked it into the CBA.  So, even though they didn't work out all of the details and make the formal announcement until the summer, everyone was working under the assumption there'd be an Olympic break built in to the 2022 schedule.

But...there was also an opt-out just in case either the owners or the NHLPA changed their minds.  Which turned out to be a good thing.  Of course, for a while, it looked like neither side would exercise the opt-out.  Each team even named the first three players to the roster.  Then players started waffling, the league had to start postponing games, and it became obvious that the NHL pulling out was inevitable.

There are, of course, several reasons for this.  And individual players opting out wasn't one of them.  That's something that was likely anticipated.  Between COVID concerns, not wanting to quarantine and/or live in another bubble after the 2020 playoffs, issues with China being the host, and a slew of other reasons, players had every right to decide not to play.  And there's enough depth in the NHL to still field a quality 23-player roster for each nation even with opt-outs.

Then the COVID outbreaks started.  Even though every player in the NHL but one is vaccinated, there were still breakthrough cases that made their way through locker rooms.  As a result, numerous teams had to play short-handed before the NHL shut those teams' facilities down entirely until the players were out of quarantine.  If it had been just one or two teams, that still might not have forced the issue.  But, as the number of teams with outbreaks grew, so did the number of games that had to be postponed.

That was before the omicron variant reared its ugly head and caused the league to cancel all cross-border travel until after the Christmas break.  The Christmas break which was then extended by two days.  A full-blown 2020-like complete season suspension isn't currently in the cards, but isn't off the table either.

A total of 49 games have been postponed as a result of COVID pauses.  That's enough to cause "material damage" to the schedule, which is one of reasons that would allow the NHL to exercise its half of the opt-out.  Although, at this point, there's so much hesitancy among the players that it seems likely the NHLPA will opt out even if the league doesn't.  There are simply too many unknowns for either side to feel comfortable.

They knew it was a risk to plan on a full 82-game season with an Olympic break while still trying to navigate the pandemic.  And, frankly, everyone deserves a lot of credit for trying to make it work.  It, unfortunately, no longer seems possible, however.

The NHL's Olympic break is scheduled to begin after the All-Star Game on Feb. 5 and last until Feb. 22.  (The gold medal game in Beijing is on Feb. 20.)  No Olympics would obviously mean the Olympic break is no longer necessary, and it would allow the league to use most of that period for make-up games.  Assuming the All-Star break lasts a few days, they could resume on Feb. 8 and have an extra two weeks available to them.

Do they need that entire two weeks to reschedule the 49 games that have been postponed?  For some teams, maybe not.  But the Islanders and Bruins sure do!  They've both only played 26 games so far.  And the Avalanche have only played 27.  Meanwhile, the Ducks have played 32 games!  So Anaheim's looking at getting a lot more off days during that span than the Islanders, Bruins and Avalanche are.  Regardless, they don't want a repeat of what happened last season, where Vancouver and Calgary were finishing the regular season while the American teams had already started the playoffs.

Cancelling the Olympic break gives them some extra flexibility in case any more games need to be postponed between now and then, too.  Who knows if every team will actually be able to get going right away when they return from the Christmas break on Sunday?  Who knows if cross-border travel will be possible?  (And what additional adjustments will need to be made if it isn't?)

My biggest concern regarding the NHL opting out was actually a series of questions.  Who will make up the rosters now?  Because those teams will have to be named pretty soon.  And, even though I'd assume the same GMs will do the picking, who'll do the coaching now that the NHL coaches who were supposed to lead the Olympic teams will no longer be available?  More importantly, will the players have enough time to prepare?

In 2018, everyone knew early enough that the NHL wasn't going and was able to plan accordingly.  Some guys went over to Europe for that reason.  This time, everyone was working under the assumption that it would be NHL players.  Suddenly, every nation will have to transition to European-based players, assuming they're willing to go and COVID hasn't interrupted those seasons in the same way.

All of that was likely part of the contingency plans that the IIHF, IOC and national teams hoped wouldn't be necessary.  Unfortunately, now it looks like they will be.  Because, while there's still a chance the NHL and NHLPA won't opt out of the Beijing Games, that chance is incredibly slim.  The NHL season is their priority.  Which is why we'll almost certainly have to wait until Milan-Cortina 2026 for the NHL's return to the Olympics.