So Obvious It Would Be Stupid Not To

This latest round of conference roulette that started with Texas and Oklahoma's pending move to the SEC and the Big 12's snagging BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati and Houston as replacements has now seen the American make its move, expanding by six members--all of which were previously part of Conference USA.  Then three other Conference USA schools--Southern Miss, Marshall and Old Dominion--announced that they were joining the Sun Belt (along with James Madison from the CAA), leaving Conference USA with just five members.

Frankly, I'm not sure Conference USA survives this.  Because I can see UTEP going to the Mountain West.  It would make a lot of sense both geographically and competitively.  And I've heard rumors about Western Kentucky and the MAC, which would also be a logical and smart move for both school and conference.  Simply put, unless Conference USA can convince a bunch of WAC and/or Summit League schools to move up from FCS to FBS, it's easier to see that league dissolving than expanding.

It's not just in FBS football conferences where there are rumblings about expansion, though.  And I wouldn't be surprised to see it in basketball-centric leagues, either.  After all, the West Coast Conference needs to replace BYU with somebody who can actually be competitive with Gonzaga.  But it's the possibility of expansion in the Big East that really intrigues me.

UConn rejoining the Big East this year brought the conference to 11 members.  You'd figure it's only a matter of time before they add one more to make it an even 12.  And that 12th member seems very, very obvious.  It's been obvious ever since the original Big East split into this current version and the American.  Saint Louis University.

Saint Louis checks all the boxes for the Big East.  Located in a major city?  Check!  Play in an NBA-sized arena?  Check!  Catholic school?  Check!  Basketball-centric athletic program?  Check!

And for Saint Louis, the Big East frankly makes a lot more sense than their current conference, the Atlantic 10.  They're the westernmost school in the A-10, and their closest conference opponent--Dayton--is more than 350 miles away.  The Big East, meanwhile, has teams in Chicago, Indianapolis, Milwaukee and Omaha--all of which are closer to St. Louis than Dayton.

That's actually one of the biggest arguments working in the Billikens' favor, too.  Adding Saint Louis would allow the Big East to go to a divisional alignment that's very logical and practical: an East Division with the six original Big East schools along the I-95 corridor (UConn, Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, Villanova, Georgetown), and a West Division with the six newer additions in the Midwest (Xavier, Butler, DePaul, Marquette, Creighton, Saint Louis).

There's even some speculation that the Big East wouldn't just stop at Saint Louis.  Dayton's the other one that gets mentioned often, and likely would've been a second addition had the Big East gone from 10 to 12 at some point.  The problem is there's really nobody else for Dayton to join the Big East with.  UMass and Temple may seem logical, but you'd have to wonder if UConn and Villanova would welcome another conference member in their home market.  VCU could be a possibility, but that's really the only other one.

Ever since its reorganization a decade ago, the Big East has been hesitant to expand for the sake of expansion.  While other conferences were expanding left and right, they stuck with the same 10 members until this year when UConn rejoined.  And had it been any school other than UConn, I'm not sure the Big East would've been willing to expand.  But now that they have, going to 12 would be only logical.

Which, again, brings us back to Saint Louis.  It really is the perfect fit, both for the school and the conference.  More importantly, it's logical.  It makes sense for the Big East to add a 12th member (which not only makes scheduling easier, but it adds more conference games for FS1 to air).  So does adding another major market, which is already within the conference's footprint.

Of course, the unique thing about the Big East is their status as a non-football conference.  All of the realignment in the other conferences is 100 percent about football.  That's not something the Big East has to worry about.  Which is why their membership was able to remain static at 10 members.  They also really like the double round robin basketball schedule, which they will continue to do even with the addition of UConn (everyone will play 20 conference games this season).  That's something they wouldn't be able to do with 12 teams.

So, even though conference realignment is going through another one of its cycles, the Big East is almost immune to all that craziness.  What the football conferences do has nothing to do with the Big East.  They're not losing members to other leagues and having to act frantically to find replacements (which they did brilliantly when they added Louisville and Cincinnati way back when).  They can and will expand when they want.  But they're also in no rush to add a 12th for the sake of having 12 instead of 11.

Likewise, this is all nothing more than speculation.  Who knows if Saint Louis would even be interested in leaving the Atlantic 10 for the Big East?  (Who am I kidding?  Of course they would be!)  They could be very content in the A-10 and pursuing the Big East may not even be on their radar, so this could all be a moot point.  (Although, I'm sure if the Big East reached out to Saint Louis, they'd listen.)

With that being said, however, I do think that the Big East will eventually add Saint Louis as its 12th member.  It might not be right away.  They may want to see how things shake out with the other conferences first.  But, when it comes time to renew the TV contract, the logical choice will be made.  Like the Big 12's recent additions, Saint Louis to the Big East makes too much sense to not happen.