Picking Football Games, Week 12

Seriously, what is going on with this league?!  Is anybody actually good?  It's Thanksgiving, and there are still way too many "good" teams suffering inexplicable upset losses to opponents they should handle pretty easily.  Although, last year after losing on Thanksgiving weekend, the Bucs were 7-5, and they didn't lose again.  So maybe somebody will separate themselves with still six games left!

Bears (3-7) at Lions (0-9-1): Detroit-Detroit has a great chance to get its first win of the season here.  But, hey, they aren't 0-10 entering the game!  And the Bears have Andy Dalton starting at QB, which makes you like the Lions' chances even more.  In fact, I like the Lions' chances so much that they're my pick here.  We already knew they can't go 0-17.  It'll be a Happy Thanksgiving in Detroit, when the Lions make sure they won't finish 0-16-1 either!

Raiders (5-5) at Cowboys (7-3): Dallas-Sunday's game aside, I still think the Cowboys are one of the best teams in football.  Yes, they got completely shut down by the Chiefs' defense, but that says more about Kansas City than Dallas.  Their Thanksgiving opponent is a Raiders team that hasn't won a game in a month.  Las Vegas has gone from first to last in the AFC West during its three-game losing streak.  It should reach four straight in a game that has the potential to get ugly.

Bills (6-4) at Saints (5-5): Buffalo-It took a while.  Probably longer than it should have.  But I'm finally jumpign off the Saints bandwagon.  This team looks nothing like the offensive juggernaut we've come to expect.  They were 5-2 and had a golden opportunity to seize control in the NFC South.  They've lost three straight since then and looked worse in each successive game.  The Bills haven't looked much better, and now have to deal with the Patriots.  But Buffalo has also shown an ability to bounce back after a bad week.

Steelers (5-4-1) at Bengals (6-4): Pittsburgh-When they met in Week 3, the Bengals won 24-10, and it wasn't even really that close.  It was Cincinnati's second straight win over Pittsburgh, so you know the Steelers won't be taking them lightly.  In fact, if the playoffs were to start today, Cincinnati would be in and Pittsburgh (thanks to that tie) would be out.  The Steelers can flip that with a win on Sunday.  Which is something they typically tend to do in that type of situation.

Buccaneers (7-3) at Colts (6-5): Tampa Bay-Don't look now, but Indianapolis is suddenly one of the most dangerous teams in the AFC.  They've put on two offensive clinics in the last three weeks!  Of course, the chances of putting on an offensive clinic against the Tampa Bay defense aren't that great (although, I'm not sure how much of Monday night was the Bucs and how much was the Giants' lack of offense).  One crazy stat about this game is the fact that Brady's 4-1 all-time against Indianapolis in the postseason.  That's obviously not at all relevant to this game.  It just seems like the Patriots and Colts met in the playoffs a lot more than five times!

Panthers (5-6) at Dolphins (4-7): Carolina-The Panthers win in Arizona, then return home and lose to Washington?  As I said, it's a confusing league!  Now they go to Miami to face a Dolphins team that's won two straight.  I think that streak comes to an end, though.  The Panthers go back and forth between showing us what they can be and laying eggs.  This week, I think they once again show us what they're made of.

Titans (8-3) at Patriots (7-4): Tennessee-Last week, I was worried that the Texans could end up being a trap game for Tennessee.  They win all those games in a row against teams that made the playoffs last season, then get a "break" with one of the worst teams in the league before traveling to New England.  Turns out, that's exactly what it was.  It didn't cost them their 1-seed since they're the only AFC team with eight wins, but another loss this week would.  The Patriots are on quite a roll right now, but I see the Titans righting the ship and playing like they did against all of their other strong opponents.

Eagles (5-6) at Giants (3-7): Philadelphia-Talk about two teams going in opposite directions.  Joe Judge threw everyone under the bus after yet another listless offensive performance by the Giants on Monday night, and it cost Jason Garrett his job.  (Judge should be following him out the door at the end of the season.)  The Eagles, meanwhile, have won three out of four and looked good in all of them.  And they'll be right smack in the middle of the playoff race after improving to 6-6.

Falcons (4-6) at Jaguars (2-8): Atlanta-Isn't it crazy how sometimes there are those weeks when all the good teams play each other and all the bad teams play each other at the same time?  After the New Orleans game, I wouldn't have necessarily categorized the Falcons as "bad."  But that was before they scored a grand total of three points combined against Dallas and New England!  Fortunately, their opponent this week is the Jaguars.  And if they can't score against Jacksonville, they've got bigger problems.

Jets (2-8) at Texans (2-8): Jets-Two Jets quarterbacks are in COVID protocols, so it's back to the top of the order and Zach Wilson.  The Texans, meanwhile, pulled off one of the shocks of the season by not just beating the Titans, but really outplaying them the entire game.  Now they square off, with the loser holding the edge for the No. 2 pick in the draft.  Just like last year when they randomly got two wins late in the season to cost them the No. 1 pick, it would be a very Jets thing to do for them to win here.

Chargers (6-4) at Broncos (5-5): Chargers-Just when we start losing faith in the Chargers, they go and have a performance like that one on Sunday night against the Steelers!  Maybe they are as good as we thought they were after all!  They're back in playoff position, and they'll actually technically take over first place with a win in Denver.

Rams (7-3) at Packers (8-3): Green Bay-Could this be a potential playoff preview?  In last season's playoffs, the Packers won 32-18, and they've generally dominated the Rams at Lambeau with Aaron Rodgers.  The Rams are approaching must-win territory since a loss would put them two full games behind Arizona, but Green Bay's thinking about the 1-seed, which is still very much there for the taking.  They'll go to 9-3 and make the Rams start thinking wild card.

Vikings (5-5) at 49ers (5-5): Minnesota-Vikings-49ers is suddenly a game that has a lot of relevance in the NFC playoff race.  Minnesota, which is much better than its record, finally jumped into a playoff spot after that big win over Green Bay (in one of the most entertaining games in the NFL this season).  San Francisco, meanwhile, is 3-1 since a four-game losing streak.  I have a feeling that there's only room for one of them in the playoffs.  Which means the winner of this game will have a huge advantage.  And I'd say that advantage will go to Minnesota.

Browns (6-5) at Ravens (7-3): Baltimore-Cleveland is the best last-place team in the NFL!  Which really speaks to the overall quality of the AFC North more than anything else.  The first-place Ravens are only a game and a half ahead of the Browns, and it could've been just a half-game had they not managed that late TD to beat the Bears last week!  But they did manage to win.  Which is what good teams do.  And they should again on Sunday night.

Seahawks (3-7) at Washington (4-6): Washington-You can't really blame the NFL for putting this one on a Monday night.  On paper, it wasn't a terrible matchup.  The Seahawks are always good and Washington made the playoffs last season.  Of course, the reality of the 2021 season is very different.  Seattle's having its worst year under Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson, Washington isn't good either, and they ended up with kind of a dud!  Well, that happens sometimes.  

Last Week: 8-7
Overall: 107-57-1