What's Next for the Big 12?

The Texas-and-Oklahoma-to-the-SEC news sure came out of nowhere, didn't it?!  But then again, we probably shouldn't have been surprised.  It's a case of the rich trying to get richer.  On both the schools' and the SEC's ends.  And, also not surprisingly, it's all about football.

With the push to expand the College Football Playoff to 12 teams--with an unlimited number of qualifiers per conference--the SEC already stood to get 4-5 teams into the playoff each season.  Now, by adding the only two marquee football programs left in the Big 12, it's very conceivable that half the field could be made up of SEC teams.  And with that comes more revenue for the SEC to split among its member schools.

Texas and Oklahoma aren't idiots.  They saw this potential windfall and it really was a no-brainer (kinda like when Syracuse left the Big East for the ACC).  Combine that with the prestige that comes with playing the top programs, as well as the better TV contract (resulting in more reasonable kickoff times), and they stand to benefit in much the same was as Texas A&M has since they joined the SEC.

Don't discount the TV element of this, either.  ESPN has shown its commitment to the SEC, not just with the SEC Network, but with a new $300 million deal that gives the network exclusive rights to conference football and basketball games starting in 2024.  The value of that deal is only going to increase with the addition of Texas and Oklahoma. 

It's also far better than anything the Big 12 was gonna get.  The Big 12 is the only Power 5 conference without its own network, and its deals with ESPN and FOX are also nowhere near as good as the other conferences'.  In addition to the 11 am local time football kickoffs, the ESPN part of their deal puts a lot of the Big 12's content on ESPN+.  So, while everybody else has stuff both on TV and online, you can only watch the Big 12 online (and only if you pay for the stream).  It's a clear sign of where they stand in the Power 5 pecking order.

Of course, when there was talk about Texas and Oklahoma joining the Pac-12 a few years ago, one of the reasons it didn't happen was because of the Longhorn Network.  Frankly, Texas having the Longhorn Network is one of the reasons the Big 12 survived that realignment.  So I'm curious what'll happen with the Longhorn Network.  I actually get it, so I can tell you it's more than just University of Texas sports, but will the SEC make them share the revenue from it with everybody else?  Or will it disappear and all the LHN programming simply merges into the SEC Network fold once they're officially a member?

I'm sure those questions will be answered over the next few years as all the details are worked out between the four parties (Texas, Oklahoma, the Big 12 and the SEC).  There are plenty of other questions that will be tackled between now and then, too.  Starting with "What will happen to the Big 12?"

When Texas A&M and Missouri left the Big 12, they did nothing.  They decided to simply stand pat at 10 teams.  They can't do that this time.  Not when it would leave them with eight, which will be half the membership of the SEC and ACC (if you include Notre Dame).  That's if the Big 12 survives at all, of course.  Because it's very conceivable that the Big Ten and Pac-12 could take this opportunity to expand themselves by plucking from the remaining Big 12 members.

We'll consider that scenario first.  With Texas and Oklahoma gone, the Big 12 has lost its two marquee football programs.  Which means the biggest commodity they've got left is Kansas and Baylor basketball.  The Big Ten and Kansas have flirted with each other before, so you know that if the Big Ten decides it wants to expand, Kansas basketball will be the No. 1 target.  (And I don't think any of them will be complaining about the easy win against the Kansas football team, either.)  Of course, the Jayhawks couldn't leave for the Big Ten alone, and West Virginia is an awfully attractive option that's much closer to Penn State, Ohio State and Maryland than any Big 12 schools.

So, in this scenario, I've got Kansas and West Virginia heading to the Big Ten, which would also bring them to 16.  That leaves just the Pac-12, which would need to add four members to have the same number as the other three.  Baylor and Oklahoma State would seem to be the obvious choices to join the Pac-12 in this case.  I'd imagine Texas Tech would also be part of the package, leaving Kansas State and Iowa State to fight for that other spot.

Those scenarios, obviously, would mean the end of the Big 12.  TCU would likely go back to the Mountain West in that case, while the remaining Kansas State/Iowa State school is left out in the cold (and possibly joining the American as their marquee program?).

I'm not sure this is the end of the Big 12, though.  In fact, I can see them expanding and maintaining their Power 5 status (albeit as the clear No. 5).  At the very least, they'd add two more to get back to 10.  (I can actually see them making a much larger push and going after four schools, but, for argument's sake, I'll limit it to two for now.)

Depending on how everything shakes out, I think Houston to the Big 12 will be a done deal.  There's been talk of that for several years.  Houston's always been the most likely candidate for any Big 12 expansion, and the Texas-Oklahoma news only makes it more likely.  A Big 12 without those two is obviously not as attractive as a Big 12 with them, but it's still an upgrade for Houston, which would also get to go back to playing its old Southwest Conference rivals instead of South Florida and Memphis.

However, I think the lack of Texas and Oklahoma means the Big 12 would no longer hold any appeal to BYU.  I've been pushing that one for a while, too.  But it no longer makes sense.  BYU would see the value in regular matchups with Texas and Oklahoma.  The value in regular matchups with Iowa State and TCU?  Not so much!  Especially when they can play whoever they want as an independent!

There is one school that so far has been passed over in all of the conference realignment, though.  And this could finally be their chance to get into a Power 5 league like they've wanted for so long!  That school is the University of Cincinnati.  It would benefit the Big 12 to get their good football team and their obviously marquee basketball program, plus they're in a major market.  It would also give them another school somewhat near West Virginia, which could go a long way towards keeping the Mountaineers in the fold.

Texas and Oklahoma leaving for the SEC is obviously a gut punch for the Big 12.  They're programs that can't be replaced.  And the questions about whether the conference will survive their loss are all legitimate.  But, adding Houston and Cincinnati would be a good first step towards ensuring that survival.