Not Golden, But Maybe Still Grand

I was hoping that this year's US Open would be the tiebreaker.  The three of them have each won 20 Grand Slam titles (that's 15 years worth of Grand Slams won by just three guys), and the US Open was going to be either where Federer regained the lead or Djokovic or Nadal finally pulled ahead.  But, alas, it won't be.  It'll be like last year's US Open instead...except incredibly different!

Last year, Djokovic was also the only member of the Big Three there, and he was the overwhelming favorite.  That's the case again in 2021.  Except this time, there's history on the line.  Novak won the Australian Open.  He won the French.  He won Wimbledon.  He's the first man to enter the US Open with a chance at a calendar year Grand Slam since Rod Laver in 1969.  And if he can pull it off, he'll be the first player, man or woman, to complete the Grand Slam since Steffi Graf's incredible 1988 season.

In 1988, Graf also won the Olympic gold medal, for the even more rare "Golden Slam."  Djokovic can't do that after losing in the semis in Tokyo.  He had a bit of a meltdown in the bronze medal match at the Olympics, and he withdrew from mixed doubles before even playing in the mixed doubles match. 

Some people think that his failing to medal in Tokyo will impact his quest for the Grand Slam in New York.  I don't.  The Golden Slam was obviously the goal, and he's obviously disappointed he won't win it.  But, don't forget what happened last year after the US Open default.  He went to Paris and made the final of the French Open.

It's also worth noting that the conditions in New York will be a lot different than the conditions in Tokyo.  It was incredibly hot.  So hot, in fact, that Daniil Medvedev feared for his health and they had to move matches later in the day.  Beyond that, though, the Olympic tournament featured matches every day, and he was playing mixed doubles, too, so he was playing two matches every day in that heat.  He's had a month off to recover since then and will only be playing one match every other day.  So I don't think playing in the Olympics will cause any sort of an issue.

Which doesn't mean the pressure's off at the US Open.  Not by a long shot.  Not with a double shot at history on the line.  Because Djokovic doesn't just have a chance to complete the first men's Grand Slam in 52 years.  And he doesn't just have a chance to become the all-time leader in Grand Slam titles on the men's side.  If he wins seven matches, he'll accomplish both incredible achievements at the same time!

And let's not forget what happened the last time we had this scenario in play at the US Open.  In 2015, Serena Williams won the first three Grand Slams of the year and was the three-time defending US Open champion.  She lost in the semifinals to Roberta Vinci.  Can Novak avoid the same fate?  Or will he finish the job?

Unfortunately for him, the two names he would most not want to see--Pablo Carreno Busta and Alexander Zverev are his potential semifinal opponents.  Weird crap happens every time he faces Carreno Busta--like last year's US Open default and this year's Olympic meltdown.  Zverev, meanwhile, is the man who beat him in Tokyo en route to the gold medal, the biggest title of his career so far.  Either one will give Novak all he can handle in the semi.  Which could actually be a good thing if he survives (just like in Paris, where he still had something left after that four-hour semi against Nadal to come back from two sets down against Tsitsipas in the final).

So, yeah, it's Djokovic vs. The Field.  Although, much like last year, The Field sees this as their opportunity to final win a Grand Slam title after the Big Three have monopolized them for so long.  That includes Zverev (who lost to Dominic Thiem in a fifth-set tiebreak in last year's final).  And Daniil Medvedev (who lost in five to Nadal in the 2019 final).  And Tsitsipas (who lost in five to Djokovic in the French Open final).  And Andrey Rublev (who won Olympic gold in mixed doubles).

On the women's side, there are two reigning US Open champions in the field.  Naomi Osaka, of course, is defending her 2020 title, while 2019 champion Bianca Andreescu returns after missing last year due to injury.  That was her first US Open appearance.  Which means she's never lost a match at the US Open in her career!

They've got to be the two favorites, but they're far from the only contenders for the title.  I'm curious to see how Belinda Bencic does in her first Grand Slam after winning gold in Tokyo.  Monica Puig has done nothing (and frequently been injured) since her unexpected Olympic triumph five years ago, but Bencic already had an established pedigree before winning Olympic gold.  In fact, she was a semifinalist in 2019, the last time she played the US Open.

Then there's Ashleigh Barty, the Wimbledon champion and world No. 1, who's never had much success at the US Open.  And how will Karolina Pliskova, a finalist here in 2016, follow up her Wimbledon final appearance?  Aryna Sabalenka made it to the semis at Wimbledon and also seems poised to make a run for her maiden Grand Slam title.  Elina Svitolina, meanwhile, won Olympic bronze.  None of those women has won the US Open before.

Let's not forget Vika Azarenka, either.  Last year, she had an incredible run in New York, winning "Cincinnati" before making her third career US Open final.  That launched her back to the top of the women's game.  She has to be seen as a factor.  Same with Simona Halep, who has a challenging draw with Svitolina in the round of 16 and Osaka in the quarters, but don't be surprised if she gives either of those a match.  Or pulls the "upset."

Of course, who's NOT here is also a notable story.  Because it's not just Roger and Rafa.  It's also Venus and Serena.  That's 70 combined Grand Slam titles, including 18 US Opens!  This is the first US Open without at least one Williams sister since 1996...which was the year before Arthur Ashe Stadium opened (and Steffi Graf won her last US Open title)!

There are some people who WILL be at this year's US Open, though.  The fans!  The fact that there was a tournament at all last year--especially at its regularly-scheduled time--was remarkable.  And, even without fans, it was an incredible atmosphere.  But it still wasn't the same.  So to have fans back, and not just fans, but at full capacity, means the US Open we know and love is back, too.

This is the first US Open of a new era in many ways.  With so many of the old guard missing, will the next generation finally get their chance to shine?  Or will the greatest player on the planet finish off the calendar-year Grand Slam and become the winningest man in Grand Slam tennis history?  Either way, what a story it'll be!