Swimming to Tokyo

In Tokyo, for the first time in 25 years, Michael Phelps won't be a member of the U.S. Olympic swimming team.  Although, while the Greatest Olympian of All-time may be retired, that doesn't mean the team will be lacking stars.  Not even close.  Caeleb Dressel stands to inherit that mantle and win a ton of medals.  But first, he needs to make the team.  Which he will.  In a ton of events.

Katie Ledecky will also likely add to her medal haul in Tokyo.  In fact, she'll have an extra opportunity to medal with the addition of her best event--the 1500 freestyle--to the women's Olympic program.  In the past, the women only swam the 800 at the Olympics and the men only swam the 1500.  Now both genders do both distances.

There's a third new event: the mixed medley relay.  The U.S. will be the gold medal favorite in that event, especially because they'll have gold medalists to choose from left and right.  My early guess is Ryan Murphy (Back), Lilly King (Breast), Caeleb Dressel (Fly) and Simone Manuel (Free).  Of course, that's assuming they all make the team.  Which shouldn't be a problem for any of them.

It's also worth noting that this team will look vastly different than it would've in 2020.  That's what happens when you have a team as good and as deep as USA Swimming.  Only the top two in each event at Trials go to Tokyo, but there are a lot more than two swimmers who could medal at the Olympics.  And those who might not have made the team last year have had an extra year of training.

They say that the pressure's greater at Trials than it is at the Olympics themselves.  Because once you get to the Olympics, the hard part is over.  You've already made the team.  It's the hardest team in the world to make for a reason.  Especially when it's only the top two who go.

As for the Trials themselves, USA Swimming has set them up so that the schedule is exactly the same as what it'll be in Tokyo.  The only difference is that the finals will be at night (unlike at the Olympics, which will have morning finals so that they're live in prime time here).  So, there'll be eight days of competition instead of nine.  Starting on Sunday.

So, who will be the stars over the next week in Omaha, as well as next month in Tokyo?  Again, I think Dressel, Ledecky and Manuel are safe bets.  NBC sure is expecting them to be.  Otherwise they wouldn't be featured in all of their Olympic marketing.  But they won't be the only ones. 

Lilly King and Ryan Murphy are 2016 gold medalists.  Nathan Adrian is also back, trying to make another Olympic team after overcoming testicular cancer.  Ryan Lochte is also trying to make another Olympic team as he tries to rebuild his reputation.  I don't know why they're hyping him up like he has a chance, though.  He'll be lucky to make the finals at Trials.

We're also likely to see some of the "next generation" Americans qualify to make their Olympic debut.  That includes 19-year-old Regan Smith, the world record-holder in both women's backstrokes.  On the men's side, the breakout star could be a fellow 19-year-old, University of Georgia freshman Luca Urlando. 

This is also an opportunity for a lot of men in their mid-20s to finally make a U.S. National Team in Phelps and Lochte's events.  And for them, it might be their last best shot.  Even though the next Olympic Trials are just three years away, that's a long time in swimming.  Especially when you consider junior swimmers who are only 15 or 16 now will just be hitting their primes as we get ready for Paris.

All of this is what makes the Olympic Swimming Trials so compelling.  There are so many stories to be told, but there are only two Olympic spots up for grabs.  These athletes have had to wait five years for this moment.  Representing the USA and winning medals at Worlds or Pan Pacs is nice, but they're not the Olympics.  Those meets aren't career-defining.  This one is.  Because this is the only one where you can say afterwards whether you're an Olympian or not.

Who will get the chance to say that?  Your guess is as good as mine.  But, for the record, here's who I think will make it in all 28 individual events, as well as the extras who'll be on the freestyle relay teams:

Men
50 Free: Caeleb Dressel, Ryan Held
100 Free: Caeleb Dressel, Zach Apple
200 Free: Andrew Seliskar, Kieran Smith
400 Free: Zane Grothe, Kieran Smith
800 Free: Jordan Wilimovsky, Zane Grothe
1500 Free: Bobby Finke, Zane Grothe
100 Back: Ryan Murphy, Shaine Casas
200 Back: Ryan Murphy, Austin Katz
100 Breast: Cody Miller, Nic Fink
200 Breast: Will Licon, Nic Fink
100 Fly: Caeleb Dressel, Maxime Rooney
200 Fly: Luca Urlando, Zach Harting
200 IM: Chase Kalisz, Carson Foster
400 IM: Jay Litherland, Chase Kalisz
4x100 Free Relay: Ryan Held, Blake Pieroni, Nathan Adrian, Maxime Rooney
4x200 Free Relay: Townley Haas, Blake Pieroni, Luca Urlando, Zach Apple

Women
50 Free: Simone Manuel, Claire Curzan
100 Free: Simone Manuel, Abbey Weitzel
200 Free: Katie Ledecky, Kate McLaughlin
400 Free: Katie Ledecky, Leah Smith
800 Free: Katie Ledecky, Leah Smith
1500 Free: Katie Ledecky, Ashley Twitchell
100 Back: Regan Smith, Kathleen Baker
200 Back: Kathleen Baker, Phoebe Bacon
100 Breast: Lilly King, Annie Lazor
200 Breast: Lilly King, Annie Lazor
100 Fly: Torri Huske, Kelsi Dahlia
200 Fly: Hali Flickinger, Katie Drabot
200 IM: Madisyn Cox, Kathleen Baker
400 IM: Melanie Margalis, Emma Weyant
4x100 Free Relay: Mallory Comerford, Torri Huske, Erika Brown, Claire Curzan
4x200 Free Relay: Allison Schmitt, Madisyn Cox, Leah Smith, Simone Manuel