Copa Europa 2020(1)

We've reached the first of the two major events that were postponed last year but kept their name to (a) confuse us all and (b) remind us that 2020 really sucked!  I'm, of course, talking about the Euro, which had some COVID-related logistical hiccups between its original date and now, but not nearly as many as Copa America!  Dublin lost its games because they can't have fans and Spain had to switch its host city for the same reason.  But the important thing is that the games will all have fans.  Which is huge on so many levels.

The one-year delay has also made this an incredibly difficult Euro to forecast, for a number of reasons.  For starters, no one has really played, so we have no basis for comparison between teams.  They've all had friendlies, but for many of these teams, their last competitive fixture was at the end of qualifying...in November 2019!  Then you throw in the condensed league schedules and you've got guys who've played a lot of soccer over the past year. 

Finally, the lack of a single host country is the biggest wild card.  No single team has the advantage of playing home games.  Because nine teams do!  Likewise, in groups that have two home teams, the other two teams have to play on the road twice.  And, as we've seen in qualifying, there's a big difference between playing at a neutral site and playing a true road game.

I'm also curious to see how much of an impact all the travel has.  I know what you're thinking.  "There's travel between games in every tournament."  That's true.  But travel's a lot easier in Group D, where you're playing in England and Scotland, than it is in Group A, where three of the four teams have to go back-and-forth between Italy and Azerbaijan, while Italy gets to stay in Rome the whole time.

But I guess all of this is the trade-off for the pan-European tournament, which was supposed to celebrate UEFA's 60th anniversary last year.  I give them credit for trying something different, but it's weird to have so many "host" countries.  I hope it doesn't lose that tournament feel, but I worry it might, since most of the top teams will be playing at home, just like in qualifying.

Another thing I'm curious to see play out is the third-place teams advancing.  In 2016, that made a huge difference.  Portugal played like crap in the group round, tying all three of their games.  But, thanks to third-place teams advancing, they made the round of 16, wound up on the side of the bracket that was much easier, and ended up winning the whole thing (against a France team that would win the World Cup two years later).  That scenario could easily end up playing out again.  Especially since Portugal, France and Germany are all in the same group!

Group A: Italy was given the honor of hosting the opening game, and you know they want to have a good showing after the embarrassment of not qualifying for the 2018 World Cup.  They shouldn't have a problem getting out of this group, especially since all of their games are in Rome.  Switzerland might give them a game and should also come out of the group in second place.  For some reason, I think Turkey beats Wales and is the bubble team out of Group A.

Group B: In Group B we've got Belgium, a team that is somehow ranked No. 1 the world.  I'm not gonna get into this again, but the FIFA rankings make no sense and Belgium is incredibly overrated!  Regardless, they'll have no trouble getting out of one of the weaker groups.  Denmark should join them.  And, that Belgium-Denmark game is in Copenhagen, so don't be surprised if the Danes win it.

Group C: Welcome to the party, North Macedonia!  Unfortunately, their chances of pulling an Iceland appear slim.  North Macedonia was the beneficiary of that idiotic new qualifying system where teams can get in through their Nations League performance (an attempt to validate the Nations League).  They're the weakest team in the tournament, though.  This is also, on paper, the weakest group.  The Netherlands, ranked No. 16 in the world and No. 11 in Europe, is the highest-ranked team in the group and playing all three matches in Amsterdam.  I'll take Ukraine as the second-place team.

Group D: This is one of the groups where I can see some crazy stuff happening.  England and Croatia play each other in the first game at Wembley Stadium on Sunday.  The winner has the inside track on being the group winner.  But they also both know that three teams will likely come out of this group, and Scotland's gonna be a tough out.

Group E: Spain is the best team in Group E by a wide margin.  The real story here is that, while they'll play at home, the others all have to travel to St. Petersburg for their other two games.  It's Poland who has the trip to Spain in the middle, but the good news for Poland is that (a) they're likely gonna lose to Spain anyway and (b) St. Petersburg is much closer to Poland than Dublin is, so they'll have plenty of fans at the other two games.  It'll come down to them and Sweden, but Sweden is also close to Russia, and they play Spain first, so they don't have to travel back-and-forth.  I think that'll make the difference when they play each other.  Sweden second, Poland third, both advance.

Group F: Every tournament has its "Group of Death," and there's no question this is it.  Somehow, you've got the World Cup Champions and the reigning European Champions, who are ranked second and fifth in the world, in the same group as Germany, another of the pre-tournament favorites, who'll be playing both of them at home.  Poor Hungary has no chance against these three heavyweights!  Those three will obviously all come out of this group, but I'm curious to see how it all plays out.  Germany's last game is against Hungary, so they'll know exactly what they need to do while the other two are facing each other in a rematch of the 2016 final.

So, here's who I've got advancing in first and second place: Italy, Switzerland, Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands, Ukraine, England, Croatia, Spain, Sweden, Germany, France.  Joining them in the round of 16 as the four best third-place teams will be: Turkey, Scotland, Poland, Portugal.

One of the things I hate about third-place teams advancing is how you don't completely know the bracket until you know all of the teams.  But, assuming the third-place teams come out of the groups I think they will, these would be the round of 16 matchups: Belgium-Poland, Italy-Ukraine, Germany-Turkey, Croatia-Sweden, Spain-Scotland, England-France, Netherlands-Portugal, Switzerland-Denmark.

My quarterfinals are: Belgium-Italy, Germany-Croatia, Spain-France, Portugal-Switzerland.  In the semifinals, I've got: Italy-Croatia and France-Portugal.  Then my UEFA Euro 2020(1) final is a rematch of the 2018 World Cup final three years later: Croatia vs. France.  And France will do exactly what it did in 2000 once again...follow up a World Cup title by winning the Euro.

And, for what it's worth, I've got Brazil in Copa America.  They were probably the favorites in that dysfunctional tournament before it changed host countries twice!  Now that it's being played in Brazil...on short notice...that gives them an even bigger advantage.  I'll say they beat rival Argentina in the final because, well, why not?