Are We Really Talking About 2032 Already?

It looks like the Olympics are headed back to Australia in 2032.  This isn't really a surprise.  The Queensland bid, centered around Brisbane, has been viewed as the favorite for a while, and now it's the "preferred bidder" that will enter a "targeted dialogue" with the IOC.  Which basically means they've already made up their minds and will be making the official announcement about Queensland 2032 at some point in the near future.

The 2032 Games are the first Olympics under the new bid process that was implemented in 2019.  Instead of the old bid process, where cities competed against each other in a multi-year process that IOC President Thomas Bach thought produced "too many losers," there's now a Host City Commission that meets with potential bidders and recommends a candidate to the full IOC.  They also removed the provision that a host city is chosen seven years in advance, basically leaving it open-ended.

But, if you're wondering "Why so early?," you're not alone.  The 2032 Olympics are 11 years away!  Yes, that the's same amount of time between the awarding of LA 2028 and the actual Games, but that was generally seen as a one-time exception so that they could do the historic double-awarding (it ended up working out, since the vote for 2028 would otherwise have been this year, when the IOC will be a little busy).  If 11 years is going to be the new standard, though, that changes everything for any city that might be thinking about it.

From the formation of a bid committee to the extinguishing of the flame, hosting the Olympics is a decade-long process.  At least it used to be.  Now, if they're going to award a Games more than 10 years out, you're looking at a process that may take 13-14 years from beginning to end.  That's a lot to ask for a city, country and National Olympic Committee, all of which will likely see at least one leadership change during that time.

Frankly, announcing Olympic host cities 11 years in advance is too far.  That's an extraordinary commitment.  And enthusiasm may be very different at the start and the end.  Just look at what's happening in Tokyo.  That bid actually enjoyed strong public support, which is rare to begin with, and that enthusiasm held even as the costs began to skyrocket.  But now, the support has waned so much that a majority of Japanese citizens would rather the Games be postponed again (which won't happen) or cancelled.

Speaking of Tokyo, that's another reason why it's way too premature to be awarding the 2032 Games.  There's no guarantee that the Olympics will be held this summer...through no fault of Tokyo's!  They could potentially end up spending eight years and billions of dollars preparing for an Olympics that never took place.  The 2032 Games are the next ones available, so there would be a lot of support for giving 2032 to Tokyo.  But you can't do that if they're already going to Brisbane!

Now, I don't think the IOC will actually make a formal announcement until this fall (after the Tokyo Games) at the earliest.  But that's not the point.  The point is the decision has basically already been made, which is leaving every other potential 2032 bidder out in the cold before the process even really got started!

Germany was considering a bid from the Rhine-Ruhr region, and Doha's been itching to host an Olympics forever.  There were also rumors for a joint Korean bid.  Those are just three of the other potential bidders.  This could've been a very competitive race.  Instead, it's over before it began.

While these bid cities are at various stages in the process, they're understandably not too happy that all their work will end up going for nothing.  The Germans are already crying foul because of the lack of transparency in the process.  They're especially unhappy since the head of the Host City Committee is John Coates, who just happens to be Australian!

None of this is meant as a knock on Queensland and the quality of its bid.  Quite the contrary, I think an Olympics in Queensland would be exceptional!  The 2018 Commonwealth Games on the Gold Coast were an incredible success, and the 2000 Olympics in Sydney are considered by many (myself included) to be the greatest ever!  So there's no question that the Aussies will do a great job, and they've been targeting Brisbane 2032 as their next Olympic bid for a while now.  But that's not the point either.

Awarding the 2032 Games now may give the IOC a sense of security.  They'll have their host cities for the next decade locked down, in three major countries on three different continents (and it would be five different continents in a row after Rio and Tokyo).  They'd also most likely pat themselves on the back for how "well" the new process worked in delivering a quality host.  In their eyes, it'll be the proof that the Host City Commission "works."

However, I think the IOC is doing themselves an incredible disservice.  I'm not completely opposed to the concept of a Host City Commission or the thought process behind it.  By going public with their preference for Queensland this early, though, they're limiting their options.  They're essentially telling other potential bidders not to bother...and one of those bids may have ended up being better than the one from Queensland!

They don't want cities to feel like "losers" by going through the whole process and spending all that money, only for another city to be chosen.  I get that.  But there's nothing wrong with engaging with multiple cities and advancing more than one to the dialogue stage.  You can still express a preference, but do it later down the line.  This would also give the "losing" city a chance to make changes and improve its bid for a future run (like Athens and PyeongChang both did with their winning bids).

Lastly, potential bidders are being completely shut out before they can even decide if they want to bid!  Budapest has become a go-to site for World Championships.  It seems likely that they'll host an Olympics eventually.  Budapest may have been waiting until after the 2023 World Athletics Championships to decide.  That still would've been plenty of time had the decision not been until 2025.  Ditto with Doha.  They've hosted the World Championships in swimming and track & field.  They've hosted the Asian Games.  Let's see how they do with the 2022 World Cup, though. 

That experience is key.  Rio was awarded the 2016 Games in 2009.  Their bid likely would not have won if the 2007 Pan Am Games in the city hadn't been the huge success they were.  (Granted, Queensland has that experience with the 2018 Commonwealth Games, but those other cities will be getting their experience in the coming years).

There's obviously a sense of comfort that comes with Queensland.  They feel safe with Australia and they want to capitalize on the support while it's still there.  And, after the success of Sydney, they're confident the Aussies will do a good job.  But the other potential bidders might've done a good job, too, and they're not even being given a chance.