Saturday, February 6, 2021

A Super Bowl Home Game

Because, of course!  Why wouldn't it be?  After the World Series, Stanley Cup Final and NBA Finals were all played at neutral sites, the Super Bowl, which is always played at a neutral site, was obviously going to be played on one of the teams' home fields.  It wouldn't be a reminder that this is the 2020 season we're talking about otherwise.

Although, we probably shouldn't be surprised.  The Bucs did go out and get Tom Brady, after all, so they obviously thought this was possible.  It's just that not many of the rest of us did.  Except for Romodamus, who said at the end of the Chiefs-Bucs regular season game that he could see them meeting again on the same field on Super Bowl Sunday.  (It's also worth noting that Tampa hasn't lost since then.)


A big deal is being made about the quarterback matchup, and rightfully so.  Brady is the best to ever do it and it really is mind-blowing that this is his 10th Super Bowl.  They also seem to be the only ones capable of beating each other.  The only playoff loss of Mahomes' career was the AFC Championship Game against Brady's Patriots two years ago.  But Mahomes has won the last two matchups, including Kansas City's Week 12 victory, and is the last quarterback to beat Brady period.

I want to say this is the rubber match, but any prediction involving Brady needs to include an asterisk since you really can never something something will happen for the "last" time with him.  But either way, one of them further cements his legacy.  Brady wins a seventh ring (one more than any other franchise) and becomes the second quarterback to win one with two different teams (joining the newly-minted Hall of Famer who was his longtime rival) or Mahomes wins his second straight (becoming the first QB to do that since Brady himself).

It's obviously about a lot more than Brady and Mahomes, though.  They both have talented, dynamic supporting casts, and we're probably gonna see a high-scoring game.  Which is why I think the defenses will actually be the key.  One of the defenses will make a big play or get a key stop.  And that team will probably end up being your winner.

Chiefs (16-2) at Buccaneers (14-5): Kansas City-My pick is Kansas City for several reasons.  First of all, the Chiefs are simply a better team.  They're the defending champions, and they're better this year.  And having to go on the road for the Super Bowl isn't nearly as big a deal as it could be for another team or in another year.

If anything, not being in Tampa all week benefits them.  The Bucs obviously have the advantages of not having to travel, sleeping in their own beds, being familiar with their surroundings and having a majority of the crowd (limited as it may be) rooting for them.  But they also had to deal with all of the Super Bowl hoopla going on while trying to go about their business as if nothing is happening.  It would be impossible for that to not be a distraction.  Even with all of Brady and Gronk's Super Bowl experience, that's something they've never dealt with before.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, didn't have to deal with any of that.  They were able to practice as if this were a regular road game.  And, frankly, that's how they should treat it.  Yes, it's the Super Bowl.  But, there's no reason to break from a regular weekly routine that has been so successful for you.  They're undefeated on the road this season, and they're able to do the same thing that's worked all year.

One of those things is not traveling into town until the night before the game.  That's obviously a change from past Super Bowls, but, again, it actually worked in Kansas City's favor.  Because they weren't flying into Tampa until Saturday whether they were playing the Packers or the Bucs.  So, the fact that Tampa Bay has been there all week and they haven't doesn't really make too big of a difference to me.

Kansas City's win in Tampa earlier this season is important, too.  That's part of the reason why I don't think it's a big deal that this is the Bucs' home stadium.  That game was late in the year, too (Week 12), so it's not a completely foreign setting.  And, if you're gonna play a road game in the Super Bowl, doing it in a stadium that's only 20 percent full is certainly the way to do it.

That crowd is in for a treat, too.  Because if this is anything like the three previous Brady vs. Mahomes matchups, it's gonna be a high-scoring spectacle.  At the very least, we won't have to endure the snooze-fest that was Brady's last Super Bowl appearance.  There will be plenty of points scored between two electrifying offenses.

Last year, the Chiefs fall behind the 49ers 20-10 before scoring three touchdowns in the final six minutes.  Brady is a notorious slow starter in Super Bowls.  In fact, I saw an incredible stat this week, that the Patriots scored a grand total of three first quarter points in their nine Bradicheck appearances (most of those were either 0-0 or 3-0 after the first quarter).  But, of course, he's also built his legend on those epic fourth quarter comebacks.

So, as we've seen, facing a fourth-quarter deficit doesn't bother either quarterback.  What I'm curious to see is how they play with a Super Bowl lead (don't forget, all of New England's wins were ridiculously close).  One of them will obviously have to get out to a lead.  Will that change the approach?  Or will we have one of those back-and-forth affairs where every touchdown is countered with a touchdown and the last team to have the ball wins?

Tampa Bay has done an outstanding job to get here.  They won three playoff road games, including victories over the top two seeds (quarterbacked by future Hall of Famers Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers).  Their reward is a home game in the Super Bowl.  It won't be a storybook ending for them, though.  The Chiefs are simply too good.  Kansas City wins 34-24.

Last Week: 1-1
Playoffs: 7-5
Overall: 173-94-1

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