NBA Expansion Candidates

It didn't really surprise me when Adam Silver said that the NBA was "open to" the idea of expansion.  They seemed content with 30 teams, but expansion to 32 still appeared to be something that was likely at some point.  Now, after one season cut short, one very expensive bubble, and another season set to begin with no fans in the stands, the idea of NBA expansion no longer seems so far-fetched.

I'm not saying an announcement is imminent.  But now that the cat's been let out of the bag, I'd be shocked if somebody put it back in.  And, frankly, the timing makes a lot of sense.  The NBA will have lost a lot of money over the course of the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons, and expansion fees are a great way for the owners to recoup some of their losses.  Of course, there would also need to be potential owners with billions of dollars in cities that have the appetite for basketball, both of which they could probably find.

One of the main reasons why the Sonics moved to Oklahoma City after the 2007-08 season was because of the arena situation in Seattle.  The arena problem is now fixed.  When the Kraken debut in the NHL next season, they'll be playing in the brand-new $930 million Climate Pledge Arena (built on the same site of the Sonics' old Key Arena).  However, while the Kraken will be the main tenant, they still plan on playing plenty of basketball there.  The WNBA-champion Storm will play there, and the return of the Sonics has never been too far from the minds of Seattle fans.

In fact, as a part of the agreement when they moved, the general understanding was that the Sonics franchise would be put "on hold" and eventually reborn either through expansion or relocation.  The Kings almost moved to Seattle a few years ago, but they stayed in Sacramento after the city agreed to build a new arena.  So, Seattle still waits.

Whenever the NBA does expand, you'd have to assume that a team would be placed in Seattle as a revived Sonics franchise.  However, you'd also have to assume that they'd add two teams so that they have an even number.  And there are plenty of intriguing options for the location of NBA team No. 32.

The most obvious is Las Vegas.  The NBA was the first major league to test the Vegas waters, playing its All-Star Game there in 2007.  It took another 10 years for Las Vegas to finally get its pro sports franchise, and the NHL struck the jackpot with the Golden Knights.  They've been so successful that they'll become the model for other expansion franchises to follow.  The Knights have been so successful that they aren't even the only show in town anymore, having been joined by the Raiders this year.

Will the NBA give Vegas its third team?  (Fun fact: when I was in grad school, we had a group project where we created an NBA expansion franchise called the "Las Vegas Rounders.")  You know they've seen the success of the Golden Knights and want in on some of that action.  You've also gotta think that there's a little bit of jealousy that the NHL beat them to Vegas.  So, the quick answer is, "Yes!"  Las Vegas would very much be in play for the other NBA expansion team.

But don't think Las Vegas is the only non-Seattle candidate worth considering.  Not even close.  Kansas City, for example, is another intriguing option.  Kansas City's obviously a hot sports town right now because of the Chiefs, but it's also in the heart of basketball country, so the fan support would be there.  They've got a beautiful arena that regularly hosts both the Big 12 and NCAA Tournaments, which was built for the purpose of attracting an NBA or NHL franchise (the Pittsburgh Penguins flirted with a move to Kansas City about 15 years ago).

However, one of the reasons the Kansas City Kings moved was because they weren't anywhere near as popular as the Kansas Jayhawks, so the NBA may be weary of trying again.  Similarly, the NBA may be hesitant about another popular option--Louisville--for a very similar reason.

Louisville is one of the largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. without a major league pro sports team.  The only pro team ever to call Louisville home was the ABA's Kentucky Colonels, who folded in 1976.  Since then, the University of Louisville has become the city's de facto pro team, and they play in a 22,000-seat downtown arena.  That's obviously plenty big enough to host an NBA team, but you'd have to wonder if they'd be overshadowed by the Cardinals, who've been an established brand in Louisville far longer.

While those are probably the three most likely options, they're far from the only ones.  Nashville could be interesting.  The Titans and Predators have both proven to be big draws, and Nashville is one of the more popular cities mentioned as a potential target for MLB expansion (along with, of course, Montreal).  A team in Nashville would also be a natural rival for Memphis.  But that's also a reason NOT to put a team in Nashville.  Do you really need a second team in Tennessee when you can just as easily build a fan base elsewhere?

Tampa has the same problem.  The city is serving as the Raptors' base of operations right now and potentially all season.  Some are seeing it as a test run for a permanent NBA team in Tampa.  It wouldn't be the first time that's happened (the Hornets temporarily relocated to Oklahoma City after Hurricane Katrina, with Oklahoma City then getting the Thunder a few years later).  Tampa's one of the largest media markets in the country, so they could easily handle a fourth pro team.  But there's also already a team in Orlando, which is only an hour and a half away.

There are two other cities I'm gonna throw out there that also seem like they'd be long shots, but would be worth considering just the same.  The first is St. Louis.  Like Louisville and Kansas City, St. Louis has a ready-to-use NBA-quality downtown arena.  Unlike Kansas City and Louisville, that arena already has a primary tenant in the Blues. 

Pittsburgh would probably be out because of its proximity to Cleveland and Detroit (and even Philadelphia and Toronto).  But if they were looking a team in the East to keep the conferences balanced (assuming the other expansion team was in Seattle), Pittsburgh could definitely be an option.  In fact, when the Penguins' PPG Paints Arena opened in 2010, David Stern mentioned that it would be a suitable home for an NBA franchise in the city.

So, like I said, should the NBA choose to expand, there would be no shortage of candidates.  I'm sure there are plenty of others, too.  I can see the city of Cincinnati, for example, including plans for a downtown arena in an NBA expansion bid. 

However, assuming one franchise is placed in Seattle, I think the other would come down to a choice between five cities: Las Vegas, Kansas City, Nashville, Tampa and Louisville.  And, while Las Vegas might be the "obvious" favorite among those options, something tells me that Kansas City would be the best choice.  So, when and if the NBA expands, I'd put the two new franchises in Seattle and Kansas City.