Delay Beijing

It's full steam ahead on next year's postponed Tokyo Olympics.  The organizers have released their very detailed plan, and they're even anticipating fans from all over the world traveling to Japan for the Games.  There are still concerns, but not enough for them to consider cancellation or another postponement (postponing again until 2022 was never going to happen--for a number of reasons--so I really wish people would stop acting like that was ever an actual option!).  So, we're set for the world to gather next summer in Tokyo.

However, even though the Tokyo Games are set to move forward no matter what, there's still an Olympic postponement worth considering.  I'm not talking about Tokyo.  I'm talking about the 2022 Winter Games in Beijing.  It's probably not something the IOC wants to think about, but a similar one-year postponement until February 2023 might not be a bad idea.

I know I sound like I'm contradicting myself.  Why do I think it's OK to hold an Olympics in Japan next summer but think the Games in China six months later should be delayed, especially since, if anything, the situation in the world should improve by then?  Because of logistical reasons.  That's why.  And there are plenty of logistical reasons why it makes sense to turn Beijing 2022 into Beijing 2023.

The most obvious reason is to ease some of the congestion on the Olympic calendar.  The Summer and Winter Olympics were, of course, held in the same year from 1924-92 before the Winter Games switched to their own four-year cycle in 1994.  It was a lot to ask of NOCs, broadcasters, sponsors and the IOC itself to have both Games only a few months apart.  That was primary reason for separating the years, which also meant the Winter Games would no longer have to play second fiddle.

With the Tokyo postponement, though, it's a quasi-return to those days.  The Opening Ceremony in Beijing is less than six months after the Closing Ceremony in Tokyo.  Then, after the Beijing Games end, it'll be 27 months until the Olympic flame is lit again in Paris.  Moving the Beijing Games back 12 months, however, would make the gaps almost even (18 months, then 15 months), which is a lot more reasonable.

We're obviously only in this situation because of circumstances beyond anybody's control, and everyone will do what they've gotta do to make sure both Games are run successfully, but that's a lot to ask of the people who'll be on the ground.  They'll have to turn around and immediately go from one to the other with virtually no break.  That's why the 2022 Youth Olympics have been cancelled.  Three Olympic-level events in 12 months is simply too much from an organizational (and financial) perspective.

Pushing the Beijing Games back a year would also make it so that winter athletes still have their showcase.  It's not as big of an issue now as it was 30 years ago because of social media and how much better the worldwide TV coverage of winter sports is, but the 2022 Winter Olympics will almost certainly still be overshadowed.  Especially since they're second.  All of the prep time NBC and the other broadcasters typically have to promote the Winter Olympics is gone.  They only have six months (and it's really five since they'll all have the Paralympics too).  (It's also worth noting here that NBC also has next season's Super Bowl, so that's three major events in six months.)

Now let's consider the athletes.  They're not exactly in the same situation as their summer counterparts, many of whom weren't able to compete at all in what should've been an Olympic year.  But that's not to say winter sports schedules haven't been impacted.  The winter sports season just started and there's already been a slew of cancellations/postponements in virtually every sport.  And a lot of those competitions that have gone on haven't had full fields because of travel restrictions. 

Who's to say when they'll be able to have full international fields again?  It may be like this all season.  And, since Olympic qualification in a lot of sports usually begins the year before the Games, that has a direct impact on their chances of qualifying.  Will there be enough events in the final months of 2021 and January 2022 to provide enough opportunities?

Some of those cancelled events were Olympic test events in Beijing.  Virtually all of these athletes have competed in China before, and some have even competed at the Olympic venue, but Olympic test events are important for more than just the athletes.  These test events (which are required) will now also need to be squeezed into the final months of 2021 instead of being held when the Olympics will be in February (and the weather is theoretically what you'd expect for the Olympics).

Then there are the fans.  There are already a lot of people from all over the world who were planning on going to Tokyo and no longer are.  You'd have to figure there would be a similar, maybe even greater, hesitancy to go to China in the winter--vaccine or not.  After all, this whole thing started in China.  It seems far more likely that the world will be somewhat normal again by February 2023, though.  And if that's the case, people should be less hesitant to travel and the stadiums could be full.

That's another key factor worth considering.  An Olympics with no fans wouldn't be any fun for anybody.  That's why I'm glad Tokyo thinks having even limited crowds will be possible.  Chances are Beijing will be able to have crowds in February 2022.  However, those crowds may be limited, especially for the indoor events (which just happen to be the two most popular Winter Olympic sports).  In February 2023, though, there's no reason to think they wouldn't be able to have packed houses at all events.

Finally, it would remove any uncertainty.  At this point, there's no reason to believe the Beijing Games won't be able to go ahead as planned in February 2022.  But we also thought that about the Tokyo Games as late as February.  And, again, the two Olympics being so close to each other means a lot of decisions about Beijing may be put on the back burner until after Tokyo.  By then it might be too late.

Of course, it was an extraordinary situation that led to the postponement of the 2020 Olympics until 2021.  There was no other option.  A similarly extraordinary situation occurring again seems incredibly unlikely.  But that doesn't mean a similar postponement of the 2022 Winter Games until 2023 wouldn't be a good idea.